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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KROPP Jack	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
2	WANG Clayton	1%	13%	41%	33%	10%	1%
3	KIM Dylan J.	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	5%
3	CLICK Aiden	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	53%
5	SU Caleb	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
6	JORDAN Anton	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	11%	1%
7	NORTH Alexander M.	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
8	HENSAL Nicolas A.	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
9	PARK Ian C.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
10	CAO Albert	-	1%	11%	36%	43%	8%
11	LEE Daniel Y.	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
12	CHAWLA Armaan	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	11%
13	LEE Samuel Y.	-	2%	10%	27%	37%	22%	3%
14	KING Cameron	-	1%	11%	36%	40%	12%
15	WIMMER Nathaniel P.	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	15%
16	ZHANG Caden	8%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
17	CHEN Eric	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
17	CAO Brad	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	6%
19	BERNARD Jack B.	5%	26%	41%	24%	4%	-
20	KWOUN Miles S.	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
21	DUAN eric	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	5%
22	LEE JoonWon	2%	19%	42%	29%	7%	1%
23	TRIMMER Colin	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
24	XU Alex	-	1%	7%	29%	42%	21%
25	SPITTLE Jake	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
26	SHEN Max	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
27	POIST Wylie	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%	-
28	JANG Elliot	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
29	ROTHKA Spencer J.	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
30	LAM Bill	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
31	LEONE III Charles D.	-	< 1%	2%	16%	43%	39%
32	WANG Tristan	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%
33	FISHMAN Rahm	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
34	SINGH Aryaman	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
35	LIN Harrison	6%	38%	40%	14%	2%	-
36	FU Ethan	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
37	SELLAR Ian	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
38	MILLER Kurt	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
39	PASZKOWIAK Jacob	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
40	JONES Tyler	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
41	ZHANG Andy	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
42	SO Lorenzo	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
43	PENHOET Adrien E.	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
44	AMOLSCH Dylan	73%	24%	2%	-	-	-
45	TIRADO Giancarlo	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
46	HUTTO Joshua	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
47	ILYAS Zakariya	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
48	WANG Trontour	5%	26%	41%	24%	4%	-
49	CIGLIANO Benjamin I.	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
50	PILIPOWSKYJ Luke	15%	58%	23%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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