National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div III Men's Épée

Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Baird Center - Milwaukee, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SUN Lucas 100% 100% 95% 80% 50% 19% 3%
2 MILINKOVIC Maksim 100% 99% 91% 66% 32% 9% 1%
3 RVACHEV Michael 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 19% 3%
3 VOO Lucas 100% 100% 95% 80% 50% 19% 3%
5 MARTIN Mason 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 35%
6 WANG Marcus 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 21% 4%
7 LI Timothy 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 3%
8 COHEN Joshua 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 2%
9 MATHES Caleb 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 56%
10 WILSON Ian G. 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 25% 4%
11 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 17% 2%
12 JEONG Arisu 100% 100% 98% 88% 64% 30% 7%
13 OSHIMA Robert 100% 94% 73% 40% 14% 3% -
14 GARBER Robert A. 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 17%
15 MUDGE Lachlan 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 23% 4%
16 WU Jerry 100% 100% 94% 75% 42% 13% 2%
17 PECKENS Tyler 100% 100% 100% 95% 72% 29%
18 MOORE Alexander 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 26%
19 GOODMAN Benjamin 100% 100% 95% 79% 48% 18% 3%
20 GUO Luke 100% 97% 82% 49% 17% 2%
21 CHAKRABORTY Zorian 100% 100% 95% 74% 36% 7%
22 VRUBEL Eli 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 53%
23 LAWLOR Lee 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 31%
24 AYOTTE James 100% 100% 97% 86% 58% 25% 5%
25 GOVOROV Alexander 100% 92% 65% 29% 8% 1% -
26 LEE Henry 100% 98% 85% 57% 26% 7% 1%
27 ST CLAIR Soren 100% 94% 70% 35% 11% 2% -
27 POHL Philip 100% 99% 94% 74% 42% 13% 2%
29 GUMEDELLI Mohnish 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 31%
30 BAUMAN Colin 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 2% -
31 SPRINGER Elijah 100% 97% 80% 48% 17% 3% -
32 WEINSTEIN Ethan 100% 92% 62% 25% 5% -
33 FELICIANO Damien 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 17%
34 SAMIMI Sina 100% 96% 76% 42% 13% 2%
35 RUFANOV Maxim 100% 100% 99% 90% 66% 31% 6%
36 BANNEN Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 17%
37 RAHMAN Zayd 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
38 INGHILTERRA Luca 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 17% 2%
38 LI Grayson 100% 99% 91% 63% 24% 3%
40 LEECH Braedan 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 5%
41 HEDGES Lux 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 7%
42 ZANKOWSKI Brendan 100% 95% 73% 33% 6%
43 MITSCH Aubrey 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
44 CHIZ Max H. 100% 99% 93% 67% 24%
45 DELONG Joshua 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
45 SCHWITZER Eliot 100% 98% 85% 57% 26% 7% 1%
47 RAMEY Daylon 100% 97% 81% 49% 19% 4% -
48 JEON Kaden 100% 97% 77% 38% 10% 1%
49 GADHVI Darius 100% 99% 90% 67% 35% 11% 2%
50 MOSKOWITZ Martin 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 26%
51 JIANG Harry 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 6% 1%
52 RODRIGUEZ Alex 100% 97% 80% 47% 16% 2%
53 GAO Ryan 100% 80% 41% 12% 2% -
54 REICHMANN Theo 100% 99% 94% 74% 40% 10%
55 ARZT Nicholas 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 13%
56 DENG Destin 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
57 KOFMAN David 100% 100% 96% 83% 56% 24% 5%
58 ST.CLAIRE-KING Tenzin 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 7%
58 TIEKING Noah 100% 94% 71% 39% 13% 3% -
60 MARSH Alex 100% 100% 95% 79% 47% 15% 2%
61 SCHAUER Oliver 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1%
63 MARTIN Dirk 100% 98% 84% 48% 12%
64 BROWN Korbyn 100% 99% 90% 64% 30% 8% 1%
65 BRASSARD Calvin 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 13%
66 MA Ryan 100% 100% 97% 86% 59% 25% 4%
67 ZHOU alex 100% 99% 94% 74% 38% 9%
68 SNYDER Michael T. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 36%
69 ROBINSON Ezekiel 100% 99% 90% 65% 33% 9% 1%
70 JERDEE Colton 100% 93% 68% 33% 10% 2% -
71 REID Wesley 100% 99% 89% 62% 26% 5%
72 DINH Nam 100% 99% 95% 78% 46% 17% 2%
73 FITZGERALD Thomas R. 100% 98% 85% 57% 26% 7% 1%
74 ZHANG Jason 100% 96% 74% 37% 10% 1%
75 DILDA Griffin 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 4%
76 YANG Alex 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 7% 1%
77 EVANS George 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 42% 11%
78 SENECHAL Alexander 100% 100% 97% 86% 60% 28% 6%
79 EVANS Joseph 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 9% 1%
80 VARON David 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 7%
81 MAGNUSON Thomas 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 6% 1%
82 MORI Seneca 100% 100% 97% 84% 58% 25% 5%
83 HAMILTON Travis 100% 95% 76% 43% 16% 3% -
84 NUGENT Curtis 100% 81% 42% 13% 2% -
86 SAHA Sayan 100% 100% 97% 84% 57% 25% 5%
86 MATOS Adrian 100% 100% 95% 80% 51% 21% 4%
88 PATEL Aayan 100% 99% 89% 63% 30% 8% 1%
89 URCIOLI Phenix 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 13% 1%
89 ASIALA Niilo 100% 93% 69% 35% 10% 2% -
91 JADHAV Tanay 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 15% 2%
92 BUTTA Robert 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
93 HANNA Alexander 100% 86% 53% 20% 4% - -
94 MILLER Brent 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 3%
95 ALABI Azryl 100% 94% 71% 35% 10% 1% -
96 VARNEY Douglas W. 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 43% 11%
97 WHITE Aidan 100% 99% 86% 54% 21% 4% -
97 KARLEKAR Veer 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
99 WASSERMAN Jacob 100% 90% 60% 25% 6% 1% -
100 MILLER Joshua J. 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 17%
101 RAHMAN Ali 100% 85% 49% 17% 3% - -
101 KIM Remington 100% 99% 90% 68% 36% 12% 2%
103 CHAU Collin 100% 97% 81% 50% 19% 4% -
104 PAPP Mike 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 46% 13%
104 ERIZE Alex 100% 93% 61% 24% 5% 1% -
106 ANDERSON Donald 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
107 MUENKE Torben 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 3% -
108 CZACHOROWSKI Mark 100% 96% 76% 41% 12% 2%
109 FRALEY Orion 100% 83% 43% 11% 1%
110 PAN Anthony 100% 99% 93% 70% 31% 6%
111 BATISTA Julian 100% 94% 72% 37% 11% 1%
111 HALE Bradley 100% 68% 26% 5% - -
113 WATERS Nathaniel 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 16%
113 JARRATT Isaac 100% 80% 41% 12% 2% -
115 SRIKANTH Hariharan 100% 99% 89% 63% 30% 8% 1%
116 AU Joshua 100% 93% 68% 35% 11% 2% -
117 SARMIENTO Luke 100% 92% 66% 30% 8% 1% -
118 TENHUNDFELD Jack 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 21% 3%
119 SI Anderson 100% 91% 60% 25% 5% -
120 MEIER Nicholas M. 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% - -
121 WONG Vansen 100% 90% 61% 27% 7% 1% -
121 ADAMS Tyler 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 22% 4%
123 VANCE Wyatt 100% 97% 82% 53% 23% 6% 1%
124 ALVIOR Jonathan Adrian 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
125 BUTTA Reese 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 3% -
126 NUNEZ Jorge 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 9% 1%
127 VENZON Gavin 100% 86% 52% 20% 5% 1% -
128 DREWRY William 100% 100% 97% 81% 48% 16% 2%
129 PAULSEN Zachary 100% 100% 99% 89% 57% 16%
130 WILLIAMS Richard 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 27% 5%
131 SOTO Michael 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
132 STEVENS Owen 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% - -
132 SCOTT Alex 100% 99% 94% 75% 44% 16% 3%
134 BACON Corban 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
135 MALAHOWSKI Patrick 100% 96% 78% 46% 18% 4% -
136 FENG Xinmin 100% 82% 44% 14% 3% - -
137 DEPAUW Achiel 100% 96% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
138 GRANT Grayson 100% 83% 47% 17% 3% - -
139 ALEXANDER Christopher 100% 100% 96% 83% 55% 23% 4%
139 CHEN Vincent 100% 99% 95% 78% 47% 18% 3%
141 LI Ray 100% 98% 84% 53% 20% 3%
142 DAVIDSON James 100% 90% 59% 24% 6% 1%
143 CLAYTON Byron 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 28%
144 RICHMOND Ozan 100% 80% 39% 9% 1%
145 WAID Ian 100% 99% 94% 74% 40% 10%
146 VRUBEL Nathan 100% 87% 56% 23% 6% 1% -
147 SATHYAN Dev 100% 94% 68% 32% 9% 1% -
148 OLSON Joseph 100% 94% 72% 38% 13% 2% -
149 DOLLARHITE Tommy 100% 90% 60% 27% 7% 1% -
150 SEABLOOM Jack 100% 98% 89% 65% 33% 10% 1%
150 BENUCCI Vincent 100% 90% 53% 17% 3% -
152 COLE Perrin 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 6% -
152 MCKILLOP Matthew 100% 99% 91% 67% 35% 10% 1%
154 CHABIE Austin 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
155 LOMBARD Alexander 100% 90% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
157 CHOI Daniel 100% 97% 82% 50% 18% 3% -
158 SIGGINS Wally 100% 66% 25% 6% 1% - -
159 BOHLER-PARK Henry 100% 96% 76% 42% 13% 2% -
160 EMERSON Zachary 100% 92% 66% 32% 9% 1% -
161 GOODMAN Craig 100% 54% 15% 2% - - -
162 PRICE Cory J. 100% 98% 88% 64% 32% 10% 1%
163 HOWE Robert 100% 100% 97% 83% 55% 22% 4%
164 FRIEDMAN Andres 100% 92% 66% 32% 10% 2% -
165 SEYMOUR Phoenix 100% 60% 18% 2% - -
166 MARTELL Antonio 100% 91% 62% 28% 7% 1% -
167 CARCELLER Jeremias 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
168 HARRISKING Benjamin 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 16% 2%
169 SMITH Samuel J. 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1%
170 GARRISON Shawn 100% 71% 30% 7% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.