The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Friday, December 20, 2019 at 8:30 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PRASAD Ankith	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
2	GYURE Brayden H.	-	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
3	IMREK Samuel A.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
3	KANG Philip F.	-	1%	9%	31%	40%	19%
5	YOUNG Peyton E.	-	-	5%	26%	48%	20%
6	LEE Seungwon	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%	1%
7	FRAY Alexander	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
8	LIN Kyran	-	-	3%	21%	45%	30%
9	LEONE III Charles D.	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
10	PHAM Sawyer T.	-	8%	34%	42%	15%	2%
11	SENNEWALD Frederick A.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
12	KUDRIAVTCEV Sergei	-	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	18%
13	KIM Donghyeok	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
14	NEAL John P.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
15	NOEL Sebastien A.	-	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%
16	LEE JUNYOUNG	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%	-
17	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	-	2%	12%	35%	42%	10%
18	WIMMER Nathaniel P.	-	-	2%	16%	46%	35%
19	IMREK Elijah S.	1%	10%	34%	41%	13%	1%
20	PANAYOTOV Alexander	-	5%	21%	37%	27%	8%	1%
21	LARAWAY Hunter	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
22	RICHARDS Jackson D.	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
23	LIOZNYANSKY Simon	-	-	3%	21%	48%	28%
24	SHIV Rishi	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
25	KHANNA Nikhil	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
26	MCALISTER Ian	8%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-
27	SONG Alexander	1%	14%	42%	34%	9%	1%
28	THOMAS Harris	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%	1%
29	WOLFE Alex	6%	29%	39%	20%	5%	-	-
30	LONGSHORE IZEYAH T.	2%	17%	39%	32%	10%	1%
31	HERSCOVICI Aaron	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
32	GISLER Leo	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
33	LIN Andrew	1%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
34	CHANG Luo Jixiu	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
35	DIVERIS Joseph	31%	46%	20%	4%	-	-
36	HERNANDEZ Cole F.	12%	46%	33%	8%	1%	-
37	SEBASTIAN Alexander P.	2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1%	-
38	LAZARRE Alex	4%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%	-
39	ZHANG Zixian (Shawn)	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
40	SADH Ariv N.	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
41	BLANCO Renn	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
42	MUGA Aiden	30%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
43	LAI Aiden	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
44	AGARWAL Adheesh	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
45	CABOUR Keelan	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
46	HERNANDEZ Cace	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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