The Austin Challenge SYC & RCC - Reg Re-Open 1/18

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, April 3, 2021 at 8:30 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YOUNG Peyton E.	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	37%
2	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	10%
3	SENNEWALD Frederick A.	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
3	TIYA BIAYA K.	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	19%
5	NEAL John P.	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
6	THOMAS Harris	-	3%	15%	31%	33%	16%	2%
7	KUDRIAVTCEV Sergei	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
8	MCALISTER Ian	3%	33%	43%	18%	3%	-
9	LIOZNYANSKY Simon	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
10	CHANG Luo Jixiu	-	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
11	DAVOODIAN Christopher	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
12	PHUKAN Rohin	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%	-
13	KOPPE Alexander	2%	19%	40%	29%	9%	1%
14	LEE Seungwon	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
15	PRASAD Ankith	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
16	MUGA Aiden	19%	37%	29%	12%	2%	-	-
17	SENNEWALD James J.	-	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	15%
18	KHANNA Nikhil	-	-	4%	19%	41%	29%	6%
19	XIAO Andrew	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
20	YAO Geoffrey B.	-	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	10%
21	NIKOLOV Peter	-	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
22	XIONG Aaron	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
23	SONG Alexander	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
24	ZHU Eric	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
25	KIM Nathan	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
26	IMREK Elijah S.	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
27	RICHARDS Jackson D.	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	10%	1%
28	GAITHER Christopher W.	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
29	WILHARM Elliott	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%	-
30	MAYER Paul-Magnus V.	-	1%	7%	29%	42%	21%
31	AYALA Nayen L.	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
32	CHIN Dylan A.	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
33	ESKRIDGE Caleb	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
34	ESHONKULOV Aziz	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
35	VAN VACTER Thomas	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%	-	-
36	KRAMER Warren	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
37	YU Austin	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%	-
38	GADDE Neel	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-
39	OBREBSKI Kevin	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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