Capitol Clash SYC/RCC & Y8

Y-12 Men's Épée

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center - National Harbor, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LUO Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
2 ARMSTRONG Payson 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 27%
3 MOSLEY Wally 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 52%
3 TANG Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 47%
5 KARYUCHENKO Yehor 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 81%
6 YAO Ryan 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 37%
7 ZHANG Aiden 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 16%
8 ZHANG Chaoyi(Joey) 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 37%
9 KROPP Wesley 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 69%
10 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 46%
11 YOO Lucas 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 23% 4%
12 PURCELL Jonathan 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
13 ZHUKOV Egor 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 7%
14 JIN Noah 100% 100% 96% 81% 51% 18% 3%
15 KUYKENDALL Lucas 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
16 CHUNG Daehyun Daniel 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 4%
17 ZHOU Luke 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 20%
18 BEN-YOSEPH Rafael 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
19 KO Ethan 100% 99% 94% 77% 46% 17% 3%
20 GEVA Reuben 100% 100% 100% 94% 71% 27%
21 WU MiEr 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 47%
22 FANG Charlie 100% 100% 97% 80% 41% 7%
23 WU James 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 7% 1%
24 CHIANG William 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 14%
25 KIM Brendan 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
26 NOOL Aaron 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 21%
27 YAO Aiden 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 20%
28 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 14%
29 LANE Sawyer 100% 100% 95% 75% 42% 13% 2%
30 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 99% 93% 75% 42% 11%
30 CHEN Evan 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 38%
32 YOU Asher 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 21%
33 LEE Leo 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 25%
34 KICIMAN Louis 100% 98% 85% 57% 25% 6% 1%
35 SCHLUBACH Jasper 100% 98% 88% 62% 29% 7% 1%
36 JEONG Joseph 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 22% 3%
37 ZHENG Jasper 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 36% 7%
38 DAI Jason 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 13% 1%
39 CAREY John 100% 100% 98% 89% 60% 22% 2%
40 ZINCHUK Yuri 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 6% 1%
41 PARK Ethan 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 17%
42 KUYKENDALL Logan 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 16% 1%
43 KOVAC Blake 100% 100% 99% 92% 66% 25% 2%
44 TALANDZEVICIUS Tomas 100% 100% 94% 74% 40% 12% 2%
45 LEE Taeryum 100% 99% 86% 50% 14% 1%
46 MBERIA Henry 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5%
47 CHEN Hayden 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 13%
48 LAI Jayden 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 18% 3%
49 YOU Emmanuel 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 8% 1%
50 FEELY Samuel 100% 99% 94% 76% 44% 14% 1%
51 MAURAIS JP 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
52 YOON Jonathan 100% 98% 86% 52% 16% 2%
53 ZHAO Brandon 100% 99% 87% 55% 19% 3%
53 PATEL Yash 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
55 DUCHNOWSKI Thiesson 100% 96% 79% 47% 18% 4% -
56 KIM Siwoo 100% 100% 95% 80% 49% 18% 3%
57 KRAVCHENKO Philip 100% 97% 78% 40% 11% 1% -
58 KIM Ian 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 23% 2%
59 LIU Alrik SiWei 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 3% -
60 TANG Jayce 100% 98% 83% 49% 16% 2% -
60 MAXWELL Taiga 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 12% 1%
60 YU Rex 100% 99% 90% 58% 20% 2%
63 VINCENT-GRAVENHISE Malcolm 100% 100% 95% 74% 37% 9% -
64 SHULL Matthias 100% 90% 55% 20% 4% - -
65 MA Joseph 100% 100% 98% 86% 57% 23% 4%
66 LAI Jaxon 100% 98% 86% 59% 26% 6% 1%
67 ZHOU Silvan 100% 90% 60% 27% 7% 1% -
68 LU Shawn 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 11% 1%
69 FAYEZ Adam 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 16% 1%
70 IVANOV Andrew 100% 100% 95% 74% 37% 8%
71 XU Yunfei(Dorian) 100% 93% 64% 28% 7% 1% -
72 ZHAO ryan 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 18% 2%
73 HONG Evan 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 15% 2%
74 LIU YULIN 100% 99% 94% 77% 46% 17% 3%
75 YAN Milan 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 14% 2%
76 FERNANDEZ Chenxing 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 27% 5%
76 BHATT Shivam 100% 93% 65% 28% 6% - -
78 YU Luca 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 5% 1%
79 SON Isaac 100% 99% 91% 66% 32% 8% 1%
80 CHU Joe 100% 89% 53% 19% 4% - -
81 LUO Sebastian 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 7% 1%
82 KO Caden 100% 98% 84% 52% 19% 3% -
83 LEUNG Joon 100% 100% 95% 75% 38% 8%
84 MORET Declan 100% 47% 11% 1% - -
85 MURPHY-MIMS Connor 100% 86% 47% 14% 2% -
86 LIM Shane 100% 98% 86% 52% 16% 2%
87 PINCIROLI Tommaso 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 11% 1%
89 GAO Guanyi (Jonathan) 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 7% -
90 CHEN Regis 100% 97% 80% 43% 13% 2% -
91 JIN Jacob 100% 100% 93% 70% 35% 10% 1%
92 YUAN Leonardo 100% 88% 54% 19% 4% - -
93 GOOD Adam 100% 88% 54% 18% 3% - -
94 OLELE Chibuikem 100% 97% 84% 54% 23% 5% -
95 CARPENTER Taisei 100% 88% 50% 15% 2% - -
96 CHA Aiden 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 14% 2%
97 ROCHE Theodore 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 5% -
98 CHEN Zachary 100% 88% 55% 22% 5% 1% -
99 VAN RIET Matteo 100% 100% 96% 76% 38% 9% -
99 AGRAWAL Ariv 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 2% -
101 FILKOV Timur 100% 78% 39% 12% 2% - -
102 HWANG Chase 100% 89% 59% 26% 7% 1% -
103 GEIDE Silas 100% 63% 22% 4% - - -
104 NOCON Garrison 100% 94% 71% 37% 11% 2% -
105 ANDREWS Elliott 100% 90% 59% 25% 6% 1% -
106 DANA Miles 100% 97% 76% 38% 10% 1%
107 HOHMAN Elias 100% 76% 32% 7% 1% -
108 THOMSON Piers 100% 99% 88% 61% 28% 7% 1%
109 YANG JULIAN 100% 92% 67% 33% 10% 1% -
110 JIANG Adam 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 15% 2%
111 LEE Derek 100% 93% 56% 17% 2% -
112 MOY Taiyo 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
113 XI Eric 100% 97% 78% 41% 11% 1% -
114 KAZA Avyaan 100% 79% 37% 9% 1% - -
115 RIVKIN Asher 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 9% 1%
116 NG Remy 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 19% 3%
116 DUCHNOWSKI Kempson 100% 78% 37% 10% 1% - -
118 ZHU David 100% 96% 77% 43% 15% 3% -
119 CAVALLARO Xavier 100% 94% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
120 QU ethan 100% 74% 30% 6% 1% -
121 CHEUNG Daniel 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 8% 1%
122 ALI Akash 100% 98% 85% 55% 23% 5% -
122 HWANG Christopher 100% 63% 21% 4% - - -
124 LAW Benjamin 100% 87% 55% 22% 5% 1% -
125 CANONACO Maddox 100% 78% 35% 9% 1% - -
126 ABEZGAUZ Ariel 100% 61% 19% 3% - - -
127 YERRAMSETTY Tejas 100% 74% 34% 9% 1% - -
128 GREEN Hudson 100% 40% 7% 1% - -
129 WILSON Henry 100% 89% 59% 25% 6% 1% -
130 TANG David 100% 99% 88% 58% 24% 6% 1%
131 YANG Sean 100% 94% 71% 36% 11% 2% -
132 SALIBA Jackson 100% 98% 79% 41% 11% 1%
133 PETTYPIECE-FIELDS Graham 100% 60% 19% 3% - - -
134 GAO Kevin 100% 95% 76% 44% 16% 3% -
135 CHONG Nikolai 100% 35% 6% 1% - - -
136 WENDLING Andrew 100% 65% 22% 4% - -
137 SADLER Leon 100% 81% 41% 11% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.