Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8

Div I-A Men's Épée

Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 NORTH Alexander M. 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 74% 33%
2 CLICK Aiden 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 48%
3 HRAPSKY Ryan J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 47%
3 ZHANG Caden 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 32% 5%
5 JORDAN Anton 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 42% 11%
6 DISIMONE David Z. 100% 98% 85% 52% 17% 1%
7 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 69%
8 BERNARD Jack B. 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 16% 2%
9 HEADRICK Lance 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 21%
10 HITCHCOCK David 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 26%
11 TABLEMAN Doug S. 100% 100% 99% 93% 59% 16%
12 ABBOUD Michael 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 19% 3%
13 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 100% 95% 74% 35% 7%
14 CHENH Justin 100% 70% 23% 3% - -
15 TIKHONOV Daniel 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% -
16 TAMULONIS Fen C. 100% 99% 89% 59% 21% 2%
17 SNYDER IV William B. 100% 100% 100% 97% 72% 25%
18 CHUNG Joshua 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 18% 2%
19 CAO Albert 100% 100% 98% 89% 59% 18%
20 KYPRAIOS Nicholas 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 20% 2%
21 TOMASZEWSKI Joshua 100% 99% 86% 55% 22% 5% -
22 AL-TAYEB Ahmed M. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 12%
23 WANG Clayton 100% 100% 97% 81% 45% 11%
24 MODANLOU Navid 100% 84% 46% 14% 2% -
25 AGARWAL Adheesh 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 15% 2%
26 MEGGERS Davin 100% 99% 88% 59% 25% 6% -
27 SINGH Ravin 100% 99% 92% 67% 30% 7% -
28 ALI Farhan 100% 94% 69% 31% 7% 1%
29 NORMILE Nicholas 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% -
30 MORET Eric N. 100% 99% 87% 54% 19% 3%
31 TIKHONOV Iliya 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 21% 3%
32 CAO Brad 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
33 SO Lorenzo 100% 99% 86% 53% 18% 3% -
34 TATE William Isom 100% 93% 61% 23% 5% - -
35 PAN Colin 100% 100% 95% 76% 42% 12% 1%
36 LIN Zizhen 100% 78% 34% 8% 1% -
37 LEE Aiden 100% 87% 52% 17% 3% -
38 LEE DoWon 100% 76% 28% 3% - -
39 NORWOOD Malik 100% 100% 94% 71% 37% 11% 1%
40 SURIKOV Igor 100% 92% 64% 29% 7% 1% -
41 BYUN Andrew 100% 98% 83% 49% 17% 3% -
42 RICHARDS Dick 100% 100% 100% 96% 67% 21%
43 DAVIS Jonah 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% -
44 AMOLSCH Dylan 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
45 JARRELL Keegan 100% 38% 7% 1% - - -
46 ZHANG Sen 100% 96% 66% 28% 7% 1% -
46 SZIEDE Kieran 100% 51% 14% 2% - - -
48 PENG Yue 100% 81% 42% 12% 2% - -
49 BUCCELLATO Joel S. 100% 89% 51% 11% 1% -
50 RUSSELL Tallis 100% 69% 25% 4% - -
51 WALLACE James 100% 97% 81% 46% 14% 2%
52 MANITT Philip 100% 50% 12% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.