National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div II Men's Épée

Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 MAO Benjamin 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 18%
2 SNELL John B. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 30%
3 CHEN Brian 100% 100% 98% 91% 68% 34% 8%
3 CHOI Zachary 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 17% 2%
5 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 17%
6 ZONE Liam 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 29%
7 ZHOU Stanley Q. 100% 100% 99% 91% 61% 19%
8 YANG Zeph 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 19% 3%
9 LEE Bryson 100% 96% 80% 49% 20% 4% -
10 SMITH Troy H. 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 15% 2%
11 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 14% 2%
12 WU Colin 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% 1%
13 CHUNG Yeongbin 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 46% 14%
14 BEALS Alden 100% 99% 94% 76% 44% 15% 2%
15 CARNALL Hunter 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% - -
16 CHEN Bowen 100% 95% 70% 32% 8% 1% -
17 JU Hanul 100% 98% 84% 52% 20% 4% -
18 HAN Lawrence 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 14%
19 GLENNON Sebastian J. 100% 100% 96% 81% 51% 19% 3%
20 LAURIMAA Emil 100% 97% 82% 53% 22% 5% 1%
21 SINHA Zaan 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 25% 5%
22 WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M. 100% 99% 91% 69% 37% 12% 2%
23 TOMASZEWSKI Joshua 100% 99% 94% 72% 35% 9% 1%
24 YAKIMENKO Andrei 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 25%
25 LIU Yikun 100% 98% 85% 53% 19% 3%
26 HENTOSH Pierce 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 47%
27 GRAY Connor W. 100% 100% 99% 95% 74% 36% 6%
28 LAI Boden 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 33% 7%
29 PRIHODKO Andrew 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 41% 8%
30 GOING Nicholas (Nick) S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 30%
31 SNYDER Ari 100% 98% 86% 59% 27% 7% 1%
32 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
33 DORASZELSKI Mark 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 30% 5%
33 KENT V David 100% 100% 96% 80% 51% 20% 3%
33 FU Jason 100% 99% 91% 69% 37% 12% 2%
36 UPSHAW Micah 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
37 ZHANG ethan 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 33% 7%
38 SVERDLOV Seth 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 14%
39 EVERETT Taiger 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 10%
40 EMMERT JP 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% 1%
41 HU Robert J. 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 19% 3%
42 DAO Alexander 100% 99% 93% 74% 41% 14% 2%
43 MEGGERS Davin 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 22% 4%
44 CHAN Matthew 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 39%
45 CONKLIN Jim 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 24%
46 SIMPSON Patrick 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
47 GULLO Kenji Y. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 38%
48 COETZEE Frans M. 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 12%
49 BLACK Zachary 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
50 WANG Tristan 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 61% 21%
51 KRAVETZ Benjamin (Ben) D. 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 18%
52 WONG Ethan 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
52 CHUNG Joshua 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 28% 5%
54 NALBANDIAN VAHAN P. 100% 97% 84% 54% 23% 6% 1%
55 OSTIGUY Cameron 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 25% 5%
56 FU Ethan 100% 99% 94% 73% 40% 13% 2%
57 SONG Troy 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% 1%
58 CHEN Bailey 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 9% 1%
59 BENFORD Kailan 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 22%
60 ASGARALLY Anthony 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
61 CHEN Steve 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
62 REPIC Oliver 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 6% 1%
63 CROSSMAN Brandon 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 1%
64 BAXTER David 100% 98% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
65 JOHNSON Ryder 100% 98% 85% 54% 22% 5% < 1%
66 PETERSON Matthew 100% 100% 95% 79% 48% 18% 3%
67 PARCELEWICZ John M. 100% 99% 92% 66% 29% 5%
68 MARRAN Erik R. 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
69 PACK Tanner D. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 35%
70 SIYANKO Joshua 100% 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1%
71 LIU Jeremiah W. 100% 86% 52% 20% 5% 1% -
72 REDDY Arya 100% 99% 90% 64% 30% 8% 1%
73 BUI Henry 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 15% 2%
74 SHULKIN Mark 100% 94% 72% 38% 13% 2% -
75 PATEL Kushal 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 9% 1%
75 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 100% 100% 96% 78% 45% 14% 2%
77 PEÑA Ethan 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 22% 4%
78 LIU Yueri 100% 91% 61% 24% 5% -
79 ZEBROSE Cordell B. 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 20%
80 MAYCHROWITZ Matt 100% 100% 98% 87% 56% 17%
81 DADE MAXIMUS 100% 88% 52% 18% 3% -
82 VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 19% 3%
83 ROMANOV Ethan 100% 99% 90% 67% 36% 11% 2%
84 DAVIS Jonah 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 6%
85 KIM Andrew J. 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 8%
86 SHIRLEY Kai 100% 93% 68% 34% 11% 2% -
87 STEPHENS Corbin 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 9%
88 KIM Teo 100% 91% 62% 28% 8% 1% -
89 VENET Téva 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
90 CHAO Warren 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
91 MEN Junda 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
92 PAHLAVI Kamran 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 33% 8%
93 ROBINS Brennan 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 46% 12%
94 BLAKESLEE Garrett H. 100% 95% 75% 43% 16% 3% -
95 XIE Brandon 100% 97% 80% 50% 20% 5% -
96 SMOTROFF Joshua L. 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 13%
97 JONES Dominic R. 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 29% 6%
98 RITTERSHAUS Bryce 100% 76% 35% 9% 1% -
99 JIANG ryan 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 4%
100 PARK Augustine 100% 100% 94% 71% 34% 7%
101 MIAO KUNQI 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
102 BAILEY David 100% 99% 92% 65% 26% 4%
103 PENG Gregory 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 4%
104 LI Yunji (Rain) 100% 88% 54% 19% 3% -
105 SHAFRITZ Noah 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% 1%
106 GUAN Nathan 100% 99% 95% 78% 48% 19% 3%
107 JACKSON Thomas 100% 95% 72% 38% 12% 2% -
108 CHRISTIAN John R. 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 20% 3%
108 LEE Aiden 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 6% -
110 CHANG Henry 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8%
111 ZHENG Jerry 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 21% 4%
112 TORRES Gianni 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
113 GOESLING Jonathan 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 8% 1%
114 KENT IV David 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 8% 1%
114 ZHANG Roland 100% 93% 68% 35% 11% 2% -
116 SINGH Ravin 100% 92% 63% 25% 5% -
117 ZELIN Sam J. 100% 98% 86% 56% 21% 3%
118 HULL Liam 100% 94% 70% 33% 8% 1%
119 CROUCH William John (John) 100% 100% 94% 73% 36% 8%
120 SLOUGH Sean 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 35% 8%
121 NOFZIGER Bennett 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
122 DANIELS Jonah 100% 91% 64% 30% 9% 1% -
123 RACHEL Dylan 100% 100% 97% 87% 61% 28% 6%
123 ALLEY Everett T 100% 99% 89% 62% 29% 7% 1%
125 FAN Yuchen 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% - -
126 UVAROV Andrii 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 9%
126 WILLIAMS Timothy 100% 99% 94% 76% 46% 17% 3%
128 CHOI San 100% 99% 94% 73% 38% 11% 1%
129 WU Eric 100% 97% 79% 44% 13% 2%
130 SANTOS Felipe 100% 97% 81% 47% 15% 2%
131 GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey 100% 57% 16% 2% - -
132 HENSLEY Roran 100% 99% 90% 62% 26% 4%
133 CHU Brandon A. 100% 99% 89% 64% 32% 9% 1%
134 DELISLE Jonas P. 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
134 MENDOZA Zandro 100% 99% 94% 77% 46% 17% 3%
136 PAULSEN Zachary 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 22% 4%
137 AGARWAL Adheesh 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
138 NALLAMSHETTY Ayan 100% 100% 96% 77% 43% 14% 2%
139 ALI Farhan 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
140 JENNINGS Adin 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 17% 3%
141 HANNON Owen 100% 99% 90% 66% 35% 11% 2%
141 TUSANTOSO McKenzie 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 2% -
143 ELTERMAN Lev 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 21% 4%
144 MOHAMED Sabir 100% 59% 18% 3% - - -
145 SHILOV Maxim 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% - -
146 PATCHETT Bennett 100% 95% 73% 39% 12% 2% -
147 DURHAM Porter 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 9% 1%
148 VILLAREAL Quentin 100% 98% 85% 54% 19% 3%
149 KIM Joshua 100% 67% 25% 5% 1% -
150 COCHRAN Michael 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 16%
150 CHU Allan 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 16%
152 CHUNG Andrew 100% 98% 81% 45% 14% 2%
153 JAIN Samyak 100% 86% 51% 18% 3% -
154 PATEL Shloke 100% 90% 55% 19% 3% -
155 CARR Cage 100% 91% 62% 27% 6% 1% -
156 SEBASTIAN Alexander P. 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 19% 3%
157 CHOU Benson 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
158 JAMES Lonnie M. 100% 100% 99% 91% 70% 37% 9%
159 MALLON Jaxson 100% 91% 63% 29% 8% 1% -
159 COHEN Nathan 100% 78% 39% 12% 2% - -
161 JACKSON Nicholas 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% - -
162 RUSSELL James 100% 95% 68% 31% 8% 1% -
163 IFORD Andrew W. 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
163 KUBATIN Anton V. 100% 99% 93% 71% 37% 11% 1%
165 NAZARIAN Jonah 100% 98% 87% 61% 29% 8% 1%
165 JOHNSON Jay 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 21% 4%
167 WONG King-Yee 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
168 O'HARROW Tristan C. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 12%
169 FUSSMAN Yuval 100% 96% 78% 46% 17% 3% -
170 KRUGER Mark 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 15% 2%
171 ZOGRAFOS Nicholas 100% 70% 29% 7% 1% - -
172 COLLINS Vernon 100% 90% 60% 25% 6% 1% -
173 SMITH Charles 100% 99% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
174 CAFASSO martin 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 13%
175 POHL Philip 100% 40% 8% 1% - -
176 RIVERA Louis 100% 77% 37% 10% 1% -
177 AJAYI Phil 100% 99% 91% 64% 26% 4%
178 CHEN Leonardo 100% 93% 64% 25% 5% -
179 MALAHOWSKI Patrick 100% 64% 21% 3% - -
180 MARSHALL William L. 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 4%
181 DAN Rex 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
182 MCADOO Declan 100% 100% 98% 90% 65% 30% 6%
183 PARKS Isaac 100% 95% 74% 42% 15% 3% -
184 BUCCELLATO Joel S. 100% 99% 89% 65% 33% 10% 1%
184 FULLERTON Joshua D. 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 29% 6%
186 JANYSKA Allen 100% 99% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
187 PAINTER Noah 100% 79% 40% 12% 2% - -
188 CHESNEY Aiden R. 100% 99% 92% 70% 38% 12% 2%
189 SAKO Ayrton J. 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 6%
190 SO Lorenzo 100% 99% 89% 61% 25% 5% -
191 BRUNDAGE Nevan 100% 83% 48% 18% 4% - -
192 MCMAHAN Christopher D. 100% 91% 53% 18% 3% - -
193 REAGAN Henry 100% 95% 75% 41% 14% 3% -
194 FESTIN Michael G. 100% 90% 61% 27% 7% 1% -
195 PALAMARCHUK Matthew 100% 97% 80% 48% 19% 4% -
196 GOROZA Eric 100% 80% 41% 12% 2% - -
196 TIEMANN Landen 100% 98% 83% 51% 18% 3% -
198 ILYAS Zakariya 100% 99% 90% 67% 34% 10% 1%
198 LOMIO Nicholas A. 100% 78% 39% 12% 2% - -
200 WEGENER Soren 100% 97% 81% 46% 15% 2% -
201 PABLO Jesse 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 15% 2%
201 HERRON Jonathan 100% 50% 12% 2% - - -
203 KELBLEY Jay 100% 74% 33% 9% 1% - -
204 HOFFMANN Matthew 100% 98% 84% 54% 22% 5% -
205 SOLONOVICH Maksim 100% 98% 81% 43% 13% 2% -
206 SHEN Jiayi 100% 72% 29% 6% 1% - -
207 ZIMINSKY Karel M. 100% 94% 67% 30% 7% 1%
208 O'BRIEN Eoin J. 100% 100% 96% 80% 45% 11%
209 MISHRA Milan B. 100% 90% 61% 28% 8% 1% -
210 KORTZ Austin 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 6%
211 MARKOWITZ William M. 100% 96% 77% 45% 17% 4% -
212 MASK Austin 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
213 CHOI David 100% 74% 33% 9% 1% - -
214 MARSH Alex 100% 90% 60% 27% 7% 1% -
215 RAPALSKI Thomas 100% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
215 CHANDLER Cory 100% 56% 16% 3% - - -
217 GATHRIGHT Anthony 100% 75% 34% 9% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.