National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div I-A Men's Épée

Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GORIUNOV IVAN A. - - 6% 24% 39% 25% 6%
2 RODNEY Adam R. - - - - 2% 19% 80%
3 FULLERTON Houston T. - - 1% 7% 23% 40% 29%
3 RICHARD Owen 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
5 EVERS Gabriel 4% 20% 36% 29% 10% 1%
6 HE Lawrence 1% 6% 21% 36% 28% 8%
7 GAO Daniel - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
8 KIM Benjamin I. - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
9 MOSES Alexander - - 1% 8% 27% 42% 21%
10 MCGAW Julian E. - - 1% 8% 28% 43% 20%
11 KIM Dylan J. 1% 5% 20% 35% 29% 10%
12 SEEFELDT William Henry C. - 5% 17% 31% 30% 14% 2%
13 GOHEL Dayus T. - - 1% 8% 25% 41% 25%
14 KARNAS Karol 2% 13% 31% 34% 16% 3% -
15 BOYCE Samuel H. - 1% 5% 22% 42% 30%
16 WU Jonathan 1% 5% 20% 35% 30% 10%
17 KUMAR Aidan 1% 8% 23% 33% 25% 9% 1%
18 NOWAK Jakub P. - - 3% 16% 40% 40%
19 WU Byron - 1% 10% 30% 40% 19%
20 NORBUTAS Jackson S. - - 2% 11% 29% 38% 19%
21 ZHENG Haoran - 2% 10% 29% 38% 19% 1%
22 WILSON Brent (Brent Wilson) A. - - 4% 16% 33% 33% 13%
23 ZUCKER Noah L. - - 1% 8% 27% 42% 22%
24 THOMAS Harris 4% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2%
25 MURPHY Thomas P. 1% 5% 20% 35% 30% 10%
26 JIN Owen - 1% 4% 16% 32% 33% 14%
27 CUMMINGS Atticus C. - - 3% 12% 29% 37% 19%
28 GARRISON Cameron - 2% 10% 26% 34% 22% 6%
29 PRIHODKO Max - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
30 JIN Daniel 1% 7% 23% 36% 27% 7%
31 WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N. - - 1% 7% 25% 41% 26%
32 CHOI Isaac 1% 12% 34% 38% 14%
33 LEE Seungwon - 2% 11% 26% 33% 22% 6%
34 HURME Tommi K. - - 2% 14% 40% 44%
35 MICKO Fritz K. - 4% 17% 35% 32% 11% 1%
36 YAMASAKI Kyle A. - - 3% 17% 37% 32% 10%
36 HIGGINS Branford 1% 7% 20% 32% 27% 11% 2%
38 NORTH Alexander M. - 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4%
39 ZHANG Shawn 1% 30% 41% 21% 5% 1% -
40 BRISLAWN Reilly R. - - 4% 15% 32% 34% 14%
41 JONES Simon A. - - 1% 5% 22% 44% 29%
41 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2%
43 CHIRASHNYA Adam 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
44 PARK Frederick - 4% 17% 32% 30% 14% 2%
45 MADSEN Jr Eric W. 1% 8% 26% 38% 23% 5%
46 BANKULLA Nihal R. 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
47 GALLO James 1% 7% 25% 38% 24% 4%
48 VEZMAR Evan H. 5% 22% 35% 27% 10% 1%
49 SODERBERG Alex Z. - - 4% 20% 42% 34%
50 TREBON Hayden - 4% 20% 38% 30% 7%
51 RICHARDS Jackson D. 13% 38% 35% 13% 2%
52 FULLER George K. - 1% 6% 21% 35% 28% 8%
53 KNOX James - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
53 MCDANIELS Jeremy - - 2% 12% 31% 38% 17%
55 SNELL James E. - 4% 16% 30% 31% 16% 3%
56 NIKOLOV Peter 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2%
57 ZAYDMAN David M. 1% 6% 20% 32% 28% 12% 2%
58 NGUYEN Tate - 2% 11% 28% 35% 20% 4%
59 COLLYMORE Spencer T. - 1% 9% 28% 41% 20%
60 ZHAO Luhan - 2% 14% 35% 36% 13%
61 LEE Noah - 6% 26% 37% 23% 6% 1%
62 SKAALAND Will 7% 27% 36% 23% 6% 1%
63 KROPP Jack - 1% 5% 19% 35% 31% 10%
64 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 15% 34% 31% 15% 4% 1% -
65 PARK Elliot 2% 13% 30% 34% 18% 4%
66 WU Joseph - 1% 4% 17% 34% 33% 11%
67 MAO Benjamin 5% 23% 35% 26% 9% 2% -
68 CARRIER Gabriel A. - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
69 SUVOROV Yuly - 4% 17% 32% 30% 14% 2%
70 MCALISTER Ian 2% 11% 27% 32% 20% 6% 1%
70 MODULLA Yathin R. 2% 13% 29% 33% 18% 5% -
72 KOPPE Alexander 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
73 ROSTAL Scott E. - 2% 10% 29% 40% 19%
74 PINERO Jose J. 4% 18% 34% 31% 12% 2%
75 LIN Harrison 13% 34% 33% 16% 4% -
76 BHATNAGAR Ayan - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
76 CHEN Bailey 28% 41% 23% 6% 1% -
78 LI Patrick 1% 10% 31% 40% 18%
79 LOWE-THORPE Tyler 1% 6% 21% 33% 27% 11% 2%
80 MUNLIN Donovan - - 5% 20% 36% 30% 9%
81 KHANNA Nikhil 1% 7% 22% 33% 26% 10% 1%
82 KNUDSEN Travis 14% 36% 33% 14% 3% - -
83 THAKUR Om S. 5% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
84 HOFMAN Adam - 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
85 MELCHER Jack H. - 1% 6% 24% 38% 25% 6%
86 POLAKOSKI David R. - 1% 5% 19% 34% 30% 11%
87 SINGHA Orion - 3% 12% 27% 33% 20% 5%
88 CONKLIN Jim 1% 9% 24% 33% 23% 8% 1%
89 ZHOU Stanley Q. 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2%
90 ZHANG Alec 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% -
91 SIVAKUMAR Ajit - - 1% 6% 22% 41% 30%
92 MCADOO Declan 8% 28% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
93 WELDON Benjamin - 6% 25% 39% 25% 6%
94 WESTPHAL David R. - 4% 16% 34% 34% 13%
95 JOHNSTON Conner S. 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 6%
96 NICHOLSON Dimitri E. - 5% 20% 37% 30% 8%
97 FRENCH Timothy 1% 9% 25% 35% 24% 6%
98 ZOU Xianyang (Max) 16% 37% 31% 13% 2% -
99 KILUK Andrew 1% 9% 29% 37% 20% 4%
100 MOORE Jeremy S. - - 1% 10% 29% 40% 20%
101 HANSEN Lars - 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
102 SHEPARD Trevor S. - - 1% 10% 31% 40% 18%
103 VACCARO Dominick J. 29% 43% 23% 5% -
104 STRAUSS Luke 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
105 WRIGHT Christopher 2% 11% 28% 34% 20% 5%
106 LAI Aedin 1% 12% 33% 36% 16% 2%
107 ULINICH Alexander 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 2%
108 WATT Darren 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
109 LEONE III Charles D. 1% 17% 38% 31% 11% 1%
110 BARG Jonathan 20% 38% 29% 11% 2% -
110 MING Nathan 17% 38% 31% 12% 2% -
112 CHRISTENSEN Parker 8% 29% 37% 21% 5% -
113 GOHSMAN Maxwell 12% 32% 34% 17% 4% -
114 GULLO Kenji Y. 3% 17% 33% 31% 13% 2%
115 SNIDER Jeffrey H. 2% 13% 30% 34% 18% 3%
116 CARTER Austin L. 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
116 ELLISON Harper F. 10% 31% 35% 18% 4% - -
116 DENNIS Ethan 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3% -
119 CASTELLY Luke 6% 22% 33% 26% 11% 2% -
120 HUTTO Joshua 1% 7% 22% 32% 26% 10% 2%
121 CHAN Matthew 1% 9% 25% 33% 23% 8% 1%
122 THAYER Bryce - 1% 9% 27% 39% 22% 2%
123 CHEN Brian 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
124 RACHEL Dylan 22% 42% 27% 8% 1% - -
125 SAVORETTI Francesco 3% 18% 38% 32% 9%
126 SINHA Zaan 17% 41% 31% 10% 1% -
127 PAHLAVI Kamran 17% 38% 31% 11% 2% -
128 MEGGERS Davin 29% 44% 22% 5% - -
129 SARKAR Anish 6% 26% 38% 24% 6% 1%
130 ZONE Liam 1% 5% 18% 31% 29% 14% 3%
131 LOGUE Ethan D. 2% 11% 27% 32% 21% 6% 1%
132 VENET Téva 3% 15% 30% 31% 16% 4% -
132 SO Lorenzo 27% 46% 23% 4% - - -
134 FOWLER James A. - 1% 7% 21% 35% 28% 8%
135 KIM Sullivan 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
136 CAO Brad 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
137 KRAVETZ Benjamin (Ben) D. - 4% 16% 32% 32% 14% 2%
138 ROLLO Emmett H. 7% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1% -
139 SCHARF Ryan 3% 14% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
140 HEADRICK Lance 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
141 JAIN Sarthak - 2% 11% 26% 34% 21% 5%
142 CHAWLA Armaan - 3% 12% 27% 33% 20% 5%
142 LIOU Solomon 1% 9% 24% 33% 24% 9% 1%
144 PALACIOS Justin M. 1% 7% 22% 33% 26% 10% 1%
145 BEALS Alden 28% 41% 23% 7% 1% - -
146 LONGSHORE IZEYAH T. 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 3%
147 OLIVERIUS Joseph W. - 2% 13% 32% 37% 16%
148 FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T. 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2%
149 STEPHAN Jens - 1% 8% 26% 40% 25%
150 SIMPSON Patrick 5% 22% 35% 26% 10% 1%
151 HE Zhiheng 16% 36% 32% 13% 3% -
152 MCKEEVER Luca 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4%
152 ZHANG Nathan 10% 32% 36% 18% 4% -
154 LI Benjamin 2% 13% 32% 34% 17% 3%
155 CHENG Thomas - 3% 14% 33% 35% 14%
156 TABLEMAN Doug S. - - 2% 10% 27% 38% 22%
157 OSTIGUY Cameron 8% 28% 37% 21% 6% 1% -
158 RITCHIE Phillip 1% 10% 29% 36% 19% 4% -
159 ELZAYN Hadi S. 4% 18% 32% 29% 14% 3% -
160 SCHULZE Ethan 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
161 HANNON Owen 16% 36% 31% 13% 3% - -
162 LEE Chun Po 8% 28% 35% 21% 7% 1% -
163 BASOK Nikita 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
164 CHU Allan 9% 30% 35% 20% 6% 1% -
164 HENTOSH Pierce - 4% 16% 32% 32% 14% 2%
166 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 2% 12% 27% 32% 20% 6% 1%
167 MUNOZ Humberto 1% 18% 39% 31% 10% 1%
168 SINGH Aryaman 20% 38% 29% 11% 2% -
169 JACKSON James 6% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1%
170 BRETON Jayden 5% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1%
171 MARTINEZ Gabriel 84% 15% 1% - - -
172 SAKO Ayrton J. 8% 27% 34% 22% 7% 1% -
173 BEACH John 1% 10% 29% 36% 19% 4% -
174 PERKA Michael 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2%
175 CAO Albert 1% 7% 21% 32% 27% 11% 2%
176 SHA Michael 3% 17% 32% 30% 15% 4% -
176 SERAFIN Ben 4% 20% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
176 ZHU Eric 15% 36% 33% 14% 3% - -
179 WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M. 23% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
180 ROTHKA Spencer J. 16% 35% 31% 14% 4% - -
181 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 27% 46% 23% 4% - - -
182 CHIN Dylan A. 16% 38% 31% 12% 2% - -
182 HAMZA Tudor 11% 31% 33% 18% 5% 1% -
184 LAI Boden 6% 24% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
185 FU Ethan 21% 38% 28% 11% 2% - -
185 YANG Zeph 23% 43% 26% 7% 1% - -
187 HU Robert J. 26% 41% 24% 7% 1% - -
187 DORASZELSKI Mark 15% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
189 LIU Andrew 5% 25% 41% 22% 6% 1% -
190 MEN Junda 16% 35% 31% 14% 4% - -
191 LEE JoonWon 8% 26% 34% 23% 8% 1% -
192 VAUGHN Matthew (Manny) E. 12% 33% 35% 16% 4% -
193 STRUGAR Marcus A. 15% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
193 MILLER Lance W. 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
195 PERKINS-OLLILA Justin W. 4% 21% 36% 28% 9% 1%
195 UVAROV Andrii 4% 20% 35% 29% 11% 1%
197 STENCEL Andrew E. 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 5% -
197 HUSSAIN Kamran 2% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3% -
199 COCHRAN Michael 8% 28% 36% 22% 6% 1%
200 DELISLE Jonas P. 14% 36% 33% 14% 3% - -
200 JONES Caleb 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
202 KOYFMAN Benjamin 9% 28% 34% 21% 7% 1% -
203 MARTINEZ Kenneth 93% 7% - - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.