American Challenge ROC (DIV1A, DIV2, VET) & RJC

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 3:30 PM

Madison, NJ - Madison, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DE LA CRUZ Jean Carlos - - 1% 7% 25% 41% 25%
2 TONG Chihao 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4%
3 ROMANIAS William (Willy) E. - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
3 SPANO Gideon S. - 1% 4% 16% 33% 33% 13%
5 KIM Nicholas W. - - 4% 19% 41% 35%
6 JIN Owen - 4% 17% 32% 31% 14% 3%
7 FERREIRA Noah J. - 2% 9% 25% 34% 24% 6%
8 WU Jason - 5% 19% 32% 29% 13% 2%
9 DYER Ian E. 1% 8% 24% 33% 24% 9% 1%
10 WIEDERHORN Ethan 1% 7% 25% 37% 25% 6%
11 BREKHMAN Maxim - 1% 7% 23% 37% 26% 7%
12 DOTSON Gus - 1% 8% 24% 35% 25% 7%
13 PERSAUD Daivik 1% 7% 25% 38% 25% 5%
14 ATANASIO Joseph 2% 16% 34% 31% 14% 3% -
15 RODELL Hunter C. 1% 6% 21% 33% 27% 11% 2%
16 HILLSTROM Nathan 4% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
17 PAHLAVI Kamran 1% 11% 32% 37% 17% 3%
18 GUMAGAY Paul - 3% 12% 28% 33% 20% 5%
19 LONCAR Luka E. 1% 7% 23% 36% 27% 7%
20 MANOUKIAN David 3% 17% 33% 30% 14% 2%
21 SAM Kory - 3% 15% 35% 35% 12%
22 LI Jeffrey 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 2%
23 JIN Alexander - 1% 4% 17% 33% 33% 13%
24 GOHEL Dayus T. - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
25 TUCKER Owen J. - 2% 12% 28% 33% 20% 5%
26 NOP Will H. - 3% 15% 32% 35% 15%
27 TASSART Alan 3% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2%
28 GERSEN Jacob 1% 10% 32% 37% 17% 3%
29 ALFAIATE Lucas - 3% 16% 32% 31% 14% 2%
30 LI Brian 2% 11% 29% 35% 20% 4%
31 GUI Runlin - 3% 14% 34% 36% 13%
32 CHAI Jonathan - 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 5%
33 LANGTON Sawyer - 1% 11% 34% 42% 11%
34 BUSH Thomas - 1% 6% 24% 44% 26%
35 WU Joseph 1% 9% 27% 37% 21% 4%
36 SIMPSON Patrick 9% 32% 38% 18% 3% -
37 MAGDA Daniel 1% 10% 28% 34% 20% 6% 1%
38 SKIFFINGTON Sam 6% 27% 40% 22% 5% -
39 MAAS Sean H. - 5% 21% 39% 28% 6%
40 MCCOMISKEY Aiden J. 2% 13% 30% 34% 18% 4%
41 CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris E. - 2% 14% 35% 36% 12%
42 PEDERSEN Christopher C. - 2% 14% 32% 34% 15% 2%
43 HEKMAT Sina R. - 2% 10% 29% 40% 20%
44 FENWICK Luke A. - 1% 5% 23% 43% 28%
45 JANKOWICH Alexander E. 8% 29% 37% 20% 5% -
46 STEFANOV Michael A. 5% 22% 36% 27% 9% 1%
47 O'BRIEN Timothy S. 16% 37% 31% 13% 2% -
48 MACKINNON Russell H. 12% 34% 35% 16% 3% -
49 JENNINGS Adin 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
50 HONG James 2% 14% 31% 32% 17% 4% -
51 PEREZ Francisco 6% 24% 36% 25% 9% 1%
52 LESSER Jeremy 9% 30% 36% 19% 5% -
53 SUN Jason 15% 36% 33% 14% 3% -
54 WISNIEWSKI Bart 1% 12% 32% 36% 16% 2%
55 STALL-RYAN Jonathan 22% 41% 28% 8% 1% -
56 DOUGLAS Colin F. 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4%
57 TATE Leon J. 16% 36% 31% 14% 3% -
57 KATOPES Peter 32% 44% 20% 4% - -
59 FAN Russell 17% 41% 30% 10% 1% -
60 BINDAS Odinn A. 7% 26% 37% 23% 7% 1%
61 LIBERT Brian 9% 30% 36% 20% 5% - -
62 CHEN Austin 1% 10% 29% 35% 19% 5% -
63 WHITELOCK James R. 44% 39% 14% 3% - - -
64 SUN Jeffery 47% 39% 12% 2% - - -
65 KAPLAN Alejandro 11% 34% 35% 16% 3% -
66 MISHIMA Torata 1% 11% 28% 33% 19% 6% 1%
67 PARK Frederick 2% 16% 36% 31% 12% 2% -
68 CONNORS Jacob 49% 38% 12% 2% - - -
69 FUSSMAN Yuval 31% 44% 21% 4% - -
69 SHAO Haian 10% 32% 35% 18% 4% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.