The Fencing Center SYC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, October 4, 2019 at 3:00 PM

San Jose, CA - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Kyran	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
2	DRIBIN Ezra	1%	9%	30%	40%	20%
3	WIMMER Nathaniel P.	-	-	-	4%	37%	59%
3	WANG DEVON	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
5	RICHARDS Jackson D.	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
6	SCOFIELD Thien J.	-	1%	5%	23%	45%	26%
7	LEE Seungwon	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
8	MULCAHY Olaf	-	-	3%	21%	54%	22%
9	CASTELLY Luke	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%
10	YAO Geoffrey B.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
11	CASASSOVICI Georges	-	3%	18%	37%	33%	9%
12	REIERSON Risor	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
13	BAZHENOV Anthony	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
14	CHIN Dylan A.	2%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
15	KNUDSEN Travis	1%	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
16	DAO Alexander	-	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
17	KIM Nathan	-	-	4%	21%	45%	29%
18	WANG owen	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%
19	YU Austin	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-
20	CHEN Tyler	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
21	ZWICKER Jacob	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	-
22	LEVENTAL Mark	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
23	TONG Samuel	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
24	KIM Jayden	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
24	CHEN Zhengyang	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
26	BHATT Arjun	4%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
27	GAO Zachary	15%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
28	DOWDELL Riley	5%	24%	38%	25%	6%	1%
29	CHEN Bailey	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
30	COPEN Elliot P.	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%
31	BUERGISSER Kai	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-	-
32	WU Eric	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
33	VINODH Matsya	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
34	ANDERSON Kai	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%	-
35	DAVOODIAN Christopher	4%	23%	41%	27%	4%	-
36	WANG William	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
37	CHOI Zachary	15%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-
38	LI Ethan R.	28%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
39	BUERGISSER Tae	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
39	WANG Robert	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
41	NOFZIGER Bennett	43%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
42	ZHAO Colin	9%	47%	33%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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