December NAC

Div I Men's Épée

Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 THOMPSON Soren 100% 100% 98% 89% 65% 31% 7%
2 HOYLE Jacob C. 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 44% 12%
3 LAWSON Nicholas W. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 62% 37% 16% 4% -
3 MATVEEV Valentin S. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 62% 36% 14% 3% -
5 KRAFT Dennis A. 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 34% 7%
6 ZACHARAKIS Darius K. 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 68% 44% 22% 8% 2% - -
7 RAMIREZ Yeisser 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 29% 6%
8 KUMASHI Mihir R. 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 4% -
9 MCDOWALD Curtis E. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 65% 25%
10 PRYOR Jason A. 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 29% 6%
11 TSINIS Alexander E. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 10%
12 ZMYSLOWSKI Maciek A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 82% 61% 35% 14% 4% -
13 LANGE Henry C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 78% 55% 29% 9% 1%
14 VOLKMANN Daniel R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 67% 41% 18% 5% 1%
15 WEISS Miles J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 73% 48% 24% 8% 2% -
16 VINNITCHOUK Theodore (Ted) 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 11%
17 EWART Jr. Stephen P. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 28%
18 SIMMONS Ariel (Ari) J. 100% 100% 99% 96% 82% 51% 16%
19 ZHANG Joshua 100% 99% 89% 62% 28% 7% 1%
20 SCHUMACHER Cooper (Shoey) J. 100% 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 9%
21 KAULL James T. 100% 100% 97% 87% 61% 28% 6%
22 RODNEY Adam R. 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
23 PISKOVATSKOV Jonathan (Yonik) 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 29% 6%
24 MECKE Cedric 100% 99% 92% 71% 39% 13% 2%
25 DUNCAN Corwin 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
26 LARSEN Samuel F. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 63% 38% 17% 5% 1% -
27 SHERRILL Edward R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 69% 44% 21% 7% 1% -
28 HESSLEGRAVE Porter B. 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 78% 56% 32% 13% 4% 1% - -
29 VAYSBERG Nathan 100% 98% 84% 53% 21% 4% -
30 SMITH Dwight 100% 98% 88% 62% 30% 8% 1%
30 MA Ark 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 68% 44% 22% 8% 2% - -
32 CANAUX Gabriel A. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
33 HADZIC Alen 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 74% 33%
34 YOO Justin H. 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 18%
35 BROUGHTON Josiah W. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 74% 51% 27% 11% 3% 1% - -
35 WHITE Sean 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 20%
37 SAITOC Tudor 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 86% 68% 44% 21% 7% 1% -
38 NOLLNER Dylan 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 29% 6%
39 LIVERANT Skyler J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 67% 42% 20% 7% 1% -
40 MOORE Shomari A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 54% 28% 10% 2% -
41 YERGLER Jonathan A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 82% 61% 36% 16% 5% 1% -
42 WHITE Khristopher E. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 82% 61% 37% 17% 6% 1% - -
43 SZAPARY Tristan B. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 90% 74% 50% 25% 8% 1%
44 JONES Simon A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 91% 77% 56% 32% 14% 4% 1% -
45 XU Timothy (Tingwei) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 57% 31% 12% 3% -
46 PHILIPPINE Matthias A. 100% 100% 100% 97% 89% 73% 50% 28% 12% 3% 1% - -
47 SLAVINSKIY Alan 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 82% 61% 37% 16% 5% 1% -
48 SPITERI Gareth J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 80% 57% 32% 13% 4% 1% -
49 RAYLE Evan K. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 53% 29% 11% 3% - -
50 CUMMINGS Atticus C. 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 69% 46% 24% 9% 2% - -
51 SHINDLER Oliver P. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 79% 57% 31% 12% 3% -
51 KUSHNERIK Ethan 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 68% 43% 21% 7% 2% - -
53 KIMATIAN Harrison J. 100% 99% 94% 76% 45% 16% 3%
54 STUSNICK Hunter 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 85% 66% 42% 21% 7% 2% - -
55 FAYEZ Ayman A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 71% 43% 17% 3%
56 GRIFFITHS Ryan 100% 99% 94% 75% 44% 16% 3%
56 BEAULIEU Loic 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 81% 60% 35% 15% 5% 1% -
58 ELLIS Yehia S. 100% 100% 98% 91% 75% 52% 28% 12% 4% 1% - - -
59 HADDAD Justin R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 53% 27% 9% 1%
60 ZHU Zimo 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 73% 49% 25% 9% 2% -
61 ELASHRY Zeyad A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 75% 50% 25% 9% 2% -
62 ZUCKER Noah L. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 81% 61% 36% 17% 6% 1% - -
63 JEONG Connor 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 61% 36% 16% 5% 1% - -
64 MIELE Benjamin 100% 100% 99% 93% 78% 55% 31% 13% 4% 1% - - -
65 PISKOVATSKOV Anton 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 62% 22%
66 SHIN Sung (Andy) 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 68% 44% 22% 8% 2% - -
67 FRANK Timmy 100% 99% 88% 60% 27% 7% 1%
68 DOLGONOS Mark 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 78% 55% 30% 13% 4% 1% - -
69 BEDOR William J. 100% 100% 100% 97% 90% 74% 51% 28% 11% 3% 1% - -
70 WIEDER Benjamin (Ben) J. 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 54% 31% 13% 4% 1% - -
71 MAISONET-GUZMAN Hector E. 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 80% 59% 34% 15% 4% 1% -
72 LAURON Sean M. 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 76% 54% 30% 12% 4% 1% - -
73 ZAFFT Maximo S. 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 65% 39% 18% 6% 1% - - -
74 THEIN-SANDLER Adrien (Adi) M. 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 23% 4%
75 HURME Tommi K. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 82% 60% 35% 15% 4% 1% - -
75 NORTH Gary S. 100% 98% 86% 59% 27% 7% 1%
77 TEMIRYAEV Alan L. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 80% 57% 30% 10% 2%
78 FISHLER Clifford 100% 100% 100% 96% 84% 61% 35% 15% 4% 1% - - -
79 MCGAW Julian E. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 76% 54% 30% 12% 3% 1% -
80 CARNAHAN Garrett M. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 80% 57% 30% 10% 1%
81 TAFOYA Devin D. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 88% 72% 49% 26% 10% 2% -
82 GUO Austin S. 100% 100% 96% 85% 65% 40% 19% 7% 2% - - - -
83 WEISS Lewis E. 100% 97% 81% 49% 19% 4% -
84 WEI Zikun 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 54% 29% 11% 3% - -
85 KAMBESELES Peter G. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 74% 50% 27% 11% 3% 1% - -
86 MACZIK Adam W. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 76% 54% 30% 12% 3% 1% -
86 LAVENSTEIN Kinley V. 100% 99% 92% 76% 51% 27% 11% 3% 1% - - - -
88 DAO Matthew M. 100% 100% 98% 89% 72% 47% 24% 9% 3% 1% - - -
88 WOZNIAK Sebastian 100% 97% 83% 57% 31% 12% 4% 1% - - - - -
90 INSLER Gabriel 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 66% 39% 18% 6% 1% - - -
90 LIANG Aaron 100% 100% 96% 84% 62% 36% 15% 5% 1% - - - -
92 BRATTON Benjamin E. 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
93 DOAN Joseph M. 100% 100% 97% 86% 65% 39% 18% 6% 1% - - - -
94 SHUGART Henry R. 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 65% 40% 18% 6% 1% - -
94 ALAIMO Charles 100% 100% 95% 80% 54% 28% 11% 3% 1% - - - -
96 MERCHANT Reza H. 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 70% 47% 25% 10% 3% - -
97 HOLTZ Donovan K. 100% 91% 65% 31% 9% 2% -
97 SUVOROV Yuly 100% 100% 97% 87% 67% 42% 20% 7% 2% - - - -
99 GAIDAR Daniel B. 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
100 ISAAC Joseph (Izzy) 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 61% 21%
101 MADISON Ethan S. 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 4%
102 CANDELA Nicholas 100% 100% 98% 89% 60% 24% 4%
103 BENACK Steven M. 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 17%
104 MAISEL Simon F. 100% 100% 98% 84% 52% 18% 3%
105 MECHKOV Iliya 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 19% 3%
106 FEINBERG Gabriel M. 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
107 ZAGORUIKO Ivan 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
108 ROBINSON Riley 100% 100% 93% 70% 34% 9% 1%
109 BREWER Andrew K. 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 29% 5%
110 CULLEN Daniel F. 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 2% -
111 GUINAN Joseph 100% 97% 81% 50% 20% 4% -
112 MARSHALL John W. 100% 99% 93% 69% 34% 10% 1%
112 EDWARDS Ethan S. 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 10% 1%
114 LEE Ryan 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 19% 3%
115 LICHTEN Keith H. 100% 100% 95% 80% 49% 17% 3%
116 JAYENDRA Chandrashekar 100% 96% 78% 46% 17% 4% -
117 VERMEULE Spencer 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 18%
118 XU Zitong (Evan) 100% 96% 71% 34% 9% 1% -
119 RAFIDI Joseph (Joey) F. 100% 100% 95% 78% 48% 18% 3%
120 YU Colin 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
120 GIBSON Nowell L. 100% 100% 94% 75% 41% 13% 2%
122 LEIGH David A. 100% 98% 83% 49% 16% 2%
123 MARAKOV Allen B. 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 28% 5%
123 ZHOU Alan 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
125 POPPER Luca G. 100% 99% 91% 67% 35% 11% 1%
126 MUNLIN Donovan 100% 100% 98% 85% 57% 23% 4%
127 BARREIRO Darren 100% 98% 79% 44% 14% 2% -
128 SNYDER IV William B. 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 15% 2%
129 SMITH Justin C. 100% 99% 95% 76% 44% 15% 2%
129 FRANK Fred 100% 94% 67% 30% 7% 1% -
129 PAVLENISHVILI David G. 100% 98% 84% 55% 23% 5% 1%
129 MALYSZ Anthony J. 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 11% 1%
133 ARIETA Ryan T. 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 24% 4%
134 IYOKI Kent 100% 99% 92% 72% 41% 14% 2%
135 KIM Juni C. 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 15% 2%
136 DOSS David A. 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 44% 12%
137 MOSES Alexander 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 7% 1%
138 ZUBECK Dominic 100% 99% 86% 51% 17% 3% -
139 NGUYEN Ethan D. 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 11%
140 CLINGSHOFF Christopher 100% 72% 32% 8% 1% - -
140 WALSH Kevin 100% 74% 33% 8% 1% - -
142 ALVIOR Joshua Aethan B. 100% 82% 42% 12% 2% - -
142 KIM Ethan J. 100% 97% 82% 51% 21% 5% -
144 MANDOKI Sandor I. 100% 99% 95% 79% 49% 19% 3%
145 SJOSTEDT Jacob H. 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 4%
145 KOFROTH Zachary R. 100% 91% 64% 29% 8% 1% -
147 MUN Michael K. 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 21% 4%
148 MOOSEKIAN Stafford 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 30% 6%
149 WOZNIAK David 100% 98% 83% 49% 17% 2%
150 FULLER George K. 100% 98% 86% 56% 23% 5% -
151 ZHU Wilson 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
152 IVAKIMOV Vasil 100% 98% 87% 61% 29% 8% 1%
153 HILBERT Xavier 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 23% 4%
154 KAMBESELES Jack M. 100% 99% 93% 73% 41% 13% 2%
155 CUMMINGS Kai W. 100% 72% 32% 8% 1% - -
156 POLAKOSKI David R. 100% 93% 66% 31% 9% 1% -
157 JEON Alexander E. 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 17% 2%
158 HUDSON Jeffrey (Jeff) A. 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 23% 4%
159 MARCHANT Albert J. 100% 97% 74% 37% 11% 2% -
160 COULL Abraham (Abe) 100% 90% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
161 LAWLER Aidan 100% 94% 58% 19% 3% - -
162 RODNEY Maxwell 100% 68% 23% 4% - - -
163 TAMULONIS Fen C. 100% 88% 56% 24% 6% 1% -
163 FOWLER James A. 100% 96% 77% 45% 16% 3% -
165 SHACKLEFORD Aidan J. 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
166 PARK Jong-Eun 100% 89% 56% 21% 5% 1% -
167 RUSSANOV Dennis 100% 97% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
168 KIM Alexander 100% 99% 89% 61% 28% 7% 1%
169 SHENG Patrick Y. 100% 97% 80% 50% 20% 5% -
170 BODON Michele I. 100% 100% 96% 78% 45% 15% 2%
171 POLKOVSKY Dylan S. 100% 98% 85% 55% 23% 5% -
172 SHORT Salim (Sal) A. 100% 88% 57% 24% 6% 1% -
173 KANG Michael H. 100% 98% 84% 52% 21% 4% -
174 FERGUSON Ross A. 100% 97% 80% 45% 15% 2% -
175 SHIREY Daniel L. 100% 99% 88% 55% 20% 4% -
176 JOHNSON Lucas W. 100% 99% 92% 67% 31% 8% 1%
177 SNIDER Jeffrey H. 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
178 XIAO Zherui 100% 84% 45% 13% 2% - -
179 LEAVITT III Philip N. 100% 87% 54% 21% 5% 1% -
180 ZHOU Alec Q. 100% 62% 21% 4% - - -
181 JELEV Mario I. 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 19% 3%
182 DEO Ameya 100% 68% 22% 4% - - -
183 NIXON Christian A. 100% 81% 41% 12% 2% - -
183 ZHENG Hagen 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
185 BISSINGER Michael P. 100% 100% 99% 93% 74% 40% 10%
186 KARAUSKY Joshua C. 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
187 YAO Shun 100% 76% 30% 6% 1% - -
188 MUNOZ Charles O. 100% 46% 10% 1% - - -
188 SITBON-TAYLOR Noe B. 100% 98% 86% 57% 25% 6% 1%
190 MEHALL Michael 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
191 CHIEN Zachary M. 100% 99% 89% 64% 30% 8% 1%
192 SAYLOR Harrison G. 100% 94% 69% 33% 9% 1% -
193 BURTON Patrick 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 7% 1%
194 WALKER IV Weymouth D. 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
195 CHIZ Max H. 100% 77% 36% 10% 2% - -
196 BLYTH Jourdain L. 100% 98% 87% 60% 28% 7% 1%
197 SMITH Nicholas S. 100% 82% 46% 16% 3% - -
198 PROCTOR Oliver L. 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 6% 1%
199 FARQUHARSON Cole 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
200 SMITH Brandon J. 100% 31% 4% - - - -
201 HERRICK Christopher K. 100% 92% 66% 32% 10% 2% -
202 PAEK Alex J. 100% 96% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
203 MANCINI Christopher M. 100% 99% 92% 70% 37% 11% 1%
204 KRUGER Mark (Mark Kruger) 100% 45% 10% 1% - - -
205 NG Alexander M. 100% 53% 14% 2% - -
206 CARTER Austin L. 100% 96% 77% 42% 14% 3% -
206 LEE Alexander G. 100% 98% 83% 52% 21% 4% -
208 NOWAK Jakub P. 100% 98% 88% 63% 31% 9% 1%
208 KILUK Andrew 100% 67% 26% 5% 1% - -
208 VANDERVELDE Pierce F. 100% 83% 43% 12% 2% - -
211 TIERNEY Luke 100% 47% 11% 1% - - -
211 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 100% 63% 20% 3% - - -
213 PADHYE Siddhant 100% 72% 32% 8% 1% - -
214 LOCASALE Nicholas A. 100% 42% 9% 1% - - -
214 SMAY II Joseph E. 100% 65% 24% 5% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.