National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div I-A Men's Épée

Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 1:30 PM

Greater Columbus Convention Center - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ZHENG Andy - 2% 11% 31% 39% 18%
2 KIM Benjamin I. - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
3 MELCHER Jack H. - - - 2% 10% 36% 52%
3 GAO Daniel - - 1% 8% 29% 43% 19%
5 MANN Jake R. - - 4% 18% 36% 33% 8%
6 BRISLAWN Reilly R. - - - 5% 22% 44% 29%
7 KNOX James - - 1% 7% 24% 41% 28%
8 FULLERTON Houston T. - - 1% 7% 26% 43% 24%
9 IRWIN Peter - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
10 SVERDLOV Seth - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
11 SPIER Julian H. - - 1% 7% 24% 40% 26%
12 ZHAO Corey - - 3% 16% 36% 35% 9%
13 LEE Stewart S. - - 4% 15% 31% 35% 16%
14 TIKHOMIROV Theodore 4% 20% 36% 28% 11% 2% -
15 MASON Zander T. - - - 3% 19% 45% 32%
16 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 2% 14% 34% 34% 15% 3% -
17 ARLINGTON Nicholas J. - - - 5% 22% 44% 28%
18 MICKO Fritz K. - 1% 6% 21% 36% 29% 8%
19 ZHANG Caden - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 5%
20 GALLO James - 4% 18% 34% 31% 11% 1%
21 GINZBURG Adam 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 4% -
22 TABLEMAN Doug S. - 1% 8% 29% 41% 21%
22 MAO Benjamin - 7% 30% 40% 20% 3%
24 LAM Alan 4% 21% 38% 27% 8% 1%
25 PARK Frederick - 1% 7% 22% 37% 27% 6%
26 LAI Aedin - 2% 11% 28% 36% 20% 4%
27 GORIUNOV IVAN A. - - 1% 5% 20% 42% 33%
28 CHENH Justin 15% 37% 33% 12% 2% -
29 HEADRICK Lance - 3% 14% 32% 33% 15% 2%
30 JIN Owen - - 5% 19% 36% 31% 9%
31 CONKLIN Jim 1% 11% 30% 34% 19% 5% -
32 ELHUSSEINI Kyle 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
33 SPROWLES Cameron D. - - 1% 7% 25% 41% 26%
34 NORBUTAS Jackson S. - - 2% 12% 41% 45%
35 DONDISCH ilan 1% 6% 20% 33% 28% 11% 2%
36 MARSHALL John W. - - 1% 6% 24% 42% 27%
37 DAVIS Jeffrey H. - 1% 5% 17% 33% 32% 12%
38 SOKOL Luke 8% 28% 37% 21% 5% -
39 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 3% 18% 36% 32% 10% 1%
40 PETERSEN Ephraim 8% 31% 38% 19% 4% -
41 KROPP Jack - 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 6%
42 KIM Sterling S. 2% 10% 25% 32% 22% 8% 1%
43 YANG Boyan - 1% 6% 19% 33% 30% 11%
44 MILLER Jeffrey E. - - - 2% 14% 40% 44%
45 HU Robert J. 3% 18% 37% 31% 10% 1% -
46 KIM Dylan J. - - 2% 12% 34% 38% 14%
47 SNIDER Jeffrey H. - 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 1%
48 NORTH Alexander M. - 1% 8% 28% 42% 21%
49 GOHEL Dayus T. - - 3% 17% 43% 37%
50 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. - - 2% 14% 42% 43%
51 ZHENG Jerry 4% 20% 34% 28% 11% 2%
52 NGUYEN Tate 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7%
53 CHAN Matthew - 2% 10% 30% 40% 18%
54 WU Jonathan - 3% 15% 35% 35% 12%
55 LEE Bryson 20% 40% 29% 10% 1% -
56 XIE Brandon 6% 25% 38% 24% 6% 1%
57 HURME Tommi K. - - - 2% 12% 39% 47%
58 LEONE III Charles D. - 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 3%
59 TIRRELL Justin J. 1% 7% 23% 33% 25% 9% 1%
60 SINGH Ravin 7% 27% 36% 23% 7% 1% -
61 HAMZA Tudor - 1% 5% 21% 39% 27% 6%
62 HOLTZ Donovan K. - - 2% 13% 33% 38% 13%
63 CUMMINGS Atticus C. - 2% 14% 37% 37% 10%
64 RODNEY Maxwell - - 1% 7% 24% 40% 27%
65 PRIHODKO Max - 3% 12% 28% 34% 19% 4%
66 BENACK Steven M. - - 1% 8% 28% 42% 20%
67 SETO Jing 8% 26% 34% 23% 8% 1% < 1%
68 SUVOROV Yuly - 5% 21% 38% 29% 7%
69 ZAYDMAN David M. - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 4%
69 STRAUSS Luke - - 1% 7% 23% 41% 29%
71 KIM Sullivan - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 6%
72 CHEN Jun Ho 3% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2% -
73 KILUK Andrew - 1% 7% 26% 40% 22% 4%
74 FISHMAN Rahm - 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
75 ZEBROSE Cordell B. 1% 8% 32% 40% 18% 2%
75 KENT V David 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2%
77 CARTER Austin L. 1% 5% 18% 31% 29% 14% 2%
78 MCADOO Declan 2% 14% 33% 33% 15% 3% -
79 VACCARO Dominick J. 5% 21% 33% 27% 12% 2% -
80 WRIGHT Christopher - 2% 9% 24% 35% 25% 6%
81 ROTHKA Spencer J. 3% 16% 31% 30% 15% 4% -
82 TIKHONOV Daniel 1% 9% 24% 33% 23% 8% 1%
82 LIU Yikun 1% 11% 31% 35% 18% 4% -
84 YANG Zeph 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1% -
85 MA Victor - 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 5%
86 PARRISH Bryce W. 9% 28% 34% 21% 7% 1% -
86 GLENNON Sebastian J. 2% 13% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
88 KARIMOV Amir 23% 40% 27% 8% 1% - -
89 LEE Jayden J. 13% 33% 33% 16% 4% - -
90 GOLDSON Tyrese 10% 28% 34% 20% 7% 1% -
91 JOHNSTON Conner S. - 3% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3%
92 WILSON Brent (Brent Wilson) A. - 1% 6% 24% 43% 27%
93 BERNARD Jack B. 1% 7% 23% 35% 26% 8%
94 BROOKS Zachary B. - 2% 11% 33% 40% 14%
95 SMITH Troy H. 8% 31% 38% 19% 4% -
96 SEO Shawn 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1%
97 FU Jason 3% 17% 36% 32% 11% 1%
98 GARRETT Samuel - 4% 17% 35% 33% 11%
99 WALLACE James 14% 37% 34% 13% 2% -
100 YAMASAKI Kyle A. - - 3% 13% 31% 37% 16%
101 TIEMANN Landen 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
102 KHAYAT Ziad N. - - - 3% 18% 43% 36%
103 LAI Boden - 5% 20% 35% 29% 10% 1%
104 GANESAN Mathavan 6% 24% 34% 25% 9% 2% -
105 ZHANG ethan 1% 9% 26% 34% 22% 6% 1%
106 DAO Alexander 5% 21% 33% 27% 11% 2% -
107 MUNLIN Donovan - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
108 THAKUR Om S. - 4% 17% 31% 31% 14% 2%
109 CARTY JR Johndale 1% 11% 28% 35% 20% 5% -
110 BUSH Thomas 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 13% 2%
111 DISIMONE David Z. - 4% 16% 30% 31% 15% 3%
112 LI Yunji (Rain) 7% 24% 34% 24% 9% 2% -
113 KIM Ian 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 4% -
114 DANIELS Jonah 7% 26% 37% 23% 6% 1%
115 CORBIN Bennett 2% 12% 32% 35% 16% 3%
116 MIZRAHI Michael 21% 49% 25% 5% - -
117 THOMAS Samuel - 1% 7% 26% 43% 24%
118 JIANG ryan 1% 8% 24% 35% 24% 7% 1%
119 CHOI Kaiden I. 1% 7% 21% 33% 27% 10% 1%
120 JAIN Samyak 16% 35% 31% 14% 4% - -
121 CHRISTENSEN Parker 1% 7% 24% 36% 25% 7% 1%
121 TOLLEFSON Zachary 3% 16% 31% 30% 15% 4% -
123 WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N. - - < 1% 2% 15% 41% 41%
124 BRODSKY Julian 2% 11% 26% 33% 21% 6% 1%
125 COHEN Jared E. - 3% 12% 27% 33% 20% 5%
126 ELHUSSEINI Dylan 2% 11% 26% 33% 22% 7% 1%
127 CHUNG Joshua 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6% -
128 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
129 SMITH Justin C. - 1% 9% 28% 38% 20% 3%
130 PARK Nicholas 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
131 CHIEN Brandon - 1% 9% 26% 36% 22% 5%
132 STENCEL Andrew E. 1% 8% 23% 33% 25% 9% 1%
133 GREGORY Nova (Abram) 4% 18% 32% 29% 14% 3% -
133 LIU Noah 10% 32% 36% 18% 4% - -
135 SONG Troy 5% 27% 38% 23% 6% 1% -
136 ELLISON Harper F. 2% 14% 34% 33% 14% 2% -
137 TOUSSAINT Semaj 2% 12% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
138 WANG justin - 3% 12% 28% 33% 19% 4%
138 SO Lorenzo 3% 16% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
140 LESCURE Dimitri 16% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
141 DOUBOV Andrew 5% 20% 33% 27% 12% 3% -
142 PALLADINO Ben T. 7% 26% 35% 23% 7% 1% -
143 LIU Adam 8% 33% 37% 18% 4% - -
144 DU SHUNYU K. 5% 24% 38% 25% 7% 1%
145 REPIC Oliver 15% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
146 OLIVERIUS Joseph W. - 2% 12% 33% 40% 13%
147 FULLER George K. - 2% 12% 33% 39% 15%
148 ZOU Xianyang (Max) 6% 24% 35% 25% 9% 2% -
149 NOWAK Jakub P. - - 2% 10% 30% 40% 17%
150 ELZAYN Hadi S. 3% 17% 36% 31% 11% 2% -
151 SHIRLEY Kai 13% 36% 34% 14% 2% - -
152 WEGENER Soren 12% 33% 34% 17% 4% - -
153 ZHANG Roland 48% 38% 12% 2% - - -
154 LEE JoonWon 1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2%
155 STELTENKAMP Neal 9% 28% 34% 21% 7% 1% -
156 DOWD Peter L. 30% 43% 22% 5% - - -
157 DAN Rex 39% 40% 16% 3% - - -
158 MODANLOU Navid 6% 24% 37% 25% 8% 1% -
159 WU Johnny y. 24% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
160 ZHANG William 18% 39% 30% 10% 2% - -
161 CAI Brian - 2% 11% 30% 36% 17% 3%
162 AGARWAL Adheesh - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
163 SEBASTIAN Alexander P. 7% 30% 37% 20% 5% 1% -
163 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 2% 12% 29% 32% 19% 6% 1%
165 SINHA Zaan 9% 29% 34% 20% 6% 1% -
166 PAYNE Massimo 8% 29% 38% 21% 4% -
167 CHEN Bailey 8% 31% 38% 18% 4% -
168 LEWIS Jared 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
169 LIN Kason 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% -
170 BREILING Niklas 13% 36% 34% 14% 2% -
171 YU Austin 3% 17% 33% 31% 14% 3%
172 KYPRAIOS Nicholas 1% 9% 25% 33% 23% 7% 1%
173 MODULLA Yathin R. 4% 22% 37% 26% 9% 1% -
173 BAILEY David 4% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2% -
175 XIA Dashan 5% 20% 33% 27% 12% 3% -
176 LEE Aiden 16% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
177 YU Samuel 43% 41% 14% 2% - - -
178 PETERSON Matthew 4% 17% 32% 30% 14% 3% -
179 MILLER Lance W. 8% 29% 38% 20% 5% - -
179 GONZALES Wesley - 5% 20% 33% 28% 11% 2%
181 CHOI Zachary - 4% 16% 30% 30% 15% 3%
182 MIAO Quentin 7% 25% 34% 24% 9% 2% -
183 BELLIVEAU Emmett S. 4% 22% 37% 27% 8% 1% -
184 TATE William Isom 22% 39% 28% 10% 2% - -
185 CHEMEZOV Trent 12% 32% 33% 17% 4% 1% -
186 GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey 30% 43% 22% 5% - -
187 ZHUANG William 20% 40% 29% 10% 1% -
188 LEE DoWon 25% 42% 25% 7% 1% - -
189 HERNANDEZ SANTIAGO 13% 33% 33% 17% 4% -
190 NUDELMAN Aleksandr 5% 22% 37% 27% 9% 1%
191 CHEN Brian 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 4% -
191 WONG Preston 44% 40% 13% 2% - - -
193 MAZZOLI Julio C. 1% 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 2%
194 EMMERT JP 15% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
195 REDDY Arya 25% 42% 25% 7% 1% -
196 KIM Teo 46% 42% 11% 1% - -
197 RICHARDSON Ray 49% 38% 11% 1% - - -
197 LU Jacob 5% 22% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
199 DENIZE Paul Edmond Alexandre 7% 25% 35% 24% 8% 1% -
200 WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M. 20% 40% 29% 9% 2% - -
201 HULL Liam 11% 32% 35% 18% 5% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.