The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Thrust Winter RYC RJCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 12:30 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SOOMRO Adam A.	-	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
2	DIXON Thomas	2%	15%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
3	LANGTON Sawyer	-	-	4%	25%	45%	26%
3	RICHARD Owen	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
5	LONCAR Luka E.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	24%
6	SHAH Maximilian A.	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
7	BORODITSKY Ethan	-	-	3%	17%	42%	39%
8	WU Joseph	1%	7%	28%	41%	20%	3%
9	LIU Jack	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
10	GOHEL Dayus T.	-	-	5%	36%	44%	15%
11	POZOVSKIY Mitchell R.	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	10%
12	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
13	HURDAL Leif G.	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	4%
14	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris E.	-	1%	13%	45%	37%	5%
15	LEE Noah	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
16	BORATGIS Christopher J.	-	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
17	KOKENGE Reid	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
18	BEYRICH Henry J.	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
18	MISHIMA Torata	1%	12%	32%	37%	17%	1%
20	CHESNEY Aiden R.	-	4%	17%	36%	32%	10%	1%
21	BENATER Ethan	-	-	4%	20%	42%	34%
22	WU Marcus	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
23	LIN Chenzhe	27%	50%	20%	3%	-	-
24	PARK Frederick	-	3%	19%	42%	32%	4%
25	JIN Owen	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	1%
26	LIEF Isaac R.	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	13%
27	KOBI Samuel	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	22%
28	DE CLERMONT Geo	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%
29	JANKOWICH Alexander E.	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
30	SCHADE Lucas	20%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
31	KARAMANIAN Nicholas	17%	43%	32%	7%	1%	-
32	CHOW Maxwell	27%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
33	PAHLAVI Kamran	20%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
34	LEE Hudson	3%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
35	STEWART Charlie	15%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
36	NESTERCZUK Maddox W.	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-
37	ROYTBURD Samuel	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
38	KHALITOV Alexander	8%	46%	37%	9%	1%	-
39	WIECHMANN Colin	2%	16%	42%	32%	8%	-
40	WU Jonathan	21%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
41	GILLIS George	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
42	WANG Max S	48%	44%	7%	-	-	-
43	GONG Haixiang	36%	46%	16%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.