Treasure Chest RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RICHARD silas	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
2	TANG William	-	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
3	LOFTUS Luca	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
3	CHOI Zachary	-	-	1%	7%	33%	44%	15%
5	CHEN Bailey	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
6	TONG Samuel	-	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
7	LI Yunji	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
8	CHANG Andrew	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
9	LEVENTAL Mark	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
10	LI Ethan R.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
11	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	29%	7%
12	YU Austin	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
13	SIM Ian	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
14	MANA Arnav	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
15	WAGHOLIKAR Prathit	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
16	WANG Devin	-	6%	28%	41%	22%	3%
17	MA Ryan	-	7%	31%	40%	18%	2%
18	ZHAO Colin	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
19	ZHAO Yihan	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
20	REID Wesley	3%	21%	41%	29%	5%	-	-
21	HIGGINS Calvin	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%
22	WU Eric	-	-	1%	10%	40%	39%	10%
23	GUO Woody	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
24	LEUNG Dylan	2%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
25	CLAES Thomas	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	10%
26	BAKKEN Archer	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
26	HSU Joshua	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	4%
28	YAN Eric	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	20%	3%
29	WONG Preston	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%	-	-
30	WU Steven	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
31	CHAUDHURI Kabir	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
32	QIAO James	7%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
33	LAU Alex	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	8%
34	DENG Andes	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
35	ZHOU Lawrence	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
36	YAO Tristan	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3%
36	HOROWITZ Gavin	22%	49%	24%	5%	-	-
38	GUIRAUDET Alistair	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
39	JAO Aaron	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
40	JAMES Kaden	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
41	COLLINS Kaden	3%	24%	49%	21%	3%	-
42	LIU Max	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
43	LAM Ethan	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
44	NARAYANUN Advay	46%	43%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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