DCFC Champagne Challenge #5

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:00 AM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HRAPSKY Ryan J.	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
2	SHELANSKI Isaac	-	-	-	1%	10%	43%	46%
3	NORTH Gary S.	-	-	-	-	5%	35%	59%
3	RHYU Kozmo	-	-	-	5%	27%	51%	17%
5	PARK Ian C.	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
6	SIVAKUMAR Ajit	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
7	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	-	2%	11%	30%	40%	18%
8	DAVIDZON Ekaterina	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
9	WRIGHT Ezra B.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	26%
10	DEUCHER Joseph H.	-	-	-	6%	28%	45%	21%
11	WOZNIAK Ignacy	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
12	O'HARA Keegan J.	-	-	2%	14%	41%	34%	8%
13	DUAN Eric	-	10%	37%	39%	12%	1%	-
14	TAMULONIS Fen C.	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
15	AYMETT Robert (Skip) S.	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%	-
16	WOZNIAK Fryderyk	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%	-
17	HARDY Tristan L.	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	10%
18	CAO Brad	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
19	USDIN Anton	-	1%	10%	34%	42%	12%	1%
20	ZHANG Caden	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	2%	-
21	ASHER Valerie	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
22	HENSAL Nicolas A.	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
23	KWOUN Miles S.	3%	19%	38%	31%	8%	1%	-
24	SNIDER Jeffrey H.	-	-	1%	9%	34%	47%	10%
25	WANG Tristan	-	8%	34%	39%	16%	3%	-
26	CAO Albert	-	6%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-
27	PALAMARCHUK Matthew	1%	28%	47%	22%	3%	-	-
28	CHAMBLISS Logan C.	-	11%	39%	37%	11%	1%	-
29	ILYAS Zakariya	11%	35%	37%	14%	2%	-
30	ROTHKA Spencer J.	-	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
31	BANNEN Nicholas	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
32	SIEDOW Jeffrey	15%	37%	34%	12%	2%	-
33	BLACK Ethan	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
34	BRUNDAGE Nevan	24%	50%	22%	4%	-	-	-
35	ANDREWS Iain	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	18%	2%
36	MACE Eliza M.	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	1%	-
37	ARMSTRONG Gary	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
38	FRENCH Phaelen	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	PALAMARCHUK Andriy	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
40	DOHERTY Eva	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
41	KOMISAR-BURY Ryley	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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