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Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 3:30 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Noah	-	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	BEZRODNOV Alexander	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
3	NESTERCZUK Maddox W.	10%	35%	37%	16%	2%	-
3	BEZRODNOV Michael	-	-	3%	21%	45%	31%
5	KIM Byung	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%
6	LIEF Isaac R.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
7	KUMAR Aidan	-	2%	15%	39%	37%	6%
8	BASOK Nikita	-	2%	14%	39%	35%	10%
9	PARK Frederick	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	12%
10	KOKENGE Reid	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
11	ROYTBURD Samuel	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
12	MISHIMA Torata	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
13	KNOX James	-	-	4%	19%	41%	35%
14	WU Jonathan	13%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-
15	GONG Haixiang	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
16	BORODITSKY Ethan	-	1%	10%	36%	40%	14%
17	PARK Nicholas	-	-	2%	14%	43%	37%	5%
18	OTTO Nathaniel B.	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
19	ZHAO corey	1%	13%	41%	34%	10%	1%
20	CHEN Jun Ho	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
21	GAO Daniel	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
22	NOVOJILOV Alexei	-	1%	10%	35%	39%	15%	1%
23	FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T.	-	1%	9%	31%	44%	16%
24	VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
25	GWINN William	28%	48%	21%	3%	-	-	-
26	ALKEMA Benjamin	6%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
27	WIECHMANN Colin	27%	49%	20%	3%	-	-
28	CHANG Benjamin	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
29	BHATIA Arav	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
30	FUSSMAN Yuval	2%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
31	BHATIA Rahil	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
32	KHALITOV Alexander	1%	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
33	MING Isaac	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
34	KUBATIN Anton V.	46%	46%	8%	-	-	-
35	WALCH Logan	1%	13%	35%	36%	14%	2%
36	JIN Derek	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
37	SHUKLA Raghav	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
38	CHERPELIS George	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	1%	-
39	KALKANIS George	1%	7%	31%	42%	17%	2%	-
40	FENG du	24%	45%	26%	5%	-	-	-
41	IVKOV Alexander	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%
42	SOSNICK Samuel	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
43	CAPEILLERES Theo	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
44	WANG Max S	61%	32%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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