Savage Fencing Club Oktoberfecht Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM

Savage Fencing Club - Savage, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NORTH Gary S.	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	KENYON Jacob	-	-	-	7%	47%	46%
3	CHEN Brian	-	-	3%	19%	46%	29%	5%
3	WOLFE Alex	-	-	1%	9%	34%	43%	13%
5	LEE Aiden	-	1%	10%	33%	39%	16%	1%
6	TIKHONOV Daniel	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
7	DISIMONE David Z.	-	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
8	RIVERA RIVERA Christian	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	5%	-
9	YANG Gary	-	-	7%	28%	40%	21%	4%
10	TIKHONOV Iliya	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
11	BOUDREAUX James	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
12	DICKENS Robert W.	-	-	1%	13%	51%	35%
13	ARMSTRONG TyLee	-	9%	39%	43%	8%	-
14	WITTER Catherine A.	-	-	2%	17%	40%	32%	9%
15	SNYDER IV William B.	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	50%
16	SWICK Kerry J.	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
17	LEE Anton	-	10%	37%	36%	14%	3%	-
18	SEIKEL Spencer	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
19	COFFEY Jacob	-	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
20	EVANS Grant	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
21	MEGGERS Samuel	-	10%	36%	36%	15%	2%	-
22	IHRIE Greg H.	1%	9%	29%	39%	18%	3%	-
23	LEECH Braedan	3%	28%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
24	HELMINTOLLER Christian	-	4%	22%	39%	26%	8%	1%
25	WU Shaochi	1%	25%	49%	22%	3%	-	-
26	CHAWLA Aarav	2%	18%	46%	30%	4%	-
27	BUCCELLATO Joel S.	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%	1%
28	WALKER Benjamin	-	2%	9%	27%	38%	22%	2%
29	WOOLF Fredrika	5%	39%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
30	KENYON Benjamin	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
31	MARSH Alex	3%	25%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
32	LIN Haley	1%	41%	44%	13%	1%	-	-
33	MERIWETHER Anne	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
34	HALE Bradley	42%	50%	8%	-	-	-
35	TAN Theodore	75%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
36	LORENZ Nathan	36%	53%	10%	1%	-	-	-
37	SAVAGE Austin	1%	33%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
38	THIBAULT Azzy	26%	46%	24%	4%	-	-
39	FONS Amandine	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-	-
40	ECKENROAD Hannah	63%	33%	4%	-	-	-	-
41	CHEN Shanshan	94%	6%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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