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Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 1:00 PM

Boston , MA - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GARCIA-ROGERS Lucas H.	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
2	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris E.	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
3	PLOTNICHENKO Vsevolod	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
3	LANGTON Sawyer	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	23%
5	FERREIRA Noah J.	-	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
6	SHAH Maximilian A.	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
7	GOHEL Dayus T.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	16%
8	HA Daniel	-	5%	23%	40%	25%	6%	1%
9	EKE Frank	-	-	2%	12%	40%	47%
10	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	17%
11	MATEI Daniel	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	-
12	JIN Owen	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	23%	5%
13	SIDDIQUI Humza K.	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	5%
14	WEI Michael	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
15	WU Joseph	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
16	RICHARD Owen	-	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
17	COLLYMORE Spencer T.	-	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
18	SKAALAND Will	-	4%	16%	35%	33%	11%	1%
19	KARAMANIAN Nicholas	49%	38%	11%	2%	< 1%	-	-
20	DIBENERDINI Aidan	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
21	SIMPSON Patrick	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%	-
22	DESTEFANO Julius	-	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
23	STEWART Charlie	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
24	HANSEN William	2%	13%	29%	32%	19%	5%	1%
25	MISHIMA Torata	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	-
26	PAHLAVI Kamran	10%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
27	PARK Frederick	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
28	PRIHODKO Max	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
29	KUMAR Aidan	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	9%	1%
30	ZHANG Braydon	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
31	ROLLO Emmett H.	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	-
32	CHOI Mason	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
34	GRAYSON Joshua	5%	41%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
35	GAVIN Liam	10%	32%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
36	GONG Haixiang	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
37	KUBATIN Anton V.	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
38	WALCH Logan	8%	41%	37%	12%	2%	-	-
39	SHAO Haian	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
40	WU Jonathan	26%	47%	22%	4%	-	-	-
41	WRIGLEY Matthew	10%	48%	32%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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