Premier Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KARIMOV Amir 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 66% 22%
2 TRAN Spencer 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 42%
3 PARKER Isaiah 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 70% 26%
3 TSE Maxwell 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 43%
5 CHEN Edward 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 37% 7%
6 LIU Adam 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 47%
7 MITEV Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 60%
8 KIM Henry 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 46%
9 NORMILE Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 79%
10 SINGLETON Aman 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 32%
11 CHEN Zhengyang (Allen) 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 36%
12 ZHAI Junqi 100% 100% 94% 73% 37% 9% 1%
13 ZIEGLER John 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 36%
14 BRADSHAW Carter 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 31%
15 NG Nico 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 15% 2%
16 GUMEDELLI Mohnish 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 55% 15%
17 MEHROTRA Neel 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 36%
18 SOLARZ Arthur 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 16% 2%
18 CHEN Leonardo 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 63%
20 DOUBOV Andrew 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 70%
21 BOUDREAUX James 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 39%
22 LIDSKY Phineas 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 60% 20%
23 GOVOROV Alexander 100% 100% 94% 69% 30% 6% -
24 KOGAN Yelisey L. 100% 88% 56% 21% 4% -
25 LI Jade 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
26 HE Bronto 100% 100% 95% 79% 46% 14% 1%
27 AHMED Mohsen 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 72% 28%
28 LI Morgan 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 16% 2%
29 LUO Alexander 100% 99% 89% 61% 24% 4%
30 SZCZAPA Lukas 100% 99% 88% 58% 23% 5% -
31 PAN Anthony 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 34% 7%
32 GLUSHKOV David 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 22% 2%
33 CAFASSO Alexander 100% 100% 99% 90% 58% 19% 1%
34 GAO Victor 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 42% 8%
35 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 39% 9%
36 MANSFIELD Hunter 100% 99% 86% 54% 20% 4% -
37 ARMSTRONG Payson 100% 96% 73% 31% 5% -
38 CHAN Kyle Si Tin 100% 97% 81% 48% 18% 3% -
39 YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
40 KABA Elias 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 24% 3%
41 CHEN Aiden 100% 99% 84% 50% 18% 3% -
42 LI Ryan 100% 99% 85% 52% 19% 3% -
43 HU HAOYUE 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 9%
44 O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar 100% 100% 99% 89% 62% 26% 5%
45 PARIGIAN Alexander 100% 100% 93% 71% 35% 9% 1%
46 CHEN Tianjun 100% 100% 99% 89% 58% 19% 1%
47 CHEN Jayden 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 53% 13%
48 MILINKOVIC Maksim 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 15% 1%
49 ZHANG Marcus 100% 99% 92% 67% 31% 7% 1%
50 CUELLAR Markus 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
51 HELMY Richard 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 14% 2%
52 BHANDARE Veer 100% 100% 92% 68% 32% 8% 1%
53 LEE Henry 100% 99% 85% 53% 19% 3% -
54 WANG Charles 100% 99% 91% 64% 26% 5% -
55 CUMMINGS Owen 100% 100% 99% 87% 51% 8%
56 NOOL Alexander 100% 99% 88% 55% 15% 1%
57 SUH Aiden 100% 97% 82% 49% 16% 2%
58 SUN Lucas 100% 99% 93% 70% 34% 8% 1%
59 ROBINSON Garrett 100% 93% 65% 29% 7% 1% -
60 PETINO Leonardo 100% 96% 75% 41% 13% 2% -
61 CHALLAMEL Hadrien 100% 82% 43% 13% 2% - -
62 BENNETT Nathaniel 100% 91% 56% 20% 4% - -
63 ORESKOVIC Olivier 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 12% 1%
64 CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 34% 6%
65 LAU LUCAS 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5% -
66 TSIEN Richard 100% 100% 99% 87% 54% 16% 1%
67 ZHANG Jonathan 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 17% 2%
68 LI Ray 100% 99% 92% 65% 26% 5% -
68 WANG Marcus 100% 97% 80% 44% 13% 1% -
70 AU Joshua 100% 99% 93% 70% 31% 6% -
71 BOUCHACOURT Arthur 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 13% 2%
72 THOMAS Andrew 100% 83% 42% 12% 2% - -
73 THOMAS Ethan 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 5% -
74 ALABI Azryl 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1%
75 HOLCOMB Liam 100% 81% 37% 8% 1% -
76 CHEN Cameron 100% 98% 81% 43% 12% 1% -
77 LEE Connor 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 14% 2%
78 ZHENG Jason 100% 92% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
79 FRIEDMAN Andres 100% 98% 81% 44% 13% 2% -
80 FOGEL Jake 100% 86% 46% 13% 2% - -
81 CHO Adrian 100% 99% 90% 62% 27% 6% 1%
82 CZEPLA Andrew 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 7% 1%
82 LEE Ryan 100% 53% 12% 1% - - -
84 MOZZER Nolan 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 2% -
84 YU David 100% 83% 46% 15% 3% - -
86 KUSACTAY Eric 100% 94% 69% 34% 10% 1% -
87 HANNA Alexander 100% 98% 79% 38% 9% 1% -
87 STEVENS Owen 100% 99% 90% 59% 21% 4% -
87 KHAW-BRIOT Julien 100% 90% 52% 16% 2% - -
90 CHAN Tyler 100% 70% 27% 6% 1% - -
91 LIU George 100% 83% 48% 17% 3% - -
92 CHEN Jayden A 100% 81% 41% 12% 2% - -
93 CHEN Evan 100% 91% 62% 26% 5% -
94 ROSIELLO Francesco 100% 96% 67% 28% 6% 1% -
95 JIANG Aidan 100% 49% 11% 1% - - -
96 MAKOLO Hudson 100% 98% 86% 56% 21% 4% -
96 KIM Louie 100% 59% 18% 3% - - -
98 EFFRON Silas 100% 92% 64% 27% 6% 1% -
99 TOPRANI Valmik 100% 71% 30% 7% 1% - -
99 WELCH Sebastian 100% 71% 24% 4% - - -
101 CARPENTER Touma S. 100% 98% 86% 54% 20% 4% -
102 LAW Oliver 100% 83% 37% 8% 1% - -
103 JOHNSON Lincoln 100% 81% 40% 11% 1% - -
104 XIE Richard 100% 40% 8% 1% - - -
105 SHAPIRO Samuel 100% 65% 22% 4% - - -
106 KIM Zac 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 1% -
107 O'BRIEN Michael 100% 36% 6% - - - -
107 WAGNER Bennett 100% 33% 5% - - - -
109 WEI Noah 100% 71% 24% 4% - - -
110 RUDIGER George 100% 70% 25% 4% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.