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The Fencing Center Winter RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 4:30 PM

The Fencing Center of San Jose - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHIRASHNYA Daniel	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
2	SARKAR Anish	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	ANDERSON Kai	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-
3	CHEN Bailey	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
5	ZAYDMAN David M.	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
6	GENCHEV Madav	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
7	CASTELLY Luke	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
8	CHANG Andrew	1%	7%	23%	36%	25%	7%	1%
9	SEO Shawn	-	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	15%
10	JAIN Samyak	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
11	LEE Bryson	-	6%	24%	37%	24%	7%	1%
12	DOWDELL Riley	-	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	11%
13	LIU Noah	-	1%	14%	36%	35%	13%	1%
14	SIM Ian	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
15	JONES Caleb	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	13%
16	CHAKRAVARTHY Arjun	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
17	CHIRASHNYA Adam	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
18	LOMIO Nicholas A.	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
18	YUEN Nathan	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	17%
20	MANA Arnav	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
21	CLAES Thomas	-	4%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-
22	LAI Alexander	3%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
23	TONG Samuel	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
24	KNUDSEN Travis	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
25	ZHUANG William	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
26	RICHARD silas	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	9%
27	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
28	WONG Preston	9%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-
29	NG Biwon	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
30	WONG Ethan	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
31	WU Johnny y.	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
32	SARKAR Agniv	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	25%
33	ROBINSON Samuel	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
34	LEVENTAL Mark	-	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
35	GUO Woody	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
36	CHENG Trevor	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
37	PLOSCARU Matthew	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
38	LI Yunji (Rain)	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
39	BHARGAV Angad	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
40	HSU Joshua	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
41	YAN Eric	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
42	LIN Jason	35%	50%	13%	1%	-	-	-
43	GADHVI Darius	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
44	YOUNG Quentin	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
45	MITCHEM Paolo	55%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
46	KIM Remington	34%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
47	WEBB Jeremey	43%	47%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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