Mission RJCC #2 | Foil & Women's Sabre ONLY - Opens 9/16

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 9:00 AM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	EMMER Chase T.	-	-	-	-	-	6%	94%
2	OURSLER Jack	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	BAS Liam	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
3	LI Richard	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
5	JOSEPH Dominic (Dom)	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
6	FOGELSON Frederick J.	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
7	MCCLAIN Bryce C.	-	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
8	SHIKHMAN Robert	1%	12%	30%	35%	19%	4%
9	YEROKHIN Michael N.	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
10	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
11	BELLUOMO David C.	1%	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-
12	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
13	LAURICELLA Douglas	-	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
14	BRUK Peter J.	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
15	SCHENCK Koen M.	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
16	LE Vyn A.	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
17	BALL James T.	-	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	7%
18	AHN Jun	-	-	3%	18%	41%	36%	1%
19	DAI Jonathan T.	-	6%	21%	36%	29%	9%
20	ACHILOV Sayid	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	7%	-
21	MAGIDSON Gabriel	-	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	7%
22	CHENG Jonathan	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
23	WERWA Griffith	2%	17%	38%	31%	10%	1%	-
24	DALBERG Leif	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
25	MONTALBINE Aidan	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
26	BOOTSMA Shane-Anson	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-
27	ZHAO Jesse	12%	36%	36%	13%	2%	-
28	BROWN Alexander R.	21%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
29	JUDD Mehta J.	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%	-
30	DESOLA Aidan J.	2%	16%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
31	KWON Ethan	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	15%
32	NAGER Noah	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
33	WANG Alex L.	8%	49%	34%	9%	1%	-	-
34	REZA Farazi	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
35	KITAGAWA Eric S.	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
36	BURNS Andrew	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
37	AMODEMO Charles	7%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
38	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	18%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
39	DYCKMAN Andrew P.	40%	44%	14%	2%	-	-	-
40	MACHADO Tate	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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