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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GOHEL Dayus T.	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
2	LAI Aedin	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
3	KOKENGE Reid	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
3	WU Jonathan	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	40%
5	DORASZELSKI Mark	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
6	ZHANG Caden	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	29%
7	THAKUR Om S.	-	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
8	PARK Frederick	-	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
9	LAI Boden	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	20%	3%
10	KRISHNAN Skanda	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
11	PARK Nicholas	-	3%	15%	34%	36%	13%
12	JORDAN Anton	-	-	2%	10%	32%	41%	15%
13	CAO Albert	-	-	1%	11%	34%	42%	11%
14	MANN JAKEROD	-	-	1%	7%	27%	45%	21%
15	ZHANG Roland	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-
16	CHEN Leonardo	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
17	SVERDLOV Seth	-	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
18	KOYFMAN Benjamin	-	-	5%	23%	38%	27%	6%
19	HU Robert J.	-	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%
19	BADEA Christian	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
21	LI Benjamin	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	13%
22	HEADRICK Lance	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
23	CHEN Jun Ho	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	21%	3%
24	WONG King-Yee	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%	-
25	VODOVOZOV Denis	-	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
26	FUSSMAN Yuval	2%	17%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
27	SHA Michael	-	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%
28	FISHMAN Rahm	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	2%
29	LONGSTREET Jeffrey	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
30	ANAFI Ari	27%	46%	22%	4%	-	-	-
31	HERTZOG Ben	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-	-
32	KRALICEK Emmet	3%	23%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
33	ZOU Xianyang (Max)	-	1%	8%	30%	38%	20%	3%
34	OKUN Benjamin	1%	17%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
35	TATE William Isom	2%	14%	38%	33%	11%	2%	-
36	GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey	5%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-	-
37	LAPP Oliver	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
38	SUBRAMANIAM Sahil	28%	47%	21%	3%	-	-	-
39	ALAM Rajan	9%	41%	36%	12%	2%	-	-
39	VANSTONE Trucker	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-	-
41	ZHONG Lee	20%	45%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
42	ZHOU Andrew	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
43	PATHAK Arush	42%	44%	13%	1%	-	-	-
44	KARIMOV Amir	21%	49%	24%	5%	-	-	-
45	YAO Andrew	5%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
46	SOSNICK Samuel	32%	46%	19%	3%	-	-	-
47	KAPLAN Maddox	70%	27%	2%	-	-	-	-
48	ZAKHAROV Konstantyn	12%	48%	31%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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