San Diego SYC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 1:00 PM

San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SINGHA Orion	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
2	LATIF IMRAN ZAKARIYYA	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
3	PRASAD Ankith	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
3	LIN Kyran	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
5	ALVAREZ Ian T.	-	-	6%	26%	44%	25%
6	DEKERMANJI Christopher	-	-	1%	8%	43%	48%
7	WRIGHT Christopher	1%	13%	36%	37%	13%
8	DRIBIN Ezra	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	22%	2%
9	NOEL Sebastien A.	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
10	WANG DEVON	1%	17%	40%	32%	9%	1%
11	BAGCHI Aritra	9%	31%	38%	18%	3%	-
12	JAIN Aditya	-	-	3%	21%	49%	27%
13	BRUSKOTTER Reiland	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
14	JIN daniel	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
15	BAZHENOV Anthony	1%	8%	32%	42%	18%
16	NIKOLOV Peter	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
17	PARK Elliot	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	6%
18	CHU Allan	1%	15%	37%	35%	12%	1%
19	ZHANG Alec	1%	12%	39%	37%	11%	1%
20	MCDONALD Ethan	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
21	GAITHER Christopher W.	2%	18%	40%	33%	7%
22	ZHANG Yuelin	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	2%
23	CARRIER Gabriel A.	3%	24%	41%	26%	6%
24	THOMAS Michael	8%	32%	37%	19%	4%	-
25	KIM Nathan	1%	12%	35%	37%	13%	1%
26	EVANS noah	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%
27	GUPTA-GARCIA Raj	38%	45%	15%	2%	-	-
28	SHA Michael	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
29	GREGSTON Layland	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	-
31	SCOFIELD Thien J.	11%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-
32	HIGGINS Branford	1%	13%	35%	36%	13%	1%
33	YAO Geoffrey B.	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
34	CASASSOVICI Georges	1%	13%	35%	36%	14%	1%
35	MITTLER Frederick	14%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
35	WANG owen	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
37	MENDOZA Zander	< 1%	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
38	SINHA Zaan	75%	22%	2%	-	-	-
39	KIM Sullivan	57%	35%	8%	1%	-
40	RAINEY Daniel	23%	48%	24%	5%	-	-
41	PHUKAN Rohin	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-
42	KNUDSEN Travis	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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