Fairfax Challenge Spring RJCC/RYC Reg Opens 12/1

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	SU Caleb	-	1%	11%	42%	46%
2	KIM Dylan J.	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
3	LEONE III Charles D.	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
3	MURPHY Thomas P.	-	6%	31%	48%	14%
5	CHOI Marcus	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%
6	CAO Albert	1%	20%	42%	30%	7%
7	POIST Wylie	-	4%	20%	44%	33%
8	WOLFE Alex	4%	32%	43%	19%	3%
9	SCHULZE Ethan	20%	45%	28%	7%	1%
10	WANG Clayton	14%	37%	35%	13%	2%
11	NORTH Alexander M.	-	9%	33%	41%	17%
11	LEE Samuel Y.	-	8%	32%	42%	17%
13	CAO Brad	1%	11%	38%	41%	10%
14	WOZNIAK Fryderyk	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
15	SINFUEGO Adrian	9%	34%	41%	14%	2%
16	BERNARD Jack B.	15%	39%	33%	12%	1%
17	SINGH Ravin	10%	36%	38%	14%	1%
18	VACCARO Dominick J.	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
19	ZHANG Richard	1%	14%	42%	36%	7%
20	STEVENS Alexei	3%	17%	39%	33%	9%
21	WANG Trontour	7%	40%	42%	11%	1%
22	LIN Harrison	10%	36%	40%	14%	1%
22	ZHANG Caden	13%	37%	36%	13%	1%
22	SINGH Aryaman	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
22	JONES Tyler	14%	51%	31%	5%	-
26	KWOUN Miles S.	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%
27	SAUNIER Cameron	1%	8%	30%	43%	19%
28	DUAN eric	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
29	LEE JoonWon	41%	42%	15%	2%	-
29	PAL Ian K.	2%	21%	44%	28%	5%
31	ZHANG Andy	33%	46%	18%	3%	-
32	COLEMAN Jeremy	6%	32%	41%	18%	2%
33	PAN Edwin	72%	25%	3%	-	-
34	ALI Farhan	46%	45%	9%	1%	-
35	HIGGIN Matthew	22%	45%	27%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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