American Challenge RYC/RJCC Reg Opens 1/15

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 8:00 AM

King of Prussia, PA - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KUMAR Aidan	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
2	FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T.	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
3	RICHARD Owen	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	CHOI Marcus	-	11%	43%	39%	7%
5	CHOI Mason	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
6	TAHOUN Aly	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	3%
7	CAO Albert	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
8	WU Jonathan	-	10%	44%	39%	6%
9	ZHAO corey	-	-	5%	31%	64%
10	PARK Frederick	-	2%	18%	45%	34%
11	BORODITSKY Ethan	-	-	4%	28%	68%
12	OTTO Nathaniel B.	3%	18%	41%	34%	5%
13	LEE Hudson	4%	27%	45%	21%	3%
14	MAHESH Tarun	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
15	DODIN David	-	1%	11%	42%	45%
16	GAO Daniel	-	6%	29%	45%	20%
17	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	17%
18	WOLFE Alex	1%	8%	25%	36%	25%	6%
19	CAO Brad	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
20	BINDAS Odinn A.	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
21	SHCHUR Landon	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
22	WANG Max S	10%	53%	31%	5%	-
23	JIN Daniel	-	6%	28%	47%	19%
24	SINGH Aryaman	19%	47%	29%	6%	-
25	FENG du	67%	28%	4%	-	-
26	CHEN Jun Ho	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
27	LEE Samuel Y.	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
28	CHERPELIS George	7%	42%	39%	11%	1%
29	ZHANG William	41%	44%	14%	2%	-
30	ROLLO Emmett H.	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
31	LAI Aiden	32%	41%	21%	5%	1%	-
32	LAI Boden	18%	42%	32%	8%	-
33	ZHANG Richard	2%	21%	44%	28%	6%
34	CHANG Benjamin	17%	41%	33%	9%	1%
35	ZHANG ethan	3%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-
36	HU Robert J.	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
37	XIE Brandon	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
38	SINGH Ravin	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%
39	WANG Trontour	27%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
40	CHIMOSKEY Finn D.	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
41	SHOUSHA Yassin	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
42	LAM Alan	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
43	PARK Nicholas	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
44	DA GRACA Tyler	75%	23%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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