USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Div I-A Men's Foil

Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Minneapolis, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GASSNER Ethan I. - - - - 5% 29% 65%
2 KAO Castor T. - - - 3% 17% 41% 38%
3 ZENG Lucas H. - 1% 8% 26% 41% 25%
3 WU Alexander - - 4% 15% 34% 34% 13%
5 MCCLAIN Bryce C. - - 4% 16% 34% 33% 12%
6 LEE Aidan - - 4% 15% 33% 34% 13%
7 BING Charles - 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 4%
8 NUNNINK Phillip W. - - 3% 16% 38% 33% 9%
9 DIVITO Dylan - - 1% 6% 24% 43% 27%
10 MAGIDSON Gabriel - - 2% 12% 30% 38% 18%
11 SONG Aiden S. - - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
12 LOCKWOOD Owen - 1% 6% 26% 44% 24%
13 YI Stephen K. - - 1% 6% 27% 44% 22%
14 SONG Leonardo T. - 2% 12% 32% 37% 16%
15 ZHENG Alan H. - - 1% 10% 31% 40% 17%
16 LOVIN Vlad 4% 20% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
17 SCHENCK Koen M. - - 1% 7% 28% 43% 21%
18 SIU Aiden - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 7%
19 BALL James T. - - 3% 14% 32% 35% 15%
20 FOGELSON Frederick J. - 3% 15% 34% 35% 13%
21 COSTELLO Chaissen F. 1% 8% 34% 45% 12%
22 AHN Jun - - 3% 14% 32% 35% 15%
22 BUERGIN Aidan - 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4%
24 MILLER Jeffrey E. - - 2% 11% 29% 39% 19%
25 ZHAI Jeffrey - 4% 17% 35% 32% 11%
26 HAN Lawrence 4% 23% 37% 26% 9% 1%
27 LIN Richard W. - 3% 14% 33% 36% 15%
28 DESHMUKH Arjun 14% 45% 33% 7% -
29 SICHITIU Alexander - 3% 17% 35% 32% 12% 1%
30 PYO Michael M. - 1% 7% 22% 36% 27% 8%
31 FULTON Richard A. 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 6% 1%
32 LEE Jacob 2% 13% 30% 32% 18% 5% -
33 SEZER Kaya - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 12%
34 GRISWOLD Abel B. - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
35 TSIMIKLIS Yanni - 4% 17% 31% 30% 14% 2%
36 HONDA Kazu Z. - 1% 6% 20% 35% 30% 9%
36 SULLIVAN Jackson R. - - - 1% 10% 36% 53%
38 SIMA Congyu Josh 3% 16% 31% 31% 15% 4% -
39 THAYER Jake T. - - 4% 15% 33% 34% 13%
40 LEWIS Paul D. - 1% 7% 28% 43% 21%
41 ADLER David R. - 2% 10% 30% 40% 18%
42 ELKOUSY Laith H. 4% 21% 36% 28% 10% 1%
43 SCHULZE-KALT Graydon L. - 3% 17% 35% 33% 11%
44 OH Samuel H. - 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 5%
45 MOORE Jeremy S. - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 17%
46 SONG Bryan 3% 17% 33% 30% 14% 3% -
47 MEJIA MATTHEW D. 5% 20% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
48 WYMAN Julian - 2% 10% 27% 36% 22% 3%
49 KUO Evan 28% 42% 24% 6% 1% -
50 DEGREMONT Henri S. - 4% 21% 40% 28% 6%
51 WELCH Kyle J. - - 6% 34% 59%
52 KNIZHNIK David 2% 14% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
53 LIN Michael 1% 8% 23% 33% 24% 9% 1%
54 SCHAEFER Joshua M. 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
54 LI Matthew 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
56 JIANG Owen - 4% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
57 GAO William 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 5% -
58 ELWOOD Sebastian F. 8% 30% 36% 20% 6% 1% -
59 PAI Dong-Ying 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
60 DIERKS Kian 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5%
61 KEE Andrew L. 4% 20% 36% 28% 10% 1%
62 LAURICELLA Douglas - 1% 4% 16% 33% 33% 13%
63 TSAY Jeremy M. 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 10% 1%
64 WILLIAMS Connor J. 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
65 RUSADZE Nickolas - 1% 4% 17% 33% 32% 12%
66 QUINONES Diego A. - 7% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1%
67 ZILINSKIY Eduard - 2% 12% 31% 37% 16%
68 NAGER Noah 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 4%
69 MICKELSON Jacob P. - 5% 17% 32% 30% 14% 2%
70 LI Eric - 5% 17% 32% 31% 13% 1%
71 LI Richard - - 1% 6% 22% 42% 30%
72 WHITEHEAD Amir 2% 18% 36% 30% 12% 2% -
73 JU Alexander (Alex) Y. - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 6%
74 SHA Yi Peng 1% 6% 21% 37% 28% 8%
75 SUNG Chang-Han S. 1% 10% 29% 36% 20% 4%
76 KIM Ryan Y. 7% 28% 37% 21% 6% 1%
77 DETERING Julian 3% 18% 34% 30% 13% 3% -
77 DAVIDSON Elliot 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
79 GONG Benjamin 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
80 SEAL Maximus R. 16% 35% 31% 14% 3% - -
81 DOBBINS Evan W. - - 4% 16% 34% 33% 12%
81 CANLAS Nathan 1% 10% 26% 33% 22% 7% 1%
83 ZELTSER Lawrence M. 1% 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 1%
84 HOWARD Michael - 2% 14% 34% 34% 14% 2%
85 VALOUEV Aleksey 4% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2% -
86 UPTON Craig 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
87 KHER Roan 26% 40% 25% 8% 1% - -
88 ORVANANOS Jorge 6% 23% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
89 HSIUNG Richie 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
90 FORTUNE Alexander J. 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
91 TEMPLE Jackson 1% 10% 28% 36% 20% 4%
92 PRASANNA Advaith 13% 38% 35% 12% 2% -
93 SHIN Joshua J. 4% 20% 36% 29% 11% 1%
94 KITAGAWA Eric S. 35% 41% 19% 4% - -
95 CHOUN Samuel Minwook - 2% 12% 32% 37% 16%
96 WOO Christian - 4% 18% 34% 30% 12% 1%
96 ZHENG Zhe 3% 19% 37% 30% 9% 1% -
98 MYERS Dean 19% 38% 29% 11% 2% - -
99 DU Samuel R. - 1% 6% 22% 36% 27% 8%
100 JI Aidan Y. 7% 25% 35% 24% 8% 1% -
100 LEE Jonah 5% 33% 39% 18% 4% - -
102 WECHSLER Jacob 10% 29% 34% 20% 6% 1% -
103 HOBSON Aaron K. 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
104 TRAUGOT Owen G. 6% 23% 35% 25% 10% 2% -
105 STRAYER Andrew 3% 19% 36% 29% 11% 2% -
106 WANG Michael 13% 34% 33% 16% 4% - -
106 REYES Omar 3% 16% 32% 30% 15% 3% -
108 KIM Derek A. 4% 21% 37% 27% 10% 2% -
109 LI Jett 25% 42% 26% 7% 1% - -
110 GATRELL Mitchell E. 1% 16% 38% 32% 11% 2% -
111 GUERRA Gabriel H. 4% 19% 34% 28% 12% 3% -
112 KUZMAK Michael J. 10% 31% 34% 19% 5% 1% -
113 WANG Eric J. - 5% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2%
114 LI Samuel 14% 35% 33% 14% 3% - -
115 STRUGAR Marcus A. 4% 27% 45% 21% 2%
116 TAN Christien 5% 22% 36% 27% 9% 1%
117 JAUME Andrei 6% 29% 38% 21% 5% 1%
118 FINLEY Dylan 27% 41% 24% 6% 1% -
119 LI Avery Peihong 11% 35% 37% 15% 3% -
120 WONG Garrick G. 4% 20% 36% 28% 10% 1%
121 WANG Winston 23% 40% 27% 9% 1% -
122 BERK Theodore 1% 8% 23% 34% 25% 8% 1%
123 CHENG Nathan 2% 10% 27% 34% 21% 6% -
124 LIU Eric Y. - 4% 17% 32% 30% 14% 2%
125 SHAFAIE Ali - < 1% 2% 11% 29% 38% 20%
126 LUH Ethan K. 1% 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 2%
126 TALASILA Arush 72% 24% 3% - - - -
128 FINNEY Lorenz 13% 33% 33% 16% 4% - -
128 SONG Austin 24% 40% 26% 8% 1% - -
130 ACHILOV Sayid 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
131 SMITH Erick 10% 34% 37% 16% 3% - -
132 CLAYMAN John A. 5% 25% 38% 25% 6% 1% -
133 ZENG Michael L. 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 4% -
133 GATZA Logan 1% 14% 34% 33% 15% 3% -
135 PALMA Matthew Dominic 7% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
136 ORLOV Dmitriy 10% 30% 35% 19% 5% 1% -
137 LISONDRA Niko 8% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
138 WILKINS Mateo 25% 44% 25% 6% 1% -
139 TEH Ryan 48% 41% 11% 1% -
140 WHEELOCK Bryan M. 37% 41% 17% 4% - - -
141 BERNABE Rafael 46% 39% 12% 2% - -
142 MIN Eric 2% 14% 33% 33% 15% 2%
142 LIN James G. 5% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1%
144 HUANG Eythan 48% 39% 12% 2% - - -
145 TSAO Lukas 15% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
146 POPE Alexander 66% 29% 4% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.