The Austin Challenge SYC & RCC - Reg Re-Open 1/18

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 8:30 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LO Conrad	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
2	JEON Caleb A.	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	GOOR Julian	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
3	YANG Luao	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
5	SONG Aiden S.	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
6	YU Anders	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
7	TIYA BIAYA K.	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
8	JAIN Aditya	-	-	5%	22%	44%	28%
9	ELKOUSY Laith H.	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	12%	1%
10	LE Jacob W.	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	18%	2%
11	LIN Michael	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
12	TAN Christien	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	5%	-
12	MA Andrew	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
14	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
15	DORAN Wesley C.	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%
16	LI Matthew	-	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%
17	LLIDO Soren	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
18	HOSKERI Anik S.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
19	TSAO Lukas	1%	32%	43%	20%	4%	-
20	PALMA Matthew Dominic	-	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
21	REYES Omar	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	26%	4%
22	KIM Ryan Y.	-	10%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
23	CULLIVAN Justice	1%	10%	34%	37%	16%	2%
24	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
25	ZHANG Jiening G.	-	2%	13%	31%	34%	16%	3%
26	KANG Anthony	-	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%
27	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
28	SANCHEZ Emanuel	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
29	DINSAY Kristjan	22%	46%	26%	6%	1%	-
30	MA Bryant	4%	35%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
31	FUKUDA Diego	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
32	PIERCE Cody	9%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
33	LO Preston	6%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
34	ANDRIC Borna	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
35	SRINIVASAN Vedant	12%	35%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
36	BARRETT Austin	40%	44%	14%	2%	-	-
37	EDISON Ansel	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-
38	MARTINEZ Mathyus	96%	4%	-	-	-	-
39	PARK Ryan	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%	-
40	SCHENK Tristan	17%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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