USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Div I Men's Foil

Tuesday, July 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Minneapolis, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LI Brandon H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 47%
2 WINTERBERG-POULSEN Jonas 100% 100% 95% 74% 34% 6%
3 MATHIEU Adam 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 42%
3 KUMBLA Samarth 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 18%
5 CHEN Allen 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 22% 4%
6 PAIK Joon K. 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 26%
7 SERVELLO Augusto 100% 100% 100% 94% 68% 23%
8 DICKSON Farr R. 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 17% 3%
9 HUTH Jacob 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 1%
10 LIANG Lixi (Henry) 100% 99% 92% 71% 39% 13% 2%
11 CHEN Andrew 100% 100% 98% 85% 52% 15%
12 HO Jia Le Sean 100% 97% 79% 46% 16% 3% -
13 UM Ethan A. 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 47% 12%
14 BANERJEE Anup 100% 98% 84% 54% 21% 4% -
15 CHEN Ziyuan 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 25% 4%
16 CULLIVAN Justice 100% 96% 75% 40% 13% 2% -
17 LOUIE Bryce 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 60%
18 KAO Castor T. 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 25% 5%
19 LEE Jacob J 100% 93% 68% 31% 7% 1%
20 KELLY William J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 27%
21 ZHANG Andy W. 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 16% 2%
22 TAN Lawrence (Lance) E. 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 25% 5%
23 LEWIS Paul D. 100% 88% 52% 16% 2% -
24 KIM Nicholas W. 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 14%
25 LI Owen 100% 98% 82% 49% 17% 3% -
26 MACHOVEC Andrew C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 55%
27 XIAO Ethan J. 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 8%
28 NDIAYE Edriss G. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
29 KIM Yonjae 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 2% -
30 ONIK Elijah T. 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 10% 1%
31 KASI Sanjay 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 12%
32 HAMILTON Bogdan A. 100% 100% 97% 75% 27% 3%
33 ZHANG Daniel D. 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
34 XIAO Leon (Ruibo) 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
35 SEZER Kaya 100% 98% 87% 57% 23% 5% -
36 HOOSHI Jayden C. 100% 98% 86% 54% 19% 2%
37 LYU Victor 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
38 KO Brian J. 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 15%
39 GRAHAM Roy J. 100% 100% 96% 78% 43% 13% 1%
40 BOROWIAK Arwen 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 28%
41 HOLMES Stuart S. 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 15%
42 SONG Aiden S. 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
43 SULLIVAN Jackson R. 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 26% 5%
44 FREEDMAN Samuel E. 100% 92% 64% 27% 6% 1%
45 LIU Niles J. 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 40%
46 VAZQUEZ Zander 100% 91% 62% 26% 6% -
47 GODZHIK Zachary 100% 98% 82% 49% 17% 2%
48 GASSNER Ethan I. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 26%
49 AUGUSTINE Ethan A. 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 25% 5%
50 JANG Jaewon 100% 100% 99% 91% 70% 36% 9%
51 SINGH Dayaal 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 16% 2%
51 GLASSON Joseph 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 1%
53 DAI Jonathan T. 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 7% 1%
54 DESERANNO Jeidus 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 32% 7%
55 STANLEY Mason B. 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 10% 1%
56 SCHENCK Koen M. 100% 99% 92% 71% 39% 12% 2%
57 BING Charles 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
58 MURUHIN Yaroslav 100% 95% 67% 29% 7% 1% -
59 WONG Garrick G. 100% 87% 53% 19% 3% -
60 LI Richard 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 10%
61 KIM Brandon J. 100% 99% 89% 62% 27% 5%
62 IVERSON Shane D. 100% 100% 98% 88% 57% 18%
63 JOSEPH Dominic (Dom) 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 12% 1%
64 XIAO Enoch A. 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 46% 14%
65 BAS Liam 100% 99% 93% 70% 36% 10% 1%
66 HUTH Mitchell 100% 100% 96% 82% 52% 20% 3%
67 BRUK Peter J. 100% 98% 85% 53% 20% 3%
68 LIU Patrick 100% 100% 94% 73% 36% 8%
69 LI Eric 100% 91% 62% 26% 6% -
70 CHEN James P. 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 24%
70 MARTINEZ Donavyn E. 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 26% 4%
72 ZUSIN Zachary W. 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 22%
73 LAURICELLA Douglas 100% 96% 79% 47% 18% 4% -
74 GROSSMAN SMISEK Spencer E. 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 16% 2%
75 WELCH Kyle J. 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
75 LUTAR Lucas N. 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 24% 4%
77 SONG Leonardo T. 100% 99% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
78 DORAN Wesley C. 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% - -
79 LEE Aidan 100% 96% 79% 48% 19% 4% -
80 LI Raphael C. 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
81 LEE Jacob 100% 68% 26% 5% 1% - -
82 LO Conrad 100% 100% 95% 75% 37% 8%
83 MITCHELL Philip D. 100% 95% 72% 33% 8% 1%
84 SHIN Philip D. 100% 99% 94% 72% 35% 7%
85 KAISER Hans Z. 100% 96% 77% 40% 11% 1%
86 YU Vinni 100% 100% 97% 85% 52% 15%
87 HOWARD Michael 100% 68% 25% 5% - -
88 BUERGIN Aidan 100% 95% 75% 43% 16% 3% -
89 DIERKS Kian 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1% -
90 LEE Chris 100% 78% 39% 11% 2% - -
92 HOOSHI Dylan M. 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 22% 3%
93 MCCLAIN Bryce C. 100% 97% 81% 49% 19% 4% -
94 ARIZA Isaac A. 100% 96% 73% 37% 11% 2% -
95 RUSADZE Nickolas 100% 97% 84% 55% 24% 6% 1%
96 CHIN Julian S. 100% 85% 41% 8% 1% -
97 BURKE Spencer W. 100% 99% 93% 70% 36% 10% 1%
98 YI Stephen K. 100% 99% 89% 61% 27% 6% -
99 ZHENG Alan H. 100% 87% 51% 17% 3% -
100 KWON Ethan 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 19%
101 OURSLER Jack 100% 99% 93% 71% 36% 8%
102 YANG Luao 100% 99% 89% 60% 22% 3%
103 GOOR Julian 100% 98% 85% 54% 19% 3%
104 LIN Dashiell 100% 76% 34% 8% 1% -
105 ZHANG Henry C. 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 2%
106 CHENG Matthew S. 100% 82% 45% 15% 3% -
106 JEON Caleb A. 100% 99% 89% 61% 24% 4%
108 SHAFAIE Kaveh 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 20% 3%
109 HSIUNG Richie 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
110 FUKUDA Alessio R. 100% 97% 79% 46% 17% 3% -
111 WU Nicholas 100% 99% 89% 62% 27% 6% -
112 ZHAI Jeffrey 100% 97% 82% 49% 18% 3% -
113 KLOSTERMANN Max 100% 93% 66% 32% 10% 2% -
114 FOGELSON Frederick J. 100% 97% 80% 49% 19% 4% -
115 SNYTSHEUVEL John Evan (Evan) 100% 100% 98% 91% 69% 36% 9%
115 GIRALDO Pablo E. 100% 96% 77% 42% 13% 2% -
115 MICKELSON Jacob P. 100% 78% 40% 12% 2% - -
118 JAIN Aditya 100% 94% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
119 SHA Yi Peng 100% 96% 80% 50% 20% 5% -
120 JIANG Owen 100% 93% 66% 30% 7% 1% -
120 LU Yikai 100% 85% 49% 17% 3% - -
122 SCHULZE-KALT Graydon L. 100% 97% 81% 47% 16% 3% -
123 ZENG Lucas H. 100% 98% 87% 60% 28% 7% 1%
124 LINDNER Ruben 100% 100% 96% 79% 48% 18% 3%
125 DANKAR Neel 100% 81% 44% 15% 3% - -
126 CHENG Nathan 100% 63% 19% 2% - -
127 AHN Jun 100% 89% 53% 18% 3% -
128 YU Eric W. 100% 100% 96% 79% 42% 10%
129 DAVIS Christopher M. 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% -
130 ZHAO Jason L. 100% 96% 77% 41% 12% 2%
131 GAO William 100% 87% 53% 18% 3% -
132 WU Alexander 100% 99% 91% 65% 28% 5%
133 CHUNG Andrew N. 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 23%
134 AYUPOV Ilya 100% 99% 93% 71% 39% 12% 2%
135 PELOSKY Zack B. 100% 98% 86% 56% 23% 5% -
136 LIN Richard W. 100% 97% 81% 47% 17% 3% -
137 BAE Kevin 100% 98% 84% 51% 19% 3% -
138 MION Lorenzo 100% 99% 92% 71% 39% 13% 2%
139 SUNG Chang-Han S. 100% 77% 37% 10% 2% - -
140 MURRAY Maximo 100% 86% 51% 18% 3% - -
141 REALS Alden D. 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 15% 2%
142 DU Samuel R. 100% 91% 56% 15% 2% -
143 ZELTSER Lawrence M. 100% 76% 35% 9% 1% -
144 DOCTOR Aidan L. 100% 81% 42% 12% 2% -
145 ZHANG Yun Isaac 100% 85% 50% 17% 3% - -
145 SICHITIU Alexander 100% 88% 57% 24% 6% 1% -
145 DEGROOT Blake 100% 53% 14% 2% - - -
148 LI Jiaan 100% 99% 93% 69% 32% 6%
148 OH SEAN 100% 79% 39% 11% 1% -
150 CANO Marcos E. 100% 74% 33% 8% 1% - -
150 MORAIS Paulo 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 35% 8%
152 STRAYER Andrew 100% 61% 20% 3% - - -
153 HEITZ Noah 100% 54% 14% 2% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.