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Champagne Challenge

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, August 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUSISIAN Hadley N.	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
2	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
3	SHELANSKI Isaac	-	-	2%	14%	46%	38%
3	PARK Faith K.	-	-	-	6%	25%	43%	26%
5	CHEN Eric	-	1%	9%	27%	39%	21%	3%
6	HRAPSKY Ryan J.	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
7	CAO Albert	1%	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%
8	HE Lawrence	-	1%	12%	40%	35%	10%	1%
9	RICHARDS Dick	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	6%
10	SIVAKUMAR Ajit	-	1%	12%	33%	38%	15%
11	DEUCHER Joseph H.	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
12	RHYU Kozmo	-	1%	10%	28%	37%	21%	3%
13	CAO Brad	-	1%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
14	SU Caleb	-	1%	8%	30%	45%	17%
15	AYMETT Robert (Skip) S.	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
16	STEVENS Daniel	-	-	1%	10%	34%	41%	13%
17	WALTHER Bryan M.	-	1%	12%	37%	40%	9%
18	HILBERT Gabriel E.	-	2%	18%	37%	30%	11%	2%
19	WOLFE Alex	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
20	HENSAL Nicolas A.	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	4%
21	EVANS Allen L.	-	9%	35%	39%	16%	2%
22	TAMULONIS Fen C.	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
23	CHAWLA Armaan	2%	17%	39%	31%	9%	1%
24	PAINTER Patrick I.	-	1%	7%	27%	41%	21%	3%
25	KING Cameron	1%	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
26	SAFKO Jeffrey A.	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
27	WANG Trontour	36%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
28	ROBITZSKI David R.	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%	-
29	METZLER Calder	14%	48%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
30	ILYAS Zakariya	9%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
31	HUGHES Michael D.	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%
32	JARRELL Keegan	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
33	BOWIE Charlotta	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
34	KIM Ryan	20%	47%	26%	6%	1%	-
35	BANNEN Nicholas	10%	37%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
36	LIU Nicole	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
37	YANG Alisa	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
38	MOORE IV Louis P.	3%	25%	42%	25%	6%	-
38	KWOUN Miles S.	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
40	SWEET Ryleigh E.	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
41	FRENCH Phaelen	11%	40%	36%	12%	1%	-	-
42	UPHAM Karolyn	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
43	WIESSLER-HUGHES Linda	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
44	LIN Harrison	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
45	METZLER Jack	13%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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