American Challenge RJCC/RYC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Event Center at Valley Forge - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOOSHI Dylan M.	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
2	BAE Kevin	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
3	OURSLER Jack	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
3	HORSLEY Alexander	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
5	COSTELLO Chaissen F.	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
6	STRAYER Andrew	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-
7	ZHANG Yun Isaac	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
8	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
9	JOSEPH Dominic (Dom)	-	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
10	SCHENCK Koen M.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
11	WU Nicholas	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
12	LIN James G.	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
13	BUERGIN Aidan	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
14	DEGROOT Blake	1%	19%	38%	29%	10%	2%	-
15	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	2%	25%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
16	DEGREMONT Henri S.	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
17	FOGELSON Frederick J.	-	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
18	PAE Brian L.	3%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
19	KOBAL Maximilian	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
20	GAO William	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
21	AHN Jun	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
22	DAI Jonathan T.	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
23	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
24	HOOSHI Jayden C.	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
25	MOHAMED Murad	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
26	TRAUGOT Owen G.	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
27	LIN Michael	4%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
28	PYO Michael M.	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
29	LIU Eric Y.	1%	12%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
30	MOHAMED Amir	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
31	WECHSLER Jacob	2%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
32	FEDONCHIK Henry J.	1%	12%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
33	LEWIS Akhil	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
34	SELL Ethan J.	10%	36%	36%	15%	2%	-
35	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
36	PO Oliver	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
37	DRESSEL Jet	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
38	SRINIVASAN Vedant	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
38	GARDOS Noah	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	MCGRANE-MOFFITT Nolan A.	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	SMITH Carter	76%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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