Division 1 & Para Championships / April NAC

Div I Men's Épée

Monday, April 27, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 WIMMER Nathaniel P. - - 1% 9% 28% 41% 21%
2 KNYSH Oleg - - - - 3% 22% 75%
3 LIOZNYANSKY Simon - - - 2% 15% 42% 40%
3 CHIRASHNYA Daniel - 1% 9% 29% 42% 19%
5 BARG Jonathan - 2% 18% 40% 32% 8%
6 IMREK Elijah S. - - 1% 9% 30% 43% 17%
7 LANGE Henry C. - - 4% 16% 35% 34% 11%
8 ROSE-JONES Simon - 1% 8% 31% 43% 17%
9 SIMMONS Ariel (Ari) J. - - - - 3% 24% 73%
10 WU Jonathan - - 4% 16% 34% 34% 12%
11 IYOKI Kent - - 3% 16% 41% 40%
12 GINZBURG Adam - 4% 19% 38% 30% 8% 1%
13 SVERDLOV Seth 1% 6% 23% 36% 26% 7% -
14 SODERBERG Alex Z. - 1% 6% 20% 36% 29% 9%
15 LAI Boden 1% 6% 21% 36% 27% 8% 1%
16 CHOI Zachary 3% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2%
17 YOO Justin - - - - 6% 33% 61%
18 RIGGINS Joshua 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 9% 1%
19 KNOX James - - 2% 11% 31% 39% 18%
20 IMREK Samuel A. - - - 1% 11% 44% 44%
21 BEZRODNOV Michael - - 1% 9% 30% 42% 18%
22 FRAY Alexander - - - 4% 30% 66%
23 SMOAK Omari Z. - - 6% 30% 48% 15%
24 DAVOODIAN Christopher - 4% 25% 47% 22% 3%
25 ESKRIDGE Caleb - - 2% 9% 27% 40% 22%
26 ERLIKHMAN Adrian 3% 18% 36% 29% 12% 2% -
27 ELHUSSEINI Kyle 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 3% -
28 LO Jake - 4% 20% 41% 29% 6%
29 MILLER Jeffrey E. - - 4% 18% 39% 34% 5%
30 MEHROTRA Neel 11% 32% 36% 17% 4% - -
31 DODIN David - 2% 13% 34% 36% 13% 2%
32 DHAL Leon 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 3% -
33 CLICK Aiden - - 2% 13% 35% 38% 12%
34 IVE Isaac L. - 1% 8% 30% 42% 19%
35 SCHUMACHER Cooper J. - - 1% 8% 26% 41% 24%
36 XIA Dashan - 3% 16% 33% 33% 14% 1%
37 SANDERS Ian W. - - 1% 9% 28% 41% 21%
38 MANN Jake R. - - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
39 KATS Dylan G. - 1% 7% 23% 36% 27% 7%
40 BRISLAWN Reilly R. - - 1% 5% 22% 42% 30%
41 NORMILE Nicholas 5% 25% 43% 22% 4% -
42 CHEN Brian - 7% 33% 39% 18% 3%
43 WEISS Miles J. - - 3% 15% 41% 41%
44 CARRIER Gabriel A. - - 5% 22% 44% 29%
45 KAULL James T. - - 1% 10% 38% 50%
46 LIN Kyran - - 4% 18% 36% 32% 9%
47 NORTH Gary S. - - - 4% 22% 44% 29%
48 BRODSKY Julian - 5% 19% 35% 29% 10% 1%
49 HILBERT Gabriel E. - 1% 9% 31% 43% 15% 1%
50 GYURE Brayden H. - 1% 9% 31% 39% 17% 2%
51 KARIMOV Amir 7% 29% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
52 YAO Geoffrey B. - 1% 6% 21% 36% 29% 8%
53 BRADSHAW Carter 16% 41% 32% 10% 1% - -
54 MOORE Shomari A. - - 3% 20% 45% 31%
55 TAFOYA Devin D. - - 3% 19% 43% 34%
56 ROGAK Benjamin A. - 3% 17% 39% 34% 7%
57 IARIKOV Nicholas 1% 12% 33% 35% 16% 2%
58 LEE Inwoo 13% 33% 33% 17% 4% 1% -
59 CHEN Leonardo 1% 6% 21% 36% 28% 8% -
60 SZAPARY Tristan B. - - - < 1% 4% 27% 69%
61 LE BORGNE Matthieu - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
62 DIECK Logan O. 1% 11% 35% 36% 15% 2%
63 BUI Henry 19% 48% 27% 6% 1% -
64 ROSADO Balthazar Francisco 51% 37% 10% 1% - -
65 MATTIS George - 1% 7% 24% 36% 25% 7%
66 SU Caleb - 1% 10% 30% 40% 17% 2%
67 HILBERT Xavier - - 1% 7% 28% 45% 19%
68 FEINBERG Gabriel M. - - - 1% 8% 37% 54%
68 SENNEWALD James J. - - - 4% 19% 42% 34%
68 HEADRICK Lance - 3% 16% 36% 32% 11% 1%
71 MAO Benjamin - - 1% 10% 33% 44% 12%
72 WANG justin - 5% 19% 34% 29% 11% 1%
73 WANG Joey 1% 8% 30% 40% 18% 2%
74 FU Leon 1% 12% 33% 35% 16% 2%
75 TSE Maxwell 4% 25% 41% 24% 5% -
76 HONDOR Robert D. - 4% 23% 40% 26% 6%
77 WOLFE Alex - 1% 9% 33% 47% 10%
78 KRAFT Dennis A. - - - 3% 18% 44% 35%
78 KUSHNERIK Ethan - - - 2% 19% 51% 27%
80 GRIFFITHS Ryan - - - 2% 15% 43% 39%
81 KHAYAT Ziad N. - - 1% 10% 31% 42% 16%
82 EWART Jr. Stephen P. - - - 3% 18% 46% 32%
82 LIU Adam 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1% -
84 ARAVIND Athreya 1% 6% 20% 34% 28% 10% 1%
85 LI Yunji (Rain) 16% 39% 32% 11% 2% - -
86 KIM Jayden 19% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
87 LAM Alan 1% 6% 21% 35% 28% 9% -
88 TRULL A.J. 4% 20% 36% 29% 10% 1%
89 MACARTY Jordan T. - 7% 25% 38% 25% 5%
90 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 2% 15% 35% 34% 13% 1%
91 KHANNA Nikhil 1% 14% 45% 32% 7% -
91 CHEN YiHeng 21% 40% 28% 9% 1% -
93 DAVIDENKO Alexander 5% 25% 39% 25% 6% 1%
94 SPIER Julian H. - - 5% 25% 46% 24%
94 WU Alistair 4% 22% 38% 27% 8% 1%
96 TOYOFUKU Ethan 30% 45% 21% 4% - -
97 SOKOL Luke 7% 27% 38% 22% 5% -
98 FULLERTON Houston T. 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 5%
99 CALDERON Diego - - 1% 6% 22% 41% 30%
100 LEE Samuel Y. - 2% 11% 33% 38% 15% 2%
101 GORIUNOV IVAN A. - 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 4%
102 CLICK Tristan 1% 6% 23% 39% 25% 6% -
103 MITEV Alexander 1% 6% 22% 35% 26% 9% 1%
104 STRONG Sean T. - - - 3% 18% 43% 35%
105 LI Tristan 18% 38% 30% 12% 2% - -
106 LATIF IMRAN ZAKARIYYA - 2% 10% 27% 35% 21% 5%
106 ATKINS Levi H. - 3% 18% 39% 31% 9% 1%
108 TIKHONOV Daniel 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 4% -
109 ZHENG Andy - - 3% 13% 32% 36% 16%
110 DOUBOV Andrew 1% 11% 29% 35% 20% 4% -
111 ELHUSSEINI Dylan 1% 7% 22% 35% 26% 8% 1%
112 HUANG Kenneth 2% 15% 37% 35% 10% 1%
113 RODNEY Adam R. - - < 1% 3% 25% 71%
114 KOKENGE Reid - 5% 23% 41% 26% 4%
115 MARAKOV Allen B. - 1% 7% 27% 43% 23%
116 TSINIS Alexander E. - - < 1% 7% 38% 54%
117 MUENKE Magnus 17% 54% 25% 4% - -
118 ZIEGLER John 8% 29% 37% 21% 5% -
119 ACAR Devin 21% 44% 27% 7% 1% -
120 ROMANOV Ethan 1% 7% 25% 37% 24% 6% -
121 DESTEFANO Julius - 2% 10% 28% 36% 20% 4%
122 MUGA Boris - 2% 11% 28% 35% 20% 4%
123 HAMZA Tudor - 1% 8% 24% 37% 25% 6%
124 MACZIK Adam W. - - 3% 15% 37% 38% 8%
125 O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar 34% 42% 19% 4% - - -
126 BORISENKO Samuel 1% 5% 20% 34% 29% 11% 1%
127 AHMED Mohsen 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3% -
128 KARNAS Karol 1% 7% 24% 35% 24% 8% 1%
129 SONG Troy 1% 10% 29% 38% 20% 2%
130 JAIN Samyak 3% 20% 41% 29% 7% 1%
131 PISKOVATSKOV Anton - - - 4% 23% 46% 26%
132 KIM Sullivan - 1% 8% 26% 39% 22% 4%
132 LU Jacob 5% 22% 35% 27% 10% 2% -
134 ROBINSON Samuel 2% 14% 31% 32% 17% 4% -
135 ZAYDMAN Ethan - 5% 19% 34% 30% 10% 1%
136 SAUNIER Cameron 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 3% -
136 GAO Daniel - - 2% 12% 31% 37% 17%
138 SINGLETON Aman 25% 40% 26% 8% 1% - -
139 LIU Yueri 3% 17% 34% 30% 13% 2% -
140 JOHNSON Ryder 3% 17% 33% 30% 14% 3% -
141 CHEN Edward 10% 30% 34% 20% 6% 1% -
142 MIDYANY Evan 16% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
142 MORIN-JIANG Jake 15% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
144 CORBIN Bennett 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
145 PARK Sangwook 6% 28% 37% 21% 6% 1% -
146 HU Robert J. 1% 12% 38% 35% 12% 2% -
147 LEE DoWon 10% 32% 36% 17% 4% - -
148 TAI Edison 1% 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 1%
149 WANG Marcus 23% 44% 26% 6% - - -
150 PARKER Isaiah 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
151 ALI Farhan 8% 30% 39% 19% 4% - -
152 LEE Aiden 6% 26% 38% 23% 6% 1% -
153 LI Jade 23% 45% 26% 6% - -
154 ZHANG Lucas 32% 44% 21% 4% - -
154 GRAVES Lawson 10% 36% 37% 15% 2% -
156 MCDANIELS Jeremy - 2% 17% 39% 33% 9%
157 LIVERANT Skyler J. - - 3% 19% 45% 33%
157 LIDSKY Phineas 5% 26% 41% 24% 4% -
159 WU Steven 2% 13% 33% 35% 15% 3% -
159 CHEN Zhengyang (Allen) 2% 15% 33% 32% 15% 3% -
159 PARKE Nathaniel 20% 39% 29% 10% 2% - -
162 JEYOON Ryan S. 1% 8% 26% 36% 23% 6% 1%
163 GUMEDELLI Mohnish 5% 26% 41% 23% 5% - -
164 KRISHNAN Skanda 6% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
165 YANG Gary 17% 38% 32% 12% 2% - -
166 MIDYANY Ryan 23% 42% 26% 7% 1% - -
167 GLUSHKOV David 22% 43% 27% 7% 1% - -
167 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
169 VOO Lucas 16% 40% 32% 10% 1% - -
170 MODANLOU Navid 7% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
171 KUGLER Luke 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
172 MIAO Quentin K. 4% 19% 35% 30% 11% 2% -
173 VYSOTSKIY Evan 12% 35% 36% 14% 2% - -
174 LASIYCHUK Nikita 4% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1% -
175 CHEN Jayden 13% 39% 35% 12% 1% -
176 SINGH Ravin 19% 39% 30% 10% 2% -
177 LIOZNYANSKY Miron 6% 25% 38% 24% 6% -
178 BAGDONAS Olivier 40% 42% 16% 3% - -
179 HELMY Richard 55% 38% 7% - - -
180 LI Timothy 23% 40% 27% 9% 1% - -
181 YI Nathan 15% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
182 DURKIN Hudson 30% 41% 22% 6% 1% - -
182 KIM Henry 5% 27% 40% 22% 5% 1% -
184 SENNEWALD Frederick A. - 1% 8% 29% 39% 20% 3%
185 KIM Gene 5% 24% 38% 26% 7% 1% -
186 DODIN Daniel M. 15% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
186 TANG William 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 7% 1%
188 JONES Reilly 1% 9% 31% 40% 17% 2% -
189 TRAN Spencer 5% 22% 36% 27% 10% 1% -
190 LEE Stewart S. 1% 8% 25% 35% 24% 7% -
191 LEE Aiden 3% 18% 36% 30% 11% 2% -
191 BAJAJ Nakul 14% 39% 34% 11% 2% - -
193 LOISEAU Oscar 4% 21% 35% 28% 10% 2% -
194 DURKIN Tristan E. 17% 38% 31% 12% 2% - -
195 HERNDON Liam 17% 40% 32% 10% 1% - -
196 AYOTTE James 21% 50% 24% 4% - - -
197 JEONG Arisu 15% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
198 PIVOVAROV Lucas 24% 42% 26% 7% 1% - -
199 KIM Ian 32% 44% 20% 4% - - -
200 LI Jesse 1% 11% 30% 35% 19% 4% -
201 LEE JoonWon 3% 18% 37% 31% 10% 1%
202 CAFASSO Alexander 62% 34% 4% - - -
203 NAKAS Levent 10% 31% 35% 18% 5% 1% -
204 FU Nolan 28% 44% 23% 5% - - -
205 CHEW Aedan 45% 41% 13% 2% - -
206 WU Johnny y. 31% 43% 22% 5% - - -
207 SHCHUR Grayson 20% 53% 23% 4% - -
208 WONG King-Yee 46% 41% 11% 1% - -
209 DECKER Hunter 46% 40% 12% 2% - - -
210 SUH Aiden 18% 39% 30% 10% 2% - -
211 CUELLAR Markus 31% 45% 20% 3% - -
212 PETINO Leonardo 50% 41% 8% 1% - - -
213 SEEFELDT Henry C. 4% 24% 39% 25% 7% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.