February NAC

Div I Men's Foil

Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Duke Energy Convention Center - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 MEINHARDT Gerek L. - - - - 3% 28% 69%
2 CHEN Ziyuan - - 2% 15% 44% 39%
3 GASSNER Ethan I. - - - - 3% 26% 70%
3 DESERANNO Jeidus - - 3% 20% 52% 25%
5 GRAHAM Roy J. - - - 1% 9% 36% 54%
6 WANG Aaron - - 1% 6% 22% 42% 30%
7 BUDOVSKYI Borys - - 2% 10% 30% 39% 19%
8 CHEN Matthew - 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 2%
9 KUMBLA Sidarth - - - - - 12% 87%
9 SENIC Lucas - - 2% 12% 32% 38% 16%
11 OLIVARES Marcello G. - - - - 3% 24% 73%
12 YANG Luao - - - 3% 17% 41% 38%
13 ZHANG Daniel D. - - - 2% 14% 46% 38%
14 CHOI Ethan - 5% 23% 39% 25% 6% 1%
15 KIM Daniel Y. - 3% 15% 32% 33% 15% 2%
16 LO Conrad - - 1% 7% 24% 41% 27%
17 LIU Jinning - 1% 7% 32% 47% 12%
18 STANLEY Mason B. - 3% 19% 44% 33%
19 CO Dylan - - 4% 20% 39% 29% 7%
19 LU Royce Youshi - 1% 10% 29% 37% 19% 3%
21 KUMBLA Samarth - - - 1% 9% 38% 52%
22 RUSADZE Nickolas - - 3% 19% 40% 32% 7%
23 CULLIVAN Justice - - 2% 14% 40% 36% 7%
24 TANG Alexander L. - 3% 17% 38% 32% 9% 1%
25 ZHENG Alan H. - - 2% 13% 33% 37% 14%
26 CHENG Ethan - 3% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2%
27 HASHIMOTO Shoei - - - 3% 17% 43% 37%
28 TAN Aidan - 1% 8% 27% 39% 22% 3%
29 KIM Nicholas W. - - 1% 12% 39% 41% 7%
30 SNYTSHEUVEL John Evan (Evan) - 1% 13% 40% 36% 9%
31 LI Toby Muhua 1% 10% 28% 35% 21% 5% -
32 YU Vinni - - < 1% 4% 21% 48% 27%
33 JEON Caleb A. - - 1% 10% 29% 40% 20%
33 LIN Youlong - - - 2% 16% 44% 38%
35 SISINNI Riccardo - - 1% 6% 24% 42% 27%
36 ELWOOD Sebastian F. - - 2% 13% 34% 39% 11%
37 LIU Derek - 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 3%
38 LI Bradley - 1% 6% 24% 44% 26%
39 CHEN Kyle P. - 2% 10% 27% 36% 22% 5%
40 CHAMLEY-WATSON Miles C. - - - - 2% 21% 76%
41 DINSAY Kristjan 1% 9% 27% 35% 21% 6% 1%
41 LO Preston - 3% 17% 37% 33% 9% -
43 HUTH Jacob - - 4% 19% 37% 31% 9%
43 CHO Jadon Yushin - 3% 16% 34% 31% 12% 2%
45 LING Eddie - 3% 16% 35% 33% 11% 1%
46 QIAN Jason H. - 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
46 RASMUSSEN Sage - 1% 6% 24% 38% 25% 6%
48 MITBERG Gregory W. - - - 3% 16% 42% 39%
48 LI Richard Y. - - 5% 21% 40% 28% 6%
50 LU Yikai - 1% 6% 24% 42% 25% 2%
51 SIU Aiden - - 1% 9% 42% 48%
52 VAABEN Frode - 4% 19% 38% 29% 9% 1%
53 SIMONOV Timofey 1% 8% 27% 38% 21% 4% -
54 WONG Adrian - 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 4%
55 CORTRIGHT Skipper - 4% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
56 ONIK Elijah T. - - - 5% 21% 43% 31%
56 CANLAS Nathan - - 1% 10% 31% 40% 18%
58 ROSE Ben - - 1% 7% 27% 45% 20%
59 BAS Liam - - - 5% 34% 61%
60 CHEN Hanson - 1% 10% 29% 38% 20% 2%
61 HAYES Stewart 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5% -
62 MATSAKH Philip - - - 5% 21% 42% 31%
63 HUANG Jonathan 3% 31% 43% 20% 4% - -
64 OH SEAN 2% 24% 44% 24% 5% - -
65 BOURTIS James S. - - - 2% 14% 40% 44%
66 EMMER Chase T. - - - - 5% 32% 63%
67 TRAUGOT Owen G. - - 1% 8% 30% 46% 15%
67 XU Jia Bao (Bowen) - - 1% 9% 28% 40% 22%
69 TSIMIKLIS Yanni 1% 8% 32% 45% 14%
70 CHEN Charlie Tian-You 1% 12% 31% 34% 18% 4% -
71 WU Alexander - - - 1% 9% 39% 51%
72 ZOBEL Eric H. - 1% 8% 30% 38% 20% 4%
73 GRIFFITH JACK - - - 4% 18% 41% 37%
73 LI Matthew - 3% 13% 31% 35% 16% 1%
75 MORAIS Paulo - - - - 5% 30% 64%
76 DERRICK Blake - 1% 5% 19% 36% 31% 9%
77 LIN James G. - 2% 10% 28% 35% 21% 4%
78 VILLACRESES Mathias 10% 32% 35% 18% 4% < 1% -
79 YAO Bradley 1% 12% 36% 39% 11% 1%
80 KNIZHNIK David - 1% 8% 26% 39% 23% 3%
81 KATAYAMA Kevin - - 1% 7% 27% 42% 23%
82 CHAN Tyler - 3% 16% 32% 32% 14% 2%
83 DOELL Ethan - 5% 27% 45% 20% 2%
84 KAO Castor T. - - 1% 11% 46% 42%
85 JIANG Owen 2% 15% 39% 35% 9%
86 GUTH Joseph 2% 13% 37% 38% 10% 1%
87 ZOU QINGCHU - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
88 PARRISH Evan 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
89 DESHMUKH Arjun - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 17%
90 CHENG Logan 3% 19% 36% 29% 10% 2% -
91 YU Jason - 1% 9% 27% 39% 21% 2%
92 BAI Brian 1% 9% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
93 CHEN Ethan 1% 17% 36% 31% 12% 2% -
94 CHOI Benjamin 20% 44% 29% 7% - -
94 LU Kevin 1% 9% 29% 36% 20% 4% -
94 SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn 2% 16% 36% 32% 12% 2% -
97 LI Solin - - 7% 33% 43% 16% 1%
98 ZHAO Jason L. - - 3% 14% 34% 36% 12%
99 FUKUDA Diego - 9% 28% 36% 21% 6% -
100 DESANDO Michael R. - 3% 21% 38% 28% 9% 1%
101 RAUTUREAU Hugo - 4% 17% 36% 32% 9% 1%
102 ZHANG Yun Isaac - 1% 8% 25% 38% 24% 5%
103 XIE Buster 3% 20% 38% 28% 9% 1% -
104 WEI Qiancheng (Matt) - 3% 19% 37% 30% 10% 1%
105 ELKOUSY Zain al Din 2% 12% 33% 35% 16% 3% -
106 MAZAHERI Fletcher 6% 29% 41% 21% 3% -
107 GATRELL Mitchell E. 12% 40% 36% 11% 1%
108 GUERRA Gabriel H. 2% 14% 38% 36% 10%
109 LEWIS Akhil - 1% 6% 25% 44% 24%
110 KIM Yonjae - - 3% 19% 50% 29%
111 LOUIE Bryce - - - < 1% 2% 19% 79%
112 LI Aaron 2% 14% 35% 34% 13% 2% -
113 ASHIDA Tomoaki 8% 28% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
114 DIERKS Kian - - 5% 19% 36% 31% 10%
115 MION Lorenzo - - 4% 21% 43% 28% 4%
116 OZAWA Taishi 2% 15% 34% 33% 14% 2% -
117 LIN Michael - - 3% 14% 34% 37% 13%
118 TANG Owen S. - 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3%
118 LE Jacob H. 2% 12% 30% 33% 18% 5% 1%
120 TIYA BIAYA K. - 1% 7% 26% 41% 24% 2%
121 KIM Ryan Y. - - 3% 17% 37% 34% 9%
122 OROSZLAN Daniel 2% 23% 42% 27% 6% - -
123 WU Alber Y. - 4% 17% 33% 31% 13% 2%
124 HOLLIS Sean 28% 44% 22% 5% - - -
125 NGUYEN Martin 6% 30% 43% 19% 3%
127 SHIN Noah 45% 42% 12% 1% -
128 YAO Pincheng 12% 40% 34% 12% 2% - -
129 DAI Jonathan T. - 1% 9% 29% 37% 20% 3%
130 RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen - 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2%
131 WANDJI Noah - 5% 18% 34% 30% 11% 1%
132 ZHANG Jacob 4% 20% 37% 28% 10% 1% -
133 YOON Junhyeok 7% 28% 38% 22% 5% - -
134 SCHIENEMAN Valentine 30% 43% 22% 5% < 1% - -
135 GHEDINI Luca 4% 21% 39% 27% 8% 1% -
136 FREEDMAN Samuel E. - 1% 8% 23% 35% 25% 7%
137 BURKE Spencer W. - 1% 9% 35% 42% 14%
138 GU Daniel - 1% 11% 41% 47%
139 WONG Evan 7% 30% 41% 19% 3% -
140 WONG Garrick G. - 11% 35% 38% 14% 2% -
141 COSTELLO Chaissen F. - - 2% 15% 37% 35% 11%
141 SHENG Dalton 2% 14% 31% 32% 17% 4% -
141 HAN Changhee - 7% 26% 36% 23% 6% 1%
144 LIU Ethan - 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2%
145 LEE Jaden 13% 38% 34% 12% 2% - -
146 CHOI Ethan 8% 30% 36% 20% 5% 1% -
146 ZHOU Chenqiao 1% 11% 29% 34% 19% 5% -
148 STRUGAR Marcus A. 2% 20% 38% 29% 10% 2% -
148 ZHENG Marcus 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
150 SHAGIDANYAN German 2% 19% 37% 29% 11% 2% -
150 PECK Quinn 19% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
152 BAILEY William F. - 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1%
153 HARROCH Faustin 26% 41% 25% 7% 1% - -
153 WUJASTYK Leon - 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 1%
155 YU William 9% 29% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
156 ISOLANI Gregorio - - 5% 25% 41% 24% 4%
157 LIU Zixian 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 3% -
158 SUAREZ Adrian 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5% -
159 LAO Scott E. - 1% 9% 36% 40% 14% 1%
159 YI William W. - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 2%
161 GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
162 BIELER Mason 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
163 KETTELLE John 7% 28% 38% 22% 5% -
164 CHEUNG Hank 21% 45% 28% 6% - -
165 LIU Aaron 6% 36% 42% 15% 2% -
166 HOWLAND Jonas 6% 25% 38% 24% 6% -
167 CHA James 5% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
168 PAN Qiwen - 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2%
169 WANG Elijah (QiChen) 16% 39% 32% 11% 1% - -
170 QIU Zhaocheng 6% 30% 39% 20% 4% - -
171 CHANG Jonathan 2% 29% 49% 18% 2% - -
172 VANOYEN Dominick 32% 42% 21% 5% 1% - -
173 DESOLA Aidan J. 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1% -
173 HE Patrick - 3% 16% 36% 33% 11% 1%
173 WU Tong - 2% 10% 27% 36% 21% 4%
176 SONG Aiden S. - 4% 16% 33% 33% 13% 1%
177 LEWIS Paul D. - 1% 8% 27% 38% 22% 4%
178 SHANNON Jack 22% 42% 27% 8% 1% - -
179 RAJ Jay 5% 24% 38% 24% 7% 1% -
180 LIM Charlie 22% 43% 27% 7% 1% - -
180 ZHONG Maxwell 4% 20% 35% 28% 10% 1% -
182 HAINES Ethan 1% 10% 30% 36% 19% 4% -
183 BAE Kevin - - 3% 15% 40% 39% 3%
183 HUTH Mitchell - - < 1% 2% 12% 40% 45%
185 LI Edison M. 10% 33% 37% 17% 3% - -
186 ZHOU Ryan 3% 28% 46% 20% 4% - -
187 XU Andy P. - 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1%
187 PARK Sky 1% 10% 30% 36% 19% 4% -
189 RODRIGUEZ Tyler 2% 16% 34% 31% 13% 2% -
190 CHAN Matthew 7% 28% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
190 KORABLIN Anton - - 4% 21% 42% 29% 4%
192 ZHANG Aaron 1% 7% 24% 34% 25% 9% 1%
193 RUFFNER Blake W. 3% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2% -
194 CHEN Raymond - - 4% 18% 35% 32% 10%
195 ZHAO Brian 23% 42% 26% 7% 1% - -
196 WANG Michael 4% 23% 38% 26% 8% 1% -
197 XU Xinhao ( Sonny) - 2% 10% 29% 37% 20% 3%
198 GRIFFIN John O. - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
198 JAUME Andrei 1% 12% 35% 35% 14% 2% -
198 LI Samuel 24% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
201 ALLEN Henry G. 6% 27% 38% 22% 6% 1% -
202 BLACK Zachary 11% 31% 35% 18% 4% - -
203 NEWMAN Noah 50% 40% 10% 1% - - -
204 METZ Mason 43% 41% 14% 2% - - -
205 CHEN Anson 32% 44% 20% 3% - -
206 SONG Noel 10% 36% 40% 13% 2% -
207 GULCHIN Mark (Yerma) 23% 44% 26% 6% -
208 CHUANG Oscar 5% 23% 38% 27% 7% 1%
209 RAUTUREAU Arthur 4% 30% 44% 19% 3% -
210 WANG Rory 29% 46% 22% 3% - -
211 CLARK Benjamin 27% 45% 23% 5% - - -
212 JU Alexander (Alex) Y. 2% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2% -
213 ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan 14% 44% 32% 9% 1% - -
214 PANAGIEV Stefan-Damian D. - 4% 16% 32% 31% 14% 2%
214 YIN Zixin(Gavin) 23% 45% 25% 6% 1% - -
216 ORLOV Dmitriy 19% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
217 ROZALSKI Eli - 4% 22% 40% 27% 6% -
218 KUE Temujin 20% 42% 29% 8% 1% - -
219 OURSLER Jack - < 1% 1% 5% 20% 42% 33%
219 LIPPMAN Sam 7% 29% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
221 HUA Aaron 16% 39% 32% 11% 2% - -
222 PARK William 21% 41% 28% 9% 1% - -
222 KIM Daniel 56% 35% 8% 1% - - -
224 SFINTESCU Alex 82% 17% 1% - - - -
225 ZHANG Songhao Steven - < 1% 3% 17% 38% 33% 9%
226 BURTE Alexander J. 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2% -
226 WONG Jacob W. 33% 43% 19% 4% - - -
226 DAUM Charlie 5% 46% 40% 8% 1% - -
229 CHO Xzander 47% 38% 12% 2% - - -
230 MARTIN Darius 2% 24% 42% 26% 6% - -
230 BAI Austin 19% 41% 30% 9% 1% - -
232 PINKERTON Joseph H. 24% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
232 PLUMMER Waylon 18% 42% 30% 9% 1% - -
234 TANG Terry 3% 20% 37% 28% 10% 1% -
235 HICKEY Connor 6% 41% 40% 12% 1% - -
235 MCISAAC Finn 19% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
237 PASHBY Stephen N. 17% 51% 26% 5% 1% - -
239 ZAIDI Adil 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% - -
240 MORROW Brenden 29% 45% 22% 4% -
241 HUANG Eythan 1% 7% 26% 37% 23% 6% -
241 FAN Sean 72% 25% 3% - - - -
243 LEE Brendan 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
245 AKYAMAC Bora 4% 19% 36% 29% 10% 1% -
245 BAKSHI Aman 44% 40% 13% 2% - - -
247 TANG August L. 14% 40% 34% 10% 1% -
248 GNEUHS Sam 24% 43% 25% 6% 1% - -
249 NOFZIGER Bennett 60% 35% 5% - - - -
250 SISINNI Leonardo 26% 44% 25% 5% - -
250 YOU Martin 76% 21% 2% - - - -
252 MARTIRE Luca 35% 42% 19% 4% - - -
253 TOOMRE Kai 66% 29% 4% - - -
254 LU Andy 19% 40% 30% 9% 1% - -
255 HOLLIDAY Christopher Mansfield-Scott 17% 40% 31% 10% 1% - -
256 BARRETT Austin 46% 40% 12% 2% - - -
256 HARKINS Asher 80% 18% 1% - - - -
256 RIVERA Miguel 79% 20% 2% - - - -
259 BLAKEMAN Michael J. 51% 37% 10% 1% - - -
260 YEVDAYEV Tamir 69% 26% 4% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.