Arnold Fencing Classic ROC (Div1A, Div 2, Vet), RJCC, and RYC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, March 12, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Ohio Expo Center - Kasich Hall - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 FULLERTON Houston T. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 56%
2 SHAH S Ayush 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 43%
3 GORNOVSKY David J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 56%
3 DAVIES Morgan 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 51%
5 LI Jesse 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 31%
5 CUMMINGS Atticus C. 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 52%
7 KOKENGE Reid 100% 100% 96% 80% 44% 10%
8 NOWAK Jakub P. 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 27%
9 KOZAKIEWICZ Filip 100% 100% 98% 89% 62% 26% 3%
10 MICKO Fritz K. 100% 99% 91% 63% 24% 3%
11 CHAI Jonathan 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 2%
12 ELYADERANI Paxon 100% 98% 83% 46% 13% 1%
13 ARLINGTON Nicholas J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 36%
14 NESTEROV Andrew E. 100% 99% 89% 62% 27% 6% -
15 KENT Dwain 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 11% 1%
16 MADSEN Jr Eric W. 100% 100% 99% 88% 57% 20% 3%
17 CHAWLA Armaan 100% 99% 91% 62% 23% 3%
18 STENCEL Andrew E. 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 12% 1%
19 REED Dusty (Allen) 100% 97% 79% 43% 14% 2% -
20 WU Byron 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 11% 1%
20 MICKELSON Jacob P. 100% 100% 94% 74% 39% 12% 1%
22 RHYU Kozmo 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 37%
23 MIRANDA Matteo 100% 97% 80% 44% 13% 1%
24 LOESER Jacob 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 2% -
25 SONN Rohan 100% 96% 77% 42% 12% 1%
26 OLIVERIUS Joseph W. 100% 100% 97% 83% 48% 12%
27 MILLER Lance W. 100% 92% 64% 27% 6% -
28 ECKEL Anson J. 100% 99% 90% 60% 23% 3%
28 GOHSMAN Maxwell 100% 60% 19% 3% - -
30 PAN Colin 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% -
31 VELINOV Gabriel 100% 99% 93% 70% 34% 8% 1%
32 WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 48%
33 LEE JoonWon 100% 86% 51% 17% 3% -
34 JENSEN Daniel G. 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 34% 7%
35 KNECHT PRANGE Patrick 100% 90% 57% 21% 3% -
36 MAYER Vinzenz 100% 100% 95% 73% 34% 6%
37 HERMANSON David B. 100% 98% 85% 52% 17% 2%
38 BOLARIN Oluwatosin N. 100% 99% 90% 61% 23% 3%
39 LI Chenyu 100% 93% 65% 27% 6% -
40 CHEN Zhong Han 100% 79% 34% 7% 1% - -
41 CIOLINO Jacob F. 100% 99% 92% 67% 29% 4%
42 BARTCH Ethan L. 100% 73% 31% 7% 1% -
43 NIKOLOV Peter 100% 84% 44% 12% 2% -
44 ELLINGTON Keegan A. 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 37% 7%
45 CUMMINGS Kai 100% 99% 93% 69% 33% 8% 1%
46 HONG James 100% 99% 91% 66% 31% 7% 1%
47 MA Bochen 100% 97% 79% 44% 14% 2% -
48 HOORNSTRA David S. 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 3% -
49 WANG Albert 100% 96% 72% 35% 9% 1% -
50 HUNKER Frederick 100% 83% 46% 15% 3% - -
51 ZRELAK Teig 100% 98% 87% 57% 23% 5% -
52 WEI Zheng (Jonny) 100% 72% 29% 6% 1% -
52 EVANS Grant 100% 94% 69% 32% 8% 1%
54 KRZYSIAK David F. 100% 85% 49% 16% 2% -
55 ZENG Zihan 100% 99% 91% 65% 27% 4%
56 EVANS Allen L. 100% 89% 51% 16% 2% -
57 O'BRIEN Timothy S. 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% -
58 DICKSON Tim 100% 81% 42% 12% 2% -
59 PAN Tristan 100% 59% 19% 3% - - -
60 KRAJ Pawel 100% 98% 84% 54% 21% 4% -
61 RODACHY Jeffrey M. 100% 99% 93% 70% 32% 6%
62 PAINE Evan J. 100% 92% 62% 24% 4% -
63 THRASHER Andrew W. 100% 52% 14% 2% - - -
64 FILONENKO Mark N. 100% 83% 44% 11% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.