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Premier Challenge ROC(D1A, DV2, VET), RJCC & PARA

Div I-A Men's Épée

Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GORNOVSKY David J. - - - - 2% 31% 67%
2 BEZRODNOV Alexander - - - 1% 8% 39% 52%
3 BEZRODNOV Michael - - - 2% 20% 59% 19%
3 WU Joseph - - - 3% 15% 40% 43%
5 LAI Aedin - - 2% 11% 29% 38% 20%
6 JEYOON Ryan S. - - - 1% 9% 36% 55%
7 BEDOR William J. - - - 2% 12% 40% 46%
8 LACROIX Floryan - - 2% 13% 37% 40% 8%
9 AGAON Shawn - - 2% 15% 41% 42%
10 PARK Frederick - - - 4% 19% 41% 35%
11 SERAFIN Ben 1% 9% 29% 37% 21% 4%
12 BENJAMIN Julio F. - - - - 3% 26% 70%
13 RICHARD Owen - - 4% 19% 40% 32% 4%
14 GAO Daniel - - 1% 9% 28% 41% 21%
15 HOWARD Michael - 2% 11% 31% 36% 17% 3%
16 ZHANG Ethan - 4% 16% 33% 32% 13% 1%
17 ARAVIND Athreya - - 4% 18% 36% 32% 9%
18 MACARTY Jordan T. - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
19 DOYON - VERDON William - - 3% 16% 42% 39%
20 MANN JAKEROD - 1% 7% 25% 42% 26%
21 CHAI Jonathan - 1% 9% 29% 40% 21%
22 ZHAO kuncheng 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1%
23 GALLANT Antoine - - 1% 6% 27% 45% 21%
24 ALFAIATE Lucas - - 3% 18% 41% 33% 5%
25 PHO Eric - - - 4% 21% 45% 30%
26 XIAO Hanzhi (Shawn) 1% 9% 24% 33% 24% 8% 1%
27 DOYON - VERDON Gabriel - - 3% 15% 37% 35% 9%
28 LING Valdis - - 2% 10% 32% 40% 17%
29 CHEN Jun Ho 2% 12% 29% 33% 18% 4% -
30 CAUCHY Eliot 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
31 STRAUSS Luke - - 3% 12% 29% 36% 18%
32 LI Zachary - 7% 28% 40% 21% 4% -
33 MAO Benjamin - - 5% 20% 38% 30% 7%
34 LIOU Solomon - - 3% 14% 33% 35% 14%
35 NIKOLOV Peter - - 2% 13% 35% 37% 13%
36 SMITH Nicholas S. - - - 3% 16% 41% 40%
37 MATTO Edward J. - 1% 9% 26% 37% 23% 4%
38 WANG zhixing (Daniel) - - 7% 28% 41% 21% 3%
39 PARK Nicholas 1% 7% 25% 38% 25% 5%
40 HE Lawrence - 1% 7% 27% 41% 22% 2%
41 HONDOR Robert D. - - - - 5% 30% 64%
42 CAI Brian - 1% 9% 30% 39% 20% 2%
43 SVERDLOV Seth - 1% 6% 21% 38% 29% 6%
44 SHA Michael - 5% 21% 35% 28% 10% 1%
45 LEE Aiden 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1% -
46 FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T. 1% 6% 22% 35% 26% 9% 1%
47 ZHANG Caden - 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 3%
48 COLLYMORE Spencer T. - - - 5% 26% 49% 18%
49 ZHANG William - 4% 17% 33% 30% 12% 2%
49 ZHAI Avalo - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
51 ZUKOFSKY Zachary 1% 9% 27% 35% 22% 6% 1%
52 JIANG ryan - 4% 19% 37% 31% 8%
53 WU Jonathan - 1% 7% 26% 42% 23% 2%
54 ROLLO Emmett H. - 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
55 GOODWIN Graham 3% 24% 39% 25% 8% 1% -
56 SONG Troy - 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 5%
57 LIU Adam 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 4% -
58 PAN Tristan - 4% 20% 37% 30% 9% 1%
59 LAI Boden - 5% 20% 36% 28% 9% 1%
60 PACYNA ATILLA - - - 1% 10% 38% 51%
61 LEIBOWITZ Ryan 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 2%
62 FUSSMAN Yuval 3% 19% 37% 29% 10% 1% -
63 KOEPPEL Levi E. 7% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1% -
64 RIM Eugene 23% 43% 26% 7% 1% - -
65 HU Robert J. 1% 7% 25% 38% 24% 6% -
66 SAVORETTI Francesco 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
67 GRIFFITHS Ryan - - - - 4% 26% 70%
68 HU Lucas 1% 14% 35% 33% 14% 2% -
69 DISIMONE David Z. - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
70 XIA Dashan - 3% 20% 41% 28% 7% 1%
71 KAO Castor T. - 2% 10% 27% 35% 21% 5%
72 BANKULLA Nihal R. - 2% 10% 32% 41% 14% 1%
73 WILLIAMS Logan 25% 46% 24% 4% < 1% - -
74 ZHAO Corey - - 2% 11% 32% 39% 16%
75 BEALS Alden - 3% 13% 30% 34% 18% 3%
76 AHMED Mohsen 30% 44% 21% 5% < 1% - -
77 UNG Kei 1% 15% 34% 32% 15% 3% -
78 CHU Brandon A. 2% 20% 41% 29% 8% 1% -
79 ZOU Xianyang (Max) 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
80 WU Chi Kuan 63% 31% 6% < 1% - -
81 NORMILE Nicholas 15% 40% 32% 12% 2% -
82 FANG Hanning - 9% 27% 35% 22% 6% 1%
83 SAVORETTI Pietro 5% 21% 35% 28% 10% 2% -
84 KRISHNAN Skanda 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
84 ZHANG Sen 9% 32% 36% 18% 5% 1% -
86 SIYANKO Joshua 1% 8% 27% 36% 22% 6% -
87 ZHENG Alan 6% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
88 YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki 15% 36% 32% 13% 3% - -
89 JIANG Matthew 12% 32% 34% 17% 4% - -
90 AYALA Jaime - 3% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3%
91 WU Colin 1% 11% 39% 35% 12% 2% -
92 RIVERA Louis 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% - -
93 CHENH Justin 6% 27% 39% 22% 5% 1% -
94 GREGORY Abram - 1% 7% 30% 48% 13% 1%
95 GANESAN Mathavan 8% 30% 37% 20% 5% - -
96 KOLKER Gregory A. 1% 6% 24% 38% 26% 6%
97 HOWARD Jackson 21% 40% 28% 9% 1% -
98 DUKO Phillip 12% 35% 35% 15% 3% -
99 TIRRELL Justin J. - 1% 8% 26% 39% 23% 4%
100 OKUN Benjamin 14% 36% 33% 14% 3% - -
101 NABAVI Matthew R. 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3%
101 HU Anton 2% 17% 37% 31% 11% 2% -
101 SOKOL Luke - 4% 19% 34% 29% 11% 2%
104 SCAPICCHIO Stephen 4% 19% 36% 30% 10% 1% -
105 ZHAO Zidong - 2% 12% 29% 35% 19% 3%
106 MIYASAKA Yuki 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4% -
107 GOON Tristan Yang 8% 29% 38% 20% 4% - -
107 SO Lorenzo 3% 18% 36% 31% 10% 1% -
109 GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey 2% 16% 36% 32% 12% 2% -
110 MEN Junda 4% 18% 34% 30% 13% 2% -
111 TRULL A.J. - 1% 11% 40% 36% 11% 1%
112 WANG Xiangdong 9% 32% 39% 17% 2% - -
113 ZHANG Lucas 33% 43% 19% 4% - -
114 LEE Samuel Y. - 5% 22% 38% 27% 7%
115 AGAON Ethan - 7% 27% 38% 23% 5%
116 CHAI Ethan 4% 27% 39% 23% 6% 1%
117 SETO Jing 4% 24% 38% 25% 7% 1%
118 STELTENKAMP Neal 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
119 ZUCKER Noah L. - < 1% - 2% 14% 41% 42%
120 XIE Brandon 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1%
121 BUSH Thomas - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
122 BLAKESLEE Ian 12% 34% 36% 15% 2% - -
123 MASSE Jack 14% 52% 28% 5% - - -
124 DAN Rex 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% - -
125 GOON Sin Tong 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
126 LI Jade 37% 42% 18% 3% - - -
127 XU Che 9% 30% 35% 20% 5% 1% -
128 MANITT Philip 60% 33% 6% - - - -
129 AGGELER Donovan 2% 16% 38% 35% 9% 1% -
130 NILSEN Mark 27% 44% 24% 5% - - -
131 KARIMOV Amir 24% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
132 DORASZELSKI Mark 9% 28% 34% 21% 7% 1% -
132 WONG King-Yee 7% 35% 39% 16% 3% - -
134 JIANG Alex 21% 42% 28% 8% 1% - -
135 FIEDERLEIN Andrew M. 5% 22% 38% 27% 8% 1% -
136 DOWD Peter L. 47% 39% 12% 2% - -
137 NEALE James H. 1% 8% 27% 38% 23% 4%
138 ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman - 6% 25% 38% 25% 6%
139 PENG Yue 12% 36% 37% 14% 2% - -
140 MARTINEZ Joshua 4% 22% 39% 26% 7% 1% -
141 YIN Chujun 25% 42% 25% 7% 1% - -
142 GAO Victor 42% 41% 14% 2% - - -
143 DONG Haiyi 7% 26% 36% 24% 7% 1% -
144 REPIC Oliver 14% 39% 33% 12% 2% - -
145 LIN Zizhen 25% 43% 25% 6% 1% - -
146 PAQUET Mathieu 25% 45% 25% 5% - - -
147 HE Lingyun Matthew 5% 21% 35% 27% 10% 2% -
148 BUIKEVICH Ihnat 64% 32% 4% - - - -
149 HOWELL Liam 77% 21% 2% - - - -
150 LONADIER Robert 61% 32% 6% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.