January NAC

Div I Men's Épée

Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Kansas City Convention Center - Kansas City, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 XIAO Leon (Ruibo) - 5% 19% 32% 29% 13% 2%
2 RAMIREZ Yeisser - - 1% 11% 38% 50%
3 RODNEY Adam R. - - 1% 6% 24% 43% 26%
3 CHIRASHNYA Daniel - - - 1% 3% 10% 19% 25% 23% 14% 5% 1% -
5 SZAPARY Tristan B. - - - 3% 18% 45% 33%
6 WEISS Miles J. - 1% 8% 23% 34% 26% 8%
7 KNYSH Oleg - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 16%
8 NORTH Gary S. 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 12% 2%
9 SHAN Simon 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 6%
10 SANDERS Ian W. - 1% 7% 22% 36% 28% 7%
11 SCHUMACHER Cooper J. - - 2% 12% 31% 39% 16%
12 KUDRIAVTCEV Sergei - - - 2% 9% 21% 28% 24% 12% 4% 1% -
13 SMITH Nicholas S. - - 1% 3% 8% 17% 25% 24% 15% 6% 1% -
14 ZAGORUIKO Ivan - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
15 CANDELA Nicholas - - - - - 2% 7% 18% 29% 27% 14% 3%
16 KIM Benjamin I. - - - 2% 7% 15% 23% 24% 17% 8% 2% - -
17 ZHENG Andy - - - 1% 5% 14% 23% 26% 19% 9% 2% < 1%
18 KAULL James T. - - 1% 8% 24% 40% 27%
19 GAO Daniel - - - 1% 6% 14% 24% 26% 18% 8% 2% -
20 MATTIS George - - - - 2% 7% 17% 27% 26% 15% 5% 1% -
21 LIPPMAN Eli - - - 1% 4% 12% 22% 27% 21% 10% 2% -
22 ARAVIND Athreya - - 1% 6% 14% 23% 25% 18% 9% 3% - -
23 EWART Jr. Stephen P. - - - 5% 23% 46% 26%
24 WHITE Sean - - - 4% 20% 45% 31%
25 WHELAN Thomas (Tony) - 1% 9% 29% 40% 18% 2%
26 LANGE Henry C. - - - - 1% 3% 10% 21% 29% 24% 11% 2%
27 KIM Sullivan - - - 2% 9% 20% 27% 24% 13% 4% 1% -
28 BRISLAWN Reilly R. - - - - 2% 7% 16% 25% 25% 17% 7% 2% -
29 KNOX James - - 1% 3% 11% 21% 27% 22% 11% 3% 1% -
30 WILSON Brent (Brent Wilson) A. - - 2% 9% 18% 25% 23% 14% 6% 1% - -
31 LE BORGNE Matthieu - - 3% 10% 21% 26% 22% 12% 4% 1% - -
32 SILVERS Noah E. - 1% 7% 22% 34% 27% 9%
33 HADDAD Justin R. - - 1% 7% 23% 40% 29%
34 GRIFFITHS Ryan - - 4% 16% 34% 34% 12%
35 FRENCH Dylan - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
36 LIN Kyran - - 1% 6% 14% 23% 25% 19% 9% 3% 1% - -
37 BARG Jonathan - - 2% 6% 15% 23% 24% 18% 9% 3% 1% < 1% -
38 YOO Justin - - - 4% 22% 47% 26%
39 RUBIN Daniel - - 1% 6% 14% 24% 26% 18% 8% 2% - -
40 GORNOVSKY David J. - 1% 7% 21% 35% 28% 8%
41 FRAY Alexander - - - - 1% 5% 15% 26% 28% 17% 6% 1%
42 WU Joseph - - - 2% 6% 15% 23% 25% 18% 8% 2% - -
43 SHELANSKI Isaac - - - 1% 4% 12% 22% 27% 21% 10% 3% -
44 MACZIK Adam W. - 3% 14% 33% 33% 15% 2%
45 LEE Samuel Y. - 1% 7% 19% 27% 24% 14% 6% 1% - - -
46 LO Jake - - - 1% 5% 14% 26% 28% 18% 7% 1% -
47 YAMASAKI Kyle A. - - - 1% 3% 9% 18% 25% 23% 14% 5% 1% -
48 LAWSON Nicholas W. - - - 4% 18% 41% 37%
49 MITEV Alexander - 4% 13% 23% 26% 20% 10% 3% 1% - - - -
50 FEINBERG Gabriel M. - 1% 5% 23% 43% 29%
51 IVE Isaac L. - - - - - 1% 5% 14% 24% 27% 19% 7% 1%
52 GORIUNOV IVAN A. - - - - 2% 8% 18% 27% 25% 14% 4% -
53 LEE Stewart S. 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
54 SU Caleb - - 1% 4% 11% 21% 26% 21% 11% 4% 1% -
55 LONCAR Luka E. - - - 2% 8% 18% 26% 24% 14% 5% 1% -
56 ESKRIDGE Caleb 1% 5% 15% 26% 27% 17% 7% 2% - - -
57 MAO Benjamin - - 2% 7% 16% 24% 25% 17% 8% 2% - -
58 MAISONET-GUZMAN Hector E. - - - - 1% 7% 18% 29% 28% 14% 3%
59 HENSAL Nicolas A. - - 1% 3% 10% 20% 27% 23% 12% 4% 1%
60 KIM Nathan - - 1% 3% 9% 18% 26% 24% 14% 5% 1% -
61 CALDERON Diego - 2% 10% 25% 35% 23% 6%
62 SPIER Julian H. - - - 1% 4% 12% 22% 27% 21% 10% 2% -
63 PARK Ian C. - - - 2% 6% 15% 23% 25% 18% 8% 2% - -
64 ROMANOV Ethan - 4% 14% 26% 28% 18% 7% 2% - - - -
65 IARIKOV Nicholas - 1% 4% 13% 24% 27% 19% 9% 2% - -
66 SHIN Sungmoon (Andy) (Andy) - - - 2% 8% 19% 28% 25% 13% 4% -
67 BRODSKY Julian 2% 10% 24% 30% 21% 10% 3% 1% - - - -
68 SHARMA Sanil - - - 1% 4% 12% 24% 30% 21% 8% 1%
69 EMARA Omar 2% 13% 33% 35% 15% 2%
70 HEADRICK Lance - - 2% 8% 18% 26% 24% 15% 6% 1% - - -
71 SENNEWALD Frederick A. - - 2% 8% 18% 27% 25% 14% 5% 1% - -
72 HONDOR Robert D. - - - 2% 6% 14% 23% 26% 19% 8% 2% -
73 TRULL A.J. - 1% 4% 11% 21% 26% 21% 11% 4% 1% - - -
74 IVAKIMOV Vasil - - - 1% 6% 15% 26% 27% 17% 6% 1% -
75 ELLISON Harper F. - 2% 9% 22% 29% 23% 11% 3% 1% - - -
76 SETO Jing 1% 9% 22% 29% 23% 12% 4% 1% - - - - -
77 SHAH S Ayush - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 3%
78 FULLERTON Houston T. - - - 1% 3% 9% 19% 25% 23% 14% 5% 1% -
79 MILLER Jeffrey E. 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7% 1%
80 TREBON Hayden - - 2% 9% 19% 26% 23% 14% 5% 1% - -
81 YANG Boyan - 1% 4% 12% 22% 26% 20% 11% 4% 1% - - -
82 CHUNG Ethan Sheng Xuan - 2% 8% 18% 25% 23% 15% 7% 2% - - - -
83 LEE Daniel Y. - 3% 13% 31% 36% 16%
84 LAI Aedin - 2% 7% 18% 26% 25% 15% 6% 2% - - -
85 CANAUX Gabriel A. - - - - - - 2% 8% 22% 34% 26% 7%
86 ELHUSSEINI Dylan - 4% 14% 26% 27% 18% 7% 2% - - - -
87 LOMBARDO Theodore (Teddy) - < 1% 2% 9% 28% 40% 21%
88 SILVERS Ari - 1% 7% 17% 26% 25% 15% 6% 2% - - -
89 DAVOODIAN Christopher - - - 3% 8% 17% 24% 23% 16% 7% 2% - -
90 MURPHY Thomas P. - - - - 1% 5% 14% 24% 27% 18% 8% 2% -
91 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN - 2% 8% 19% 26% 23% 14% 6% 1% - - - -
92 SODERBERG Alex Z. - - 1% 3% 11% 21% 27% 22% 11% 3% 1% -
93 TIEN Jabin - 2% 9% 20% 27% 24% 13% 5% 1% - - -
94 SHCHUR Landon - 4% 13% 24% 27% 19% 9% 3% 1% - - -
95 SEEFELDT William Henry C. - 4% 17% 29% 27% 15% 5% 1% - - - -
96 PISKOVATSKOV Anton - - - 3% 15% 41% 41%
97 WANG justin 1% 9% 28% 36% 22% 5%
98 KHANNA Nikhil 1% 8% 27% 39% 21% 4%
99 ATKINS Levi H. 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
100 DHAL Leon 4% 19% 33% 28% 13% 3% -
101 TOLLEFSON Zachary 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
102 XU Timothy (Tingwei) - - 2% 14% 41% 42%
103 HE Patrick 3% 21% 38% 28% 9% 1%
104 FU Leon - 3% 18% 42% 32% 5%
105 SHEN Max - 9% 30% 38% 19% 3%
106 YUE Hongrui - 3% 16% 36% 34% 11%
107 CAO Brad 2% 14% 36% 37% 10% 1%
108 GANA Jr Jorge M. - 1% 6% 26% 43% 24%
109 LESCURE Dimitri 17% 41% 32% 9% 1% -
110 PRIHODKO Max - 3% 16% 34% 34% 13%
111 YU Austin 3% 21% 40% 28% 8% 1%
112 MUGA Boris - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 16%
113 HILBERT Xavier - - 1% 5% 21% 42% 31%
114 NEAL John P. - 5% 21% 36% 28% 9% 1%
115 KUGLER Luke 3% 17% 32% 30% 14% 4% -
116 DODIN David - 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2%
117 KIM Henry 15% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
118 PARK Nicholas 1% 10% 25% 33% 22% 8% 1%
119 SALLAM omar 1% 9% 25% 33% 23% 8% 1%
120 MENDOZA Zachari - 4% 19% 35% 30% 10% 1%
121 KATS Dylan G. - 2% 14% 35% 37% 12%
122 DOYON - VERDON William - 2% 13% 35% 37% 12%
123 YAO Geoffrey B. - 4% 21% 39% 29% 7%
124 KIM Sterling S. - 4% 17% 35% 33% 11%
125 MEINHOLD Li - 5% 21% 39% 29% 6%
126 WONG Baron 4% 27% 42% 23% 4% -
127 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 15% 37% 32% 13% 2% -
127 CHEN Leonardo 2% 15% 37% 33% 12% 1%
129 TIKHOMIROV Theodore 2% 16% 34% 32% 14% 2%
130 CHEN Brian 3% 19% 37% 29% 10% 1%
131 LEE Inwoo 26% 43% 24% 6% 1% -
131 WOLFE Alex 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 4%
131 BOUDREAUX James 5% 26% 39% 23% 6% -
134 LIU Yikun 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
134 PAN Tristan 4% 22% 37% 26% 9% 1% -
136 CHOI Kaiden I. 1% 9% 25% 33% 23% 8% 1%
137 SPROWLES Cameron D. - - 1% 8% 25% 41% 25%
138 FAN Jackson - 4% 17% 31% 30% 14% 3%
139 HILBERT Gabriel E. - 4% 15% 31% 31% 15% 3%
139 XIA Dashan 3% 15% 30% 31% 16% 4% -
141 SMITH Justin C. - 3% 14% 32% 33% 15% 2%
142 DIECK Logan O. - 1% 5% 19% 35% 31% 9%
143 PARKER Isaiah 5% 21% 33% 27% 11% 2% -
144 ISAAC Joseph - - 2% 16% 44% 38%
145 LINDBLOM Ian P. 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7%
146 LI Zachary 11% 34% 37% 16% 2% -
147 RICHARDS Jackson D. 9% 31% 37% 19% 4% -
148 NORMILE Nicholas 7% 28% 39% 21% 5% -
149 SONG Troy 8% 28% 37% 22% 5% -
150 KIM Teo 42% 42% 14% 2% - -
151 MORIN-JIANG Jake 31% 50% 17% 2% - -
152 MUNLIN Donovan - 1% 5% 18% 33% 31% 12%
153 BRUNET Nathan - - 4% 18% 36% 32% 9%
154 DESTEFANO Julius - 1% 7% 22% 34% 27% 9%
155 TANG William 7% 29% 37% 21% 6% 1% -
156 ZIEGLER John 17% 40% 30% 11% 2% - -
157 BENACK Steven M. - 1% 4% 18% 36% 33% 9%
158 SINGH Aryaman 19% 37% 29% 12% 3% - -
159 KHAYAT Ziad N. - < 1% 4% 19% 43% 35%
160 KROPP Jack - 1% 7% 24% 36% 25% 7%
161 LACROIX Floryan - 5% 19% 35% 30% 10%
162 LEE JoonWon 7% 28% 37% 22% 5% -
163 KOYFMAN Benjamin 19% 43% 29% 8% 1% -
164 LAVENSTEIN Kinley V. - 3% 17% 37% 33% 9%
165 MODANLOU Navid 30% 43% 22% 5% - -
166 WU Alistair 2% 25% 41% 25% 6% 1%
167 HAMZA Tudor - 2% 13% 36% 38% 11%
168 STEPHAN Jens - 1% 10% 30% 40% 19%
169 HU Lucas 17% 38% 31% 11% 2% -
170 HEDGES Philip S. - - 1% 7% 37% 55%
170 TABLEMAN Doug S. 2% 13% 34% 36% 14% 2%
172 HEIM Bryce 4% 22% 40% 27% 6% -
173 HE Zhiheng 3% 15% 32% 31% 15% 3% -
174 PARK Frederick 1% 9% 24% 34% 24% 7% 1%
175 HU Robert J. 1% 10% 29% 35% 20% 5% -
176 WANG Joey 4% 20% 33% 28% 12% 3% -
177 OBERDERFER Vladimir 10% 30% 34% 19% 6% 1% -
178 LAI Boden - 3% 12% 28% 33% 20% 5%
179 HRAPSKY Ryan J. - 1% 5% 17% 33% 32% 13%
180 KIM Jayden 2% 15% 33% 32% 15% 3% -
181 HICKS Zachary 4% 27% 42% 23% 4% -
182 WANG Daniel 8% 31% 39% 19% 4% -
183 SHEPARD Trevor S. 1% 9% 28% 38% 20% 3%
184 GUO Austin S. - 3% 15% 34% 35% 13%
185 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 8% 30% 39% 20% 3% -
186 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. - - 1% 12% 46% 40%
187 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 2% 17% 39% 33% 9% 1%
187 LIU Yueri 9% 34% 37% 17% 3% -
189 THAYER Jake T. - 1% 7% 30% 43% 19%
190 MIAO Quentin 19% 41% 30% 9% 1% -
191 WILLIAMS Logan 25% 45% 24% 5% 1% -
192 LIOU Solomon 1% 14% 43% 32% 9% 1%
193 ZHENG Jerry 10% 38% 38% 13% 1% -
193 LI Yunji (Rain) 17% 40% 31% 10% 1% -
195 MCDANIELS Jeremy - 1% 9% 30% 41% 18%
196 HEINS Dylan 4% 20% 37% 28% 10% 1%
197 XIAO Hanzhi （Shawn） 1% 10% 25% 33% 22% 7% 1%
198 AGGELER Donovan 16% 35% 31% 14% 3% - -
199 WU Jonathan 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 12% 2%
200 SIEDOW William 13% 34% 33% 16% 4% - -
201 PAYNE Massimo 15% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
202 GALLO James 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
202 HUANG Kenneth 7% 29% 37% 21% 5% 1% -
204 VUILLEMIN Gregoire 36% 42% 18% 4% - - -
205 LAM Alan 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2% -
206 ELHUSSEINI Kyle 2% 15% 33% 33% 14% 3% -
207 TUCKER Brad W. - 1% 5% 18% 35% 31% 10%
208 HABIB Farooq - - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
209 SINGH Ravin 12% 35% 35% 15% 3% -
210 ZHU Eric 28% 43% 23% 5% - -
211 AHMED Mohsen 8% 30% 37% 20% 5% -
212 KOEPPEL Levi E. 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
212 MUGA Aiden 21% 41% 29% 8% 1% -
214 KARNAS Karol - 3% 18% 42% 32% 5%
214 LUCERO-OLSON Aydin - 6% 22% 36% 27% 8%
214 DONG Haiyi(Leo) 40% 46% 13% 1% - -
217 DOUBOV Andrew 26% 43% 24% 6% 1% -
218 REDDY Arya 13% 40% 34% 11% 1% -
219 ALI Farhan 14% 38% 35% 12% 1% -
220 CHEN Zhengyang (Allen) 13% 38% 34% 12% 2% -
221 MILEY Walker 31% 42% 22% 5% 1% -
221 LIPPMAN Jake 7% 33% 40% 17% 2% -
223 HE Kaixuan 18% 40% 30% 10% 1% -
223 ASGARALLY Anthony 11% 37% 36% 14% 2% -
225 DJONOUMA Toyohm 14% 36% 33% 14% 2% -
226 MA Victor 4% 22% 39% 28% 6% -
227 SUVOROV Yuly 4% 20% 36% 28% 10% 1%
228 SAYLOR Harrison G. 10% 33% 37% 17% 3% -
228 GINZBURG Adam 7% 27% 38% 22% 6% 1%
230 COLEMAN Ian 39% 42% 16% 3% - -
230 MOLLINIER Angel 84% 15% 1% - - -
230 CHEN Leetyan 41% 42% 15% 2% - -
233 KENT V David 11% 34% 35% 16% 3% - -
234 FULLER George K. - 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 3%
234 STRAUSS Luke - 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 5%
236 CHIN Dylan A. 6% 23% 34% 25% 10% 2% -
237 DECKER Hunter 35% 41% 19% 5% 1% - -
237 DOYON - VERDON Gabriel 3% 17% 32% 30% 14% 4% -
239 WONG Maximus 28% 42% 23% 6% 1% - -
240 DUKO Phillip 32% 42% 21% 5% 1% - -
241 MANDOKI Sandor I. - < 1% 4% 17% 35% 32% 11%
242 TAMULONIS Fen C. 3% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2% -
243 CUMMINGS Kai 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
244 TIEMANN Landen 10% 30% 34% 19% 6% 1% -
245 WONG King-Yee 16% 36% 31% 14% 3% - -
246 BUCEVICIUS Alexander A. 14% 34% 33% 15% 3% - -
247 ERLIKHMAN Adrian 25% 43% 25% 6% 1% -
248 LEE Royce 43% 41% 14% 2% - -
249 O'DONNELL Benjamin 6% 27% 39% 23% 5% -
249 MARTINEZ Joshua 15% 39% 34% 11% 1% -
251 KIM Alexander 27% 43% 24% 6% 1% - -
251 JOHNSON Jay 6% 23% 34% 25% 9% 2% -
253 NAEMI Barsam 54% 36% 9% 1% - -
254 DISIMONE David Z. 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1%
254 FU Jason 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
256 LEE DoWon 42% 41% 15% 2% - -
256 CHEN Ryan 26% 45% 23% 5% - -
258 NOFZIGER Bennett 34% 42% 19% 4% - - -
259 MUENKE Magnus 47% 38% 12% 2% - -
260 GULLO Kenji Y. 3% 14% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
261 COHEN Jared E. 6% 25% 37% 24% 6% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.