January NAC

Div I Men's Épée

Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Kansas City Convention Center - Kansas City, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 XIAO Leon (Ruibo) 100% 100% 95% 76% 44% 15% 2%
2 RAMIREZ Yeisser 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 50%
3 RODNEY Adam R. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 26%
3 CHIRASHNYA Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 68% 43% 20% 6% 1% -
5 SZAPARY Tristan B. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 33%
6 WEISS Miles J. 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 8%
7 KNYSH Oleg 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
8 NORTH Gary S. 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 14% 2%
9 SHAN Simon 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 6%
10 SANDERS Ian W. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 34% 7%
11 SCHUMACHER Cooper J. 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 16%
12 KUDRIAVTCEV Sergei 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 68% 40% 16% 4% 1% -
13 SMITH Nicholas S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 71% 47% 23% 7% 1% -
14 ZAGORUIKO Ivan 100% 100% 99% 92% 72% 39% 10%
15 CANDELA Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 73% 44% 17% 3%
16 KIM Benjamin I. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 75% 52% 28% 11% 3% - -
17 ZHENG Andy 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 56% 30% 11% 2% < 1%
18 KAULL James T. 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 66% 27%
19 GAO Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 78% 54% 29% 10% 2% -
20 MATTIS George 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 74% 47% 21% 6% 1% -
21 LIPPMAN Eli 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 61% 34% 13% 3% -
22 ARAVIND Athreya 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 78% 55% 31% 12% 3% 1% -
23 EWART Jr. Stephen P. 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 72% 26%
24 WHITE Sean 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 31%
25 WHELAN Thomas (Tony) 100% 100% 99% 89% 60% 20% 2%
26 LANGE Henry C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 87% 66% 37% 13% 2%
27 KIM Sullivan 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 88% 69% 41% 17% 4% 1% -
28 BRISLAWN Reilly R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 74% 50% 25% 8% 2% -
29 KNOX James 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 64% 37% 15% 4% 1% -
30 WILSON Brent (Brent Wilson) A. 100% 100% 100% 97% 88% 70% 45% 21% 7% 2% - -
31 LE BORGNE Matthieu 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 65% 39% 17% 5% 1% - -
32 SILVERS Noah E. 100% 100% 99% 91% 70% 36% 9%
33 HADDAD Justin R. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 29%
34 GRIFFITHS Ryan 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
35 FRENCH Dylan 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 28%
36 LIN Kyran 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 56% 31% 12% 3% 1% - -
37 BARG Jonathan 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 77% 54% 30% 12% 3% 1% < 1% -
38 YOO Justin 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 73% 26%
39 RUBIN Daniel 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 78% 55% 29% 11% 2% - -
40 GORNOVSKY David J. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
41 FRAY Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 78% 52% 24% 7% 1%
42 WU Joseph 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 78% 54% 29% 11% 3% - -
43 SHELANSKI Isaac 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 84% 62% 35% 13% 3% -
44 MACZIK Adam W. 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 17% 2%
45 LEE Samuel Y. 100% 100% 98% 91% 73% 46% 21% 7% 2% - - -
46 LO Jake 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 80% 54% 26% 8% 1% -
47 YAMASAKI Kyle A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 69% 44% 21% 7% 1% -
48 LAWSON Nicholas W. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 37%
49 MITEV Alexander 100% 99% 96% 83% 60% 33% 14% 4% 1% - - - -
50 FEINBERG Gabriel M. 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 29%
51 IVE Isaac L. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 55% 28% 8% 1%
52 GORIUNOV IVAN A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 71% 43% 18% 4% -
53 LEE Stewart S. 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 3% -
54 SU Caleb 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 84% 63% 37% 15% 4% 1% -
55 LONCAR Luka E. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 89% 71% 45% 21% 7% 1% -
56 ESKRIDGE Caleb 100% 99% 95% 79% 53% 26% 9% 2% - - -
57 MAO Benjamin 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 76% 52% 27% 10% 3% - -
58 MAISONET-GUZMAN Hector E. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 74% 45% 17% 3%
59 HENSAL Nicolas A. 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 86% 67% 40% 17% 4% 1%
60 KIM Nathan 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 88% 70% 44% 20% 6% 1% -
61 CALDERON Diego 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 28% 6%
62 SPIER Julian H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 61% 33% 12% 3% -
63 PARK Ian C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 54% 29% 11% 3% - -
64 ROMANOV Ethan 100% 100% 96% 81% 55% 28% 10% 2% - - - -
65 IARIKOV Nicholas 100% 100% 99% 95% 81% 57% 30% 11% 3% - -
66 SHIN Sungmoon (Andy) (Andy) 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 71% 42% 17% 4% -
67 BRODSKY Julian 100% 98% 88% 64% 34% 13% 3% 1% - - - -
68 SHARMA Sanil 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 84% 60% 31% 9% 1%
69 EMARA Omar 100% 98% 85% 52% 17% 2%
70 HEADRICK Lance 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 72% 46% 22% 7% 2% - - -
71 SENNEWALD Frederick A. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 72% 45% 20% 6% 1% - -
72 HONDOR Robert D. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 55% 30% 11% 2% -
73 TRULL A.J. 100% 100% 99% 95% 84% 63% 38% 17% 5% 1% - - -
74 IVAKIMOV Vasil 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 78% 52% 25% 7% 1% -
75 ELLISON Harper F. 100% 100% 98% 89% 68% 38% 15% 4% 1% - - -
76 SETO Jing 100% 99% 90% 68% 39% 17% 5% 1% - - - - -
77 SHAH S Ayush 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 3%
78 FULLERTON Houston T. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 87% 68% 43% 20% 6% 1% -
79 MILLER Jeffrey E. 100% 99% 94% 72% 35% 8% 1%
80 TREBON Hayden 100% 100% 100% 97% 89% 70% 44% 20% 7% 1% - -
81 YANG Boyan 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 61% 36% 16% 5% 1% - - -
82 CHUNG Ethan Sheng Xuan 100% 100% 98% 90% 72% 47% 24% 9% 2% - - - -
83 LEE Daniel Y. 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
84 LAI Aedin 100% 100% 98% 91% 74% 47% 23% 8% 2% - - -
85 CANAUX Gabriel A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 68% 34% 7%
86 ELHUSSEINI Dylan 100% 100% 95% 81% 55% 28% 10% 2% - - - -
87 LOMBARDO Theodore (Teddy) 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 21%
88 SILVERS Ari 100% 100% 98% 92% 74% 48% 23% 8% 2% - - -
89 DAVOODIAN Christopher 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 72% 48% 25% 9% 2% - -
90 MURPHY Thomas P. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 93% 79% 54% 28% 9% 2% -
91 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 100% 100% 98% 90% 71% 45% 22% 7% 2% - - - -
92 SODERBERG Alex Z. 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 64% 37% 15% 4% 1% -
93 TIEN Jabin 100% 100% 98% 89% 69% 42% 19% 6% 1% - - -
94 SHCHUR Landon 100% 100% 96% 83% 59% 32% 12% 3% 1% - - -
95 SEEFELDT William Henry C. 100% 100% 96% 79% 49% 22% 7% 1% - - - -
96 PISKOVATSKOV Anton 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 41%
97 WANG justin 100% 99% 90% 62% 26% 5%
98 KHANNA Nikhil 100% 99% 91% 64% 25% 4%
99 ATKINS Levi H. 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 2% -
100 DHAL Leon 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
101 TOLLEFSON Zachary 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
102 XU Timothy (Tingwei) 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 42%
103 HE Patrick 100% 97% 76% 38% 10% 1%
104 FU Leon 100% 100% 97% 79% 37% 5%
105 SHEN Max 100% 100% 91% 60% 23% 3%
106 YUE Hongrui 100% 100% 97% 81% 46% 11%
107 CAO Brad 100% 98% 84% 48% 11% 1%
108 GANA Jr Jorge M. 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 24%
109 LESCURE Dimitri 100% 83% 42% 10% 1% -
110 PRIHODKO Max 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 13%
111 YU Austin 100% 97% 76% 36% 8% 1%
112 MUGA Boris 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 16%
113 HILBERT Xavier 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 74% 31%
114 NEAL John P. 100% 100% 94% 74% 38% 10% 1%
115 KUGLER Luke 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
116 DODIN David 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 17% 2%
117 KIM Henry 100% 85% 49% 17% 3% - -
118 PARK Nicholas 100% 99% 89% 63% 31% 9% 1%
119 SALLAM omar 100% 99% 89% 64% 31% 9% 1%
120 MENDOZA Zachari 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 11% 1%
121 KATS Dylan G. 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 12%
122 DOYON - VERDON William 100% 100% 98% 84% 50% 12%
123 YAO Geoffrey B. 100% 100% 96% 75% 36% 7%
124 KIM Sterling S. 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 11%
125 MEINHOLD Li 100% 100% 95% 74% 35% 6%
126 WONG Baron 100% 96% 69% 27% 4% -
127 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 100% 85% 47% 15% 3% -
127 CHEN Leonardo 100% 98% 83% 46% 13% 1%
129 TIKHOMIROV Theodore 100% 98% 82% 48% 16% 2%
130 CHEN Brian 100% 97% 78% 41% 11% 1%
131 LEE Inwoo 100% 74% 31% 7% 1% -
131 WOLFE Alex 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 4%
131 BOUDREAUX James 100% 95% 68% 29% 6% -
134 LIU Yikun 100% 96% 78% 45% 17% 3% -
134 PAN Tristan 100% 96% 73% 36% 10% 2% -
136 CHOI Kaiden I. 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 9% 1%
137 SPROWLES Cameron D. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
138 FAN Jackson 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 17% 3%
139 HILBERT Gabriel E. 100% 100% 96% 80% 50% 18% 3%
139 XIA Dashan 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 5% -
141 SMITH Justin C. 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 18% 2%
142 DIECK Logan O. 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 9%
143 PARKER Isaiah 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 3% -
144 ISAAC Joseph 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 38%
145 LINDBLOM Ian P. 100% 99% 93% 70% 33% 7%
146 LI Zachary 100% 89% 56% 18% 2% -
147 RICHARDS Jackson D. 100% 91% 60% 23% 5% -
148 NORMILE Nicholas 100% 93% 65% 27% 5% -
149 SONG Troy 100% 92% 65% 28% 6% -
150 KIM Teo 100% 58% 16% 2% - -
151 MORIN-JIANG Jake 100% 69% 19% 2% - -
152 MUNLIN Donovan 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 12%
153 BRUNET Nathan 100% 100% 100% 95% 77% 41% 9%
154 DESTEFANO Julius 100% 100% 99% 91% 70% 36% 9%
155 TANG William 100% 93% 64% 27% 7% 1% -
156 ZIEGLER John 100% 83% 43% 13% 2% - -
157 BENACK Steven M. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 42% 9%
158 SINGH Aryaman 100% 81% 43% 14% 3% - -
159 KHAYAT Ziad N. 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 35%
160 KROPP Jack 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 7%
161 LACROIX Floryan 100% 100% 95% 76% 40% 10%
162 LEE JoonWon 100% 93% 65% 28% 6% -
163 KOYFMAN Benjamin 100% 81% 38% 9% 1% -
164 LAVENSTEIN Kinley V. 100% 100% 97% 80% 43% 9%
165 MODANLOU Navid 100% 70% 28% 6% 1% -
166 WU Alistair 100% 98% 73% 32% 7% 1%
167 HAMZA Tudor 100% 100% 98% 85% 49% 11%
168 STEPHAN Jens 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 19%
169 HU Lucas 100% 83% 44% 13% 2% -
170 HEDGES Philip S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 55%
170 TABLEMAN Doug S. 100% 98% 86% 52% 15% 2%
172 HEIM Bryce 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% -
173 HE Zhiheng 100% 97% 82% 50% 19% 4% -
174 PARK Frederick 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 8% 1%
175 HU Robert J. 100% 99% 89% 60% 25% 5% -
176 WANG Joey 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 3% -
177 OBERDERFER Vladimir 100% 90% 60% 26% 6% 1% -
178 LAI Boden 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 24% 5%
179 HRAPSKY Ryan J. 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 13%
180 KIM Jayden 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 3% -
181 HICKS Zachary 100% 96% 69% 27% 4% -
182 WANG Daniel 100% 92% 62% 23% 4% -
183 SHEPARD Trevor S. 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 3%
184 GUO Austin S. 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
185 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 100% 92% 62% 24% 4% -
186 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. 100% 100% 100% 99% 86% 40%
187 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 100% 98% 82% 42% 9% 1%
187 LIU Yueri 100% 91% 57% 21% 4% -
189 THAYER Jake T. 100% 100% 99% 92% 62% 19%
190 MIAO Quentin 100% 81% 40% 11% 1% -
191 WILLIAMS Logan 100% 75% 30% 6% 1% -
192 LIOU Solomon 100% 99% 85% 42% 10% 1%
193 ZHENG Jerry 100% 90% 52% 14% 2% -
193 LI Yunji (Rain) 100% 83% 42% 12% 2% -
195 MCDANIELS Jeremy 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 18%
196 HEINS Dylan 100% 96% 76% 39% 11% 1%
197 XIAO Hanzhi (Shawn) 100% 99% 89% 64% 31% 8% 1%
198 AGGELER Donovan 100% 84% 49% 18% 4% - -
199 WU Jonathan 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 15% 2%
200 SIEDOW William 100% 88% 55% 21% 5% 1% -
201 PAYNE Massimo 100% 85% 51% 19% 4% - -
202 GALLO James 100% 95% 75% 40% 13% 2% -
202 HUANG Kenneth 100% 93% 63% 27% 6% 1% -
204 VUILLEMIN Gregoire 100% 64% 22% 4% - - -
205 LAM Alan 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 2% -
206 ELHUSSEINI Kyle 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 3% -
207 TUCKER Brad W. 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 42% 10%
208 HABIB Farooq 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 23%
209 SINGH Ravin 100% 88% 53% 18% 3% -
210 ZHU Eric 100% 72% 29% 6% - -
211 AHMED Mohsen 100% 92% 62% 26% 5% -
212 KOEPPEL Levi E. 100% 77% 36% 9% 1% -
212 MUGA Aiden 100% 79% 38% 9% 1% -
214 KARNAS Karol 100% 100% 97% 79% 37% 5%
214 LUCERO-OLSON Aydin 100% 100% 93% 71% 35% 8%
214 DONG Haiyi(Leo) 100% 60% 14% 1% - -
217 DOUBOV Andrew 100% 74% 31% 7% 1% -
218 REDDY Arya 100% 87% 47% 13% 2% -
219 ALI Farhan 100% 86% 48% 13% 1% -
220 CHEN Zhengyang (Allen) 100% 87% 48% 14% 2% -
221 MILEY Walker 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% -
221 LIPPMAN Jake 100% 93% 60% 19% 3% -
223 HE Kaixuan 100% 82% 42% 11% 1% -
223 ASGARALLY Anthony 100% 89% 52% 16% 3% -
225 DJONOUMA Toyohm 100% 86% 50% 16% 2% -
226 MA Victor 100% 96% 73% 34% 7% -
227 SUVOROV Yuly 100% 96% 75% 39% 11% 1%
228 SAYLOR Harrison G. 100% 90% 57% 20% 3% -
228 GINZBURG Adam 100% 93% 66% 29% 6% 1%
230 COLEMAN Ian 100% 61% 19% 3% - -
230 MOLLINIER Angel 100% 16% 1% - - -
230 CHEN Leetyan 100% 59% 17% 2% - -
233 KENT V David 100% 89% 55% 19% 4% - -
234 FULLER George K. 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 19% 3%
234 STRAUSS Luke 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 26% 5%
236 CHIN Dylan A. 100% 94% 72% 38% 12% 2% -
237 DECKER Hunter 100% 65% 24% 5% 1% - -
237 DOYON - VERDON Gabriel 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
239 WONG Maximus 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% - -
240 DUKO Phillip 100% 68% 26% 5% 1% - -
241 MANDOKI Sandor I. 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 44% 11%
242 TAMULONIS Fen C. 100% 97% 79% 44% 14% 2% -
243 CUMMINGS Kai 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
244 TIEMANN Landen 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
245 WONG King-Yee 100% 84% 48% 17% 4% - -
246 BUCEVICIUS Alexander A. 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% - -
247 ERLIKHMAN Adrian 100% 75% 32% 7% 1% -
248 LEE Royce 100% 57% 16% 2% - -
249 O'DONNELL Benjamin 100% 94% 67% 28% 6% -
249 MARTINEZ Joshua 100% 85% 45% 12% 1% -
251 KIM Alexander 100% 73% 30% 7% 1% - -
251 JOHNSON Jay 100% 94% 71% 36% 11% 2% -
253 NAEMI Barsam 100% 46% 9% 1% - -
254 DISIMONE David Z. 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 5% 1%
254 FU Jason 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
256 LEE DoWon 100% 58% 17% 2% - -
256 CHEN Ryan 100% 74% 29% 5% - -
258 NOFZIGER Bennett 100% 66% 24% 4% - - -
259 MUENKE Magnus 100% 53% 14% 2% - -
260 GULLO Kenji Y. 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
261 COHEN Jared E. 100% 94% 69% 31% 7% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.