The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Div II Men's Épée

Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Minneapolis, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LOWE-THORPE Tyler 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 12%
2 NOVOJILOV Alexei 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
3 TREBON Hayden 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 14%
3 LANGENDERFER Braeden 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 38% 9%
5 IMREK Elijah S. 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 7%
6 CHIRASHNYA Daniel 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 17% 2%
7 WANG Tristan 100% 99% 91% 66% 31% 6%
8 ULINICH Alexander 100% 100% 95% 76% 42% 13% 2%
9 PAHLAVI Kamran 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 20% 4%
10 ZAYDMAN David M. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 47% 14%
11 KIM Andrew J. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 43% 11%
12 WIECHMANN Colin 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 8%
13 SPINA Joseph B. 100% 96% 78% 44% 14% 2%
14 LAI Aedin 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5%
15 WU Marcus 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 14% 2%
16 HUTTO Joshua 100% 98% 86% 56% 22% 4%
17 MCDANIELS Jeremy 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 27%
18 XU Alex 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
19 SUN Jason 100% 99% 94% 76% 45% 16% 3%
20 MULCAHY Olaf 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 7%
21 SHETTY Surya 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 14%
22 O'HARROW Tristan C. 100% 100% 96% 82% 52% 21% 4%
23 PETROV Niki A. 100% 94% 72% 38% 13% 2% -
24 SARKAR Anish 100% 100% 96% 83% 55% 23% 4%
25 KNUDSEN Travis 100% 97% 81% 46% 14% 2%
26 HARR Carver 100% 94% 72% 38% 12% 2%
27 ZHOU Stanley Q. 100% 100% 99% 90% 61% 20%
28 LEE JoonWon 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 16% 2%
29 MURPHY Thomas P. 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 8%
30 CAO Brad 100% 98% 87% 57% 22% 3%
31 FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T. 100% 100% 98% 89% 62% 25% 4%
32 DALTON Matthew 100% 95% 71% 34% 9% 1%
33 HERMANSON David B. 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 12%
34 BASOK Nikita 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 15%
35 LEHR William D. 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
36 GALLO James 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 15%
37 ABBOUD Michael 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 56% 18%
38 GUNDA Saketh 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 15%
39 WANG Trontour 100% 97% 79% 43% 13% 1%
40 JUN Jaywu 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
41 CHOI Kaiden I. 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
42 DANIEL Camron 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 13%
43 YAO Derek (Shunyu) 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 2%
44 SHA Michael 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 2%
45 LOESER Jacob 100% 100% 96% 82% 52% 20% 3%
46 VACCARO Dominick J. 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 23% 4%
47 NATSVLISHVILI John Vano 100% 99% 94% 75% 44% 15% 2%
48 WATT Darren 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
49 ZHANG William 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
50 ARANA Abraham 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 11% 1%
51 CHRISTENSEN Parker 100% 98% 88% 62% 30% 8% 1%
52 COETZEE Frans M. 100% 95% 75% 41% 13% 2%
52 UVAROV Andrii 100% 100% 95% 76% 40% 9%
54 BEAVER Aaron 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% -
55 MAHESH Tarun 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 25% 5%
56 ROLLO Emmett H. 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 36% 9%
56 SIMPSON Patrick 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
58 ZHANG Zixian (Shawn) 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 3% -
59 PARK Augustine 100% 97% 81% 50% 20% 5% -
60 KNECHT PRANGE Patrick 100% 100% 94% 71% 35% 10% 1%
61 DONDISCH Ilan 100% 93% 68% 34% 11% 2% -
62 O'CONNOR Riley 100% 95% 74% 40% 13% 2%
63 BERKOWITZ Jeffrey 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 14% 2%
64 SCHARF Ryan 100% 100% 96% 77% 43% 14% 2%
65 CASTLE Aaron 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 19%
66 SAVORETTI Francesco 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 6%
67 IARIKOV Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 17%
68 CONKLIN Jim 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 19%
69 DU Shunyu K. 100% 89% 58% 24% 6% 1% -
70 DUBOIS Peter 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 23%
71 TIRADO Giancarlo 100% 94% 69% 32% 9% 1% -
72 JORDAN Anton 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 6%
73 GOING Nicholas (Nick) S. 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 21%
74 LOISEAU Eliott 100% 99% 93% 70% 31% 6%
75 ALGER Caleb (CJ) J. 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
76 BOGUSLAVSKY Daniel 100% 100% 99% 88% 57% 17%
77 CHAMBLISS Logan C. 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 24% 4%
78 BHARGAV Siddharth 100% 99% 90% 65% 29% 7% 1%
79 DELAND Stuart R. 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 31% 6%
80 NIKOLOV Peter 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 46% 14%
81 SERAFIN Ben 100% 99% 93% 74% 41% 14% 2%
82 GULLO Kenji Y. 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 24% 5%
83 CHEN Jun Ho 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 29% 6%
84 PRIHODKO Max 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 44% 12%
84 ZHU Eric 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 15% 2%
86 JENSEN Daniel G. 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 55% 17%
86 DAVIS Jonah 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% 1%
88 TEH Steven 100% 97% 81% 50% 19% 4% -
89 PAK Elliot 100% 98% 87% 60% 28% 7% 1%
90 TORRES Gianni 100% 96% 75% 40% 13% 2% -
91 JONES Caleb 100% 100% 98% 88% 56% 17%
92 CHUNG Yeongbin 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 14%
93 DRIBIN Ezra 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 13%
94 SCHERNIKAU Jack 100% 95% 72% 34% 8% 1%
95 VELUVALI Vivek S. 100% 99% 92% 69% 32% 7%
96 CARRIER Gabriel A. 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 27%
97 FU Ethan 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% -
98 WADE Grayson 100% 97% 80% 47% 16% 2%
99 ZHANG Nathan 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
100 SHCHUR Landon 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 12%
101 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 35% 8%
102 JOHNSON Jay 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 42% 11%
103 WENGER Caleb 100% 98% 87% 61% 29% 8% 1%
104 BURGESS James E. 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
104 PARCELEWICZ John M. 100% 99% 91% 69% 36% 11% 1%
106 JONES Dominic R. 100% 99% 89% 65% 33% 10% 1%
107 STEPHENS Corbin 100% 97% 80% 49% 20% 4% -
107 FU Leon 100% 99% 92% 70% 38% 12% 2%
109 QUITORIANO Matthew 100% 98% 83% 53% 21% 4% -
110 BANKULLA Nihal R. 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 27% 5%
111 KOPPE Alexander 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 28% 6%
111 LEE Chun Po 100% 100% 94% 73% 39% 12% 2%
113 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 92% 66% 32% 10% 2% -
114 BAGCHI Aritra 100% 96% 79% 48% 18% 4% -
115 SILVERS Ari 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 29% 6%
116 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 100% 96% 77% 44% 15% 3% -
117 WANG Max S 100% 86% 50% 16% 3% -
118 XIAO Andrew 100% 98% 85% 53% 20% 3%
119 MUSEL Daniel 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 8%
120 ROBINSON Matthew 100% 91% 61% 25% 5% -
121 CROSSMAN Brandon 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 8%
122 EVERS Gabriel 100% 95% 74% 41% 15% 3% -
123 BRODSKY Julian 100% 89% 60% 27% 7% 1% -
124 LEADBETTER Gordon 100% 98% 83% 52% 21% 5% -
125 KUBATIN Anton V. 100% 91% 63% 29% 8% 1% -
126 OSTIGUY Cameron 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
127 HANNON Owen 100% 98% 87% 62% 30% 8% 1%
128 GAO Zachary 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
129 TIKHOMIROV Theodore 100% 96% 78% 44% 14% 2%
130 ASGARALLY Anthony 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 9%
131 KIM Sullivan 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 7% 1%
132 WANG David 100% 99% 91% 67% 34% 10% 1%
133 MCADOO Declan 100% 98% 84% 55% 24% 6% 1%
134 AYMETT Robert (Skip) S. 100% 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 3%
135 GERSEN Jacob 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 10% 1%
135 FENG du 100% 98% 85% 57% 25% 6% 1%
135 KMOSKO Nicholas 100% 90% 53% 19% 4% - -
138 DOWDELL Riley 100% 98% 88% 61% 28% 7% 1%
139 MORTIMER Gavin 100% 96% 77% 45% 16% 3% -
140 JANKOWICH Alexander E. 100% 98% 83% 52% 19% 3%
141 YANG Zeph 100% 91% 57% 20% 3% -
142 RICHARD silas 100% 83% 46% 15% 3% -
143 VELINOV Gabriel 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 5%
144 AYABINA JR John 100% 89% 57% 22% 5% -
145 SCHIAVONE Oreste 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% -
146 PARKER Riley D. 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 6%
147 EVANS Grant 100% 97% 82% 50% 18% 3%
148 POZOVSKIY Mitchell R. 100% 100% 99% 90% 66% 31% 6%
149 TOLLEFSON Zachary 100% 81% 43% 14% 3% - -
150 HEADRICK Lance 100% 98% 88% 63% 31% 9% 1%
151 BROWN Allan 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
152 PENG Gregory 100% 97% 82% 52% 22% 5% 1%
153 SINHA Zaan 100% 90% 60% 24% 6% 1% -
154 MALAHOWSKI Patrick 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
155 CHIZ Max H. 100% 100% 98% 88% 64% 30% 7%
156 LIMER Avi 100% 99% 92% 69% 36% 11% 1%
157 CHIN Dylan A. 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
158 LEE Bryson 100% 97% 83% 53% 23% 5% 1%
159 MA Bochen 100% 99% 92% 70% 38% 12% 2%
160 JONES Reilly 100% 91% 65% 31% 9% 2% -
161 JOSLIN Tyler 100% 98% 87% 60% 28% 7% 1%
161 LIN Harrison 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
163 EGAN Edward L. 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 6% 1%
164 ZELIN Sam J. 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 8% 1%
165 NABAVI Matthew R. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 12%
165 GUPTA Karan 100% 99% 91% 65% 30% 8% 1%
167 PARKS Isaac 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
168 ECKEL Anson J. 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 53% 16%
168 FUSSMAN Yuval 100% 94% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
170 MARTINEZ Joshua 100% 99% 91% 69% 37% 12% 2%
171 JENNINGS Adin 100% 98% 88% 61% 28% 7% 1%
172 BARNETT Devin 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
173 REDDY Arya 100% 87% 51% 18% 3% - -
174 CORRALES Victor M. 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
175 DUAN eric 100% 98% 86% 56% 22% 4%
176 BEAUCHAMP Reilly E. 100% 97% 80% 47% 17% 3%
177 KERTESZ Stefan G. 100% 76% 35% 9% 1% -
178 SHULL Marc 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 1%
179 WEBB Jacob T. 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
180 FULLERTON Joshua D. 100% 89% 57% 23% 5% -
181 KOYFMAN Benjamin 100% 80% 40% 11% 2% -
182 ZHENG Jerry 100% 86% 49% 16% 2% -
183 MARRAN Erik R. 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 16%
184 PETERSON Matthew 100% 81% 42% 12% 2% -
185 WANG Albert 100% 96% 75% 38% 10% 1%
186 SUN Jeffery 100% 88% 54% 18% 3% -
187 PALAMARCHUK Matthew 100% 86% 53% 21% 5% 1% -
188 MITTLER Frederick 100% 47% 11% 1% - - -
189 VENET Téva 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 10% 1%
190 CHIMOSKEY Finn D. 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 6% 1%
191 MENDOZA Zander 100% 73% 33% 9% 1% - -
192 HINTON Nickolys R. 100% 95% 75% 42% 14% 3% -
193 KENT V David 100% 79% 40% 12% 2% - -
194 BELLIVEAU Emmett S. 100% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
195 VRAPI Dorian A. 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
196 MANAUGH Guy 100% 97% 82% 51% 21% 5% -
197 CHU Brandon A. 100% 82% 43% 13% 2% - -
198 TORRES Nicolas 100% 98% 88% 61% 28% 7% 1%
199 MIAO Kunqi 100% 75% 36% 10% 2% - -
200 KIM Jeff 100% 95% 73% 38% 13% 2% -
201 TAM Ethan 100% 92% 67% 33% 10% 2% -
201 STETSON Jahaan 100% 90% 60% 27% 7% 1% -
203 WILSON Benjamin H. 100% 76% 34% 9% 1% - -
204 KENT IV David 100% 94% 72% 38% 12% 2% -
204 TENHUNDFELD Jack 100% 76% 37% 11% 2% - -
206 SHETTY RIHAN 100% 83% 47% 17% 3% - -
207 HU Robert J. 100% 86% 53% 20% 4% - -
208 MING Nathan 100% 87% 52% 19% 4% - -
209 QUITORIANO Jonathan 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1%
210 BRADFORD Ethan 100% 53% 13% 2% - - -
211 VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas 100% 86% 49% 16% 2% -
212 KIM Dylan 100% 66% 23% 4% - -
213 JANYSKA Allen 100% 97% 82% 48% 17% 3% -
214 HICKIE Bryant 100% 86% 44% 12% 2% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.