2018 Gerrie Baumgart SYC/RCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Friday, October 19, 2018 at 12:30 PM

Denver, CO - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHUGART Henry R.	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
2	BRISLAWN Reilly R.	-	-	4%	16%	35%	35%	9%
3	NIEBERGALL Colin G.	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	HE Jason	-	-	3%	20%	47%	29%
5	PRASAD Ankith	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
6	MOSES Alexander	1%	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
7	LEE Alexander G.	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
8	HUANG Zijin	1%	8%	25%	37%	23%	6%	-
9	AU Marcus J.	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
10	YUMIACO Nolan C.	-	2%	9%	26%	36%	23%	4%
11	SMITH Jackson	-	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	7%
12	CHOI Isaac	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
13	LIU Kyle	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
14	GARRETT Samuel	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
15	SCRIBNER Aidan C.	7%	23%	33%	25%	10%	2%	-
16	KIM Benjamin I.	-	2%	13%	35%	35%	13%	2%
17	HOLDERNESS Landon	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
18	TOWNSEND Avery S.	-	-	1%	9%	26%	40%	24%
19	SHAH S Ayush	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
20	SOLTER Kai	9%	31%	38%	18%	3%	-	-
21	KOPPE Benjamin	1%	17%	41%	33%	8%	-
22	KAJI Ty	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	2%
23	GOLDMAN Rami	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
24	KIM Darius H.	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
25	CHUNG Thomas	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
26	HANRATTY Liam	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
27	ZHANG RUOMU	13%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
28	MUFIC Oliver	49%	41%	10%	1%	-	-
29	ROMERO Caleb E.	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
30	DIECK Logan O.	-	< 1%	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
30	GRAY Joshua	2%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
32	FOWLER Henry	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
33	PAI Nandan K.	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
34	KOH Tommy	45%	39%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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