Premier Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KARIMOV Amir - - 1% 7% 26% 43% 22%
2 TRAN Spencer - - - 2% 14% 42% 42%
3 PARKER Isaiah - - 1% 6% 23% 44% 26%
3 TSE Maxwell - - - 2% 14% 40% 43%
5 CHEN Edward - - 4% 19% 39% 30% 7%
6 LIU Adam - - - 1% 12% 40% 47%
7 MITEV Alexander - - - 1% 7% 33% 60%
8 KIM Henry - - 2% 13% 39% 46%
9 NORMILE Nicholas - - - - 2% 19% 79%
10 SINGLETON Aman - - - 3% 19% 46% 32%
11 CHEN Zhengyang (Allen) - - - 4% 18% 41% 36%
12 ZHAI Junqi - 5% 22% 36% 27% 9% 1%
13 ZIEGLER John - - - 4% 18% 41% 36%
14 BRADSHAW Carter - - - 3% 18% 48% 31%
15 NG Nico - 3% 15% 33% 33% 13% 2%
16 GUMEDELLI Mohnish - - 1% 11% 33% 40% 15%
17 MEHROTRA Neel - - - 4% 18% 41% 36%
18 SOLARZ Arthur - 3% 14% 33% 34% 14% 2%
18 CHEN Leonardo - - - 1% 6% 31% 63%
20 DOUBOV Andrew - - - 3% 27% 70%
21 BOUDREAUX James - - - 3% 16% 42% 39%
22 LIDSKY Phineas - - 2% 10% 30% 39% 19%
23 GOVOROV Alexander - 6% 25% 39% 24% 6% -
24 KOGAN Yelisey L. 12% 33% 35% 17% 4% -
25 LI Jade - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 6%
26 HE Bronto - 4% 17% 33% 32% 13% 1%
27 AHMED Mohsen - - - 5% 23% 44% 28%
28 LI Morgan - 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 2%
29 LUO Alexander 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 4%
30 SZCZAPA Lukas 1% 11% 30% 35% 19% 4% -
31 PAN Anthony - 1% 6% 22% 37% 28% 7%
32 GLUSHKOV David - 2% 11% 29% 36% 19% 2%
33 CAFASSO Alexander - 1% 9% 31% 39% 18% 1%
34 GAO Victor - - 3% 17% 38% 34% 8%
35 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus - - 5% 19% 36% 31% 9%
36 MANSFIELD Hunter 1% 13% 32% 34% 17% 3% -
37 ARMSTRONG Payson 4% 23% 42% 26% 5% -
38 CHAN Kyle Si Tin 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3% -
39 YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki - 2% 9% 26% 36% 23% 5%
40 KABA Elias - 1% 8% 27% 39% 21% 3%
41 CHEN Aiden 1% 15% 34% 32% 15% 3% -
42 LI Ryan 1% 13% 33% 33% 15% 3% -
43 HU HAOYUE - - 4% 17% 36% 33% 9%
44 O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar - 1% 9% 27% 36% 22% 5%
45 PARIGIAN Alexander - 6% 23% 35% 26% 8% 1%
46 CHEN Tianjun - 1% 10% 31% 39% 17% 1%
47 CHEN Jayden - - 2% 12% 34% 40% 13%
48 MILINKOVIC Maksim - 4% 16% 32% 32% 14% 1%
49 ZHANG Marcus 1% 7% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1%
50 CUELLAR Markus 1% 7% 23% 34% 25% 9% 1%
51 HELMY Richard - 5% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2%
52 BHANDARE Veer - 7% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1%
53 LEE Henry 1% 14% 33% 33% 16% 3% -
54 WANG Charles 1% 8% 27% 37% 21% 5% -
55 CUMMINGS Owen - 1% 11% 37% 43% 8%
56 NOOL Alexander 1% 11% 34% 40% 14% 1%
57 SUH Aiden 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
58 SUN Lucas 1% 6% 23% 36% 25% 7% 1%
59 ROBINSON Garrett 7% 27% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
60 PETINO Leonardo 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
61 CHALLAMEL Hadrien 18% 38% 30% 11% 2% - -
62 BENNETT Nathaniel 9% 34% 36% 16% 4% - -
63 ORESKOVIC Olivier 1% 5% 20% 34% 29% 11% 1%
64 CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau - 1% 6% 22% 38% 28% 6%
65 LAU LUCAS 2% 11% 28% 34% 20% 5% -
66 TSIEN Richard - 1% 11% 33% 38% 16% 1%
67 ZHANG Jonathan - 1% 12% 33% 37% 15% 2%
68 LI Ray 1% 7% 27% 39% 21% 5% -
68 WANG Marcus 3% 17% 36% 32% 11% 1% -
70 AU Joshua 1% 7% 24% 38% 25% 5% -
71 BOUCHACOURT Arthur - 5% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2%
72 THOMAS Andrew 17% 41% 31% 10% 2% - -
73 THOMAS Ethan 1% 9% 27% 37% 21% 4% -
74 ALABI Azryl 7% 27% 36% 23% 6% 1%
75 HOLCOMB Liam 19% 43% 29% 7% 1% -
76 CHEN Cameron 2% 17% 38% 31% 10% 1% -
77 LEE Connor - 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
78 ZHENG Jason 8% 28% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
79 FRIEDMAN Andres 2% 16% 37% 31% 11% 2% -
80 FOGEL Jake 14% 40% 33% 11% 2% - -
81 CHO Adrian 1% 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1%
82 CZEPLA Andrew 1% 7% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1%
82 LEE Ryan 47% 41% 11% 1% - - -
84 MOZZER Nolan 5% 22% 35% 26% 10% 2% -
84 YU David 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% - -
86 KUSACTAY Eric 6% 24% 35% 24% 8% 1% -
87 HANNA Alexander 2% 19% 40% 29% 8% 1% -
87 STEVENS Owen 1% 9% 31% 37% 18% 3% -
87 KHAW-BRIOT Julien 10% 38% 36% 13% 2% - -
90 CHAN Tyler 30% 43% 22% 5% 1% - -
91 LIU George 17% 36% 31% 13% 3% - -
92 CHEN Jayden A 19% 40% 30% 10% 1% - -
93 CHEN Evan 9% 29% 36% 20% 5% -
94 ROSIELLO Francesco 4% 29% 39% 22% 6% 1% -
95 JIANG Aidan 51% 39% 10% 1% - - -
96 MAKOLO Hudson 2% 12% 30% 34% 17% 4% -
96 KIM Louie 41% 41% 15% 3% - - -
98 EFFRON Silas 8% 28% 37% 21% 5% 1% -
99 TOPRANI Valmik 29% 41% 23% 6% 1% - -
99 WELCH Sebastian 29% 46% 20% 4% - - -
101 CARPENTER Touma S. 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 3% -
102 LAW Oliver 17% 46% 29% 7% 1% - -
103 JOHNSON Lincoln 18% 41% 30% 10% 1% - -
104 XIE Richard 60% 32% 7% 1% - - -
105 SHAPIRO Samuel 35% 43% 18% 3% - - -
106 KIM Zac 5% 22% 35% 27% 10% 1% -
107 O'BRIEN Michael 64% 30% 5% - - - -
107 WAGNER Bennett 67% 28% 5% - - - -
109 WEI Noah 29% 47% 21% 3% - - -
110 RUDIGER George 30% 45% 21% 4% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.