National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div I-A Men's Épée

Tuesday, July 4, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GORIUNOV IVAN A. 100% 100% 99% 94% 70% 31% 6%
2 RODNEY Adam R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 80%
3 FULLERTON Houston T. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 29%
3 RICHARD Owen 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 3%
5 EVERS Gabriel 100% 96% 77% 40% 11% 1%
6 HE Lawrence 100% 99% 94% 73% 37% 8%
7 GAO Daniel 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 17% 3%
8 KIM Benjamin I. 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 17% 2%
9 MOSES Alexander 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 21%
10 MCGAW Julian E. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 20%
11 KIM Dylan J. 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 10%
12 SEEFELDT William Henry C. 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
13 GOHEL Dayus T. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 25%
14 KARNAS Karol 100% 98% 85% 53% 19% 3% -
15 BOYCE Samuel H. 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 30%
16 WU Jonathan 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 10%
17 KUMAR Aidan 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
18 NOWAK Jakub P. 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 40%
19 WU Byron 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 19%
20 NORBUTAS Jackson S. 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 57% 19%
21 ZHENG Haoran 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 20% 1%
22 WILSON Brent (Brent Wilson) A. 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 46% 13%
23 ZUCKER Noah L. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 22%
24 THOMAS Harris 100% 96% 78% 44% 13% 2%
25 MURPHY Thomas P. 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 10%
26 JIN Owen 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 48% 14%
27 CUMMINGS Atticus C. 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 19%
28 GARRISON Cameron 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 6%
29 PRIHODKO Max 100% 100% 95% 79% 48% 17% 3%
30 JIN Daniel 100% 99% 93% 70% 34% 7%
31 WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 26%
32 CHOI Isaac 100% 99% 86% 52% 14%
33 LEE Seungwon 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 6%
34 HURME Tommi K. 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 44%
35 MICKO Fritz K. 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 13% 1%
36 YAMASAKI Kyle A. 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 42% 10%
36 HIGGINS Branford 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 13% 2%
38 NORTH Alexander M. 100% 100% 98% 85% 57% 23% 4%
39 ZHANG Shawn 100% 99% 68% 27% 6% 1% -
40 BRISLAWN Reilly R. 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 14%
41 JONES Simon A. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 29%
41 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 100% 99% 92% 71% 39% 13% 2%
43 CHIRASHNYA Adam 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
44 PARK Frederick 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
45 MADSEN Jr Eric W. 100% 99% 92% 66% 28% 5%
46 BANKULLA Nihal R. 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
47 GALLO James 100% 99% 92% 67% 29% 4%
48 VEZMAR Evan H. 100% 95% 74% 38% 11% 1%
49 SODERBERG Alex Z. 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 34%
50 TREBON Hayden 100% 100% 95% 75% 37% 7%
51 RICHARDS Jackson D. 100% 87% 49% 15% 2%
52 FULLER George K. 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 36% 8%
53 KNOX James 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 18% 3%
53 MCDANIELS Jeremy 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 55% 17%
55 SNELL James E. 100% 100% 95% 80% 50% 19% 3%
56 NIKOLOV Peter 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
57 ZAYDMAN David M. 100% 99% 93% 73% 42% 14% 2%
58 NGUYEN Tate 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 24% 4%
59 COLLYMORE Spencer T. 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 20%
60 ZHAO Luhan 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 13%
61 LEE Noah 100% 100% 94% 67% 30% 7% 1%
62 SKAALAND Will 100% 93% 66% 30% 7% 1%
63 KROPP Jack 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 10%
64 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 100% 85% 51% 20% 5% 1% -
65 PARK Elliot 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 4%
66 WU Joseph 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 11%
67 MAO Benjamin 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 2% -
68 CARRIER Gabriel A. 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
69 SUVOROV Yuly 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
70 MCALISTER Ian 100% 98% 87% 59% 27% 7% 1%
70 MODULLA Yathin R. 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
72 KOPPE Alexander 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 2%
73 ROSTAL Scott E. 100% 100% 98% 89% 60% 19%
74 PINERO Jose J. 100% 96% 79% 44% 14% 2%
75 LIN Harrison 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% -
76 BHATNAGAR Ayan 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
76 CHEN Bailey 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% -
78 LI Patrick 100% 99% 89% 58% 18%
79 LOWE-THORPE Tyler 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 12% 2%
80 MUNLIN Donovan 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 38% 9%
81 KHANNA Nikhil 100% 99% 92% 70% 38% 12% 1%
82 KNUDSEN Travis 100% 86% 50% 17% 3% - -
83 THAKUR Om S. 100% 95% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
84 HOFMAN Adam 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 20% 3%
85 MELCHER Jack H. 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 31% 6%
86 POLAKOSKI David R. 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 11%
87 SINGHA Orion 100% 100% 97% 86% 59% 25% 5%
88 CONKLIN Jim 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
89 ZHOU Stanley Q. 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 12% 2%
90 ZHANG Alec 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 5% -
91 SIVAKUMAR Ajit 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 30%
92 MCADOO Declan 100% 92% 64% 28% 7% 1% -
93 WELDON Benjamin 100% 100% 94% 69% 31% 6%
94 WESTPHAL David R. 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 13%
95 JOHNSTON Conner S. 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 6%
96 NICHOLSON Dimitri E. 100% 100% 95% 75% 38% 8%
97 FRENCH Timothy 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 6%
98 ZOU Xianyang (Max) 100% 84% 47% 15% 3% -
99 KILUK Andrew 100% 99% 90% 62% 24% 4%
100 MOORE Jeremy S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 60% 20%
101 HANSEN Lars 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 18% 3%
102 SHEPARD Trevor S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 58% 18%
103 VACCARO Dominick J. 100% 71% 28% 5% -
104 STRAUSS Luke 100% 97% 83% 51% 19% 3%
105 WRIGHT Christopher 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5%
106 LAI Aedin 100% 99% 87% 54% 18% 2%
107 ULINICH Alexander 100% 98% 85% 54% 19% 2%
108 WATT Darren 100% 98% 85% 54% 20% 3%
109 LEONE III Charles D. 100% 99% 82% 44% 12% 1%
110 BARG Jonathan 100% 80% 41% 13% 2% -
110 MING Nathan 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% -
112 CHRISTENSEN Parker 100% 92% 63% 26% 6% -
113 GOHSMAN Maxwell 100% 88% 56% 21% 4% -
114 GULLO Kenji Y. 100% 97% 80% 46% 16% 2%
115 SNIDER Jeffrey H. 100% 98% 85% 56% 22% 3%
116 CARTER Austin L. 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% 1%
116 ELLISON Harper F. 100% 90% 58% 23% 5% - -
116 DENNIS Ethan 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 3% -
119 CASTELLY Luke 100% 94% 73% 40% 13% 2% -
120 HUTTO Joshua 100% 99% 92% 70% 38% 12% 2%
121 CHAN Matthew 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
122 THAYER Bryce 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 23% 2%
123 CHEN Brian 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
124 RACHEL Dylan 100% 78% 36% 9% 1% - -
125 SAVORETTI Francesco 100% 97% 79% 41% 9%
126 SINHA Zaan 100% 83% 42% 11% 1% -
127 PAHLAVI Kamran 100% 83% 45% 13% 2% -
128 MEGGERS Davin 100% 71% 27% 5% - -
129 SARKAR Anish 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1%
130 ZONE Liam 100% 99% 94% 77% 45% 16% 3%
131 LOGUE Ethan D. 100% 98% 87% 60% 28% 7% 1%
132 VENET Téva 100% 97% 82% 51% 21% 5% -
132 SO Lorenzo 100% 73% 27% 4% - - -
134 FOWLER James A. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
135 KIM Sullivan 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
136 CAO Brad 100% 98% 86% 57% 25% 6% 1%
137 KRAVETZ Benjamin (Ben) D. 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 16% 2%
138 ROLLO Emmett H. 100% 93% 68% 32% 8% 1% -
139 SCHARF Ryan 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
140 HEADRICK Lance 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
141 JAIN Sarthak 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 5%
142 CHAWLA Armaan 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 26% 5%
142 LIOU Solomon 100% 99% 90% 67% 34% 10% 1%
144 PALACIOS Justin M. 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 11% 1%
145 BEALS Alden 100% 72% 32% 8% 1% - -
146 LONGSHORE IZEYAH T. 100% 98% 87% 57% 21% 3%
147 OLIVERIUS Joseph W. 100% 100% 97% 85% 53% 16%
148 FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin T. 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2%
149 STEPHAN Jens 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 25%
150 SIMPSON Patrick 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 1%
151 HE Zhiheng 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% -
152 MCKEEVER Luca 100% 98% 86% 56% 22% 4%
152 ZHANG Nathan 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% -
154 LI Benjamin 100% 98% 85% 53% 20% 3%
155 CHENG Thomas 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 14%
156 TABLEMAN Doug S. 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 22%
157 OSTIGUY Cameron 100% 92% 64% 28% 6% 1% -
158 RITCHIE Phillip 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 5% -
159 ELZAYN Hadi S. 100% 96% 78% 46% 18% 4% -
160 SCHULZE Ethan 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 1%
161 HANNON Owen 100% 84% 48% 17% 3% - -
162 LEE Chun Po 100% 92% 64% 29% 8% 1% -
163 BASOK Nikita 100% 98% 87% 59% 27% 7% 1%
164 CHU Allan 100% 91% 61% 26% 7% 1% -
164 HENTOSH Pierce 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 16% 2%
166 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 100% 98% 86% 59% 27% 7% 1%
167 MUNOZ Humberto 100% 99% 81% 42% 12% 1%
168 SINGH Aryaman 100% 80% 41% 13% 2% -
169 JACKSON James 100% 94% 69% 33% 9% 1%
170 BRETON Jayden 100% 95% 72% 36% 10% 1%
171 MARTINEZ Gabriel 100% 16% 1% - - -
172 SAKO Ayrton J. 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
173 BEACH John 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 4% -
174 PERKA Michael 100% 99% 94% 74% 40% 13% 2%
175 CAO Albert 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 13% 2%
176 SHA Michael 100% 97% 80% 48% 19% 4% -
176 SERAFIN Ben 100% 96% 75% 41% 14% 2% -
176 ZHU Eric 100% 85% 50% 17% 3% - -
179 WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M. 100% 77% 36% 10% 2% - -
180 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 84% 49% 18% 4% - -
181 SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN 100% 73% 27% 4% - - -
182 CHIN Dylan A. 100% 84% 45% 14% 3% - -
182 HAMZA Tudor 100% 89% 58% 24% 6% 1% -
184 LAI Boden 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1% -
185 FU Ethan 100% 79% 41% 13% 3% - -
185 YANG Zeph 100% 77% 35% 8% 1% - -
187 HU Robert J. 100% 74% 33% 8% 1% - -
187 DORASZELSKI Mark 100% 85% 48% 16% 3% - -
189 LIU Andrew 100% 95% 70% 29% 6% 1% -
190 MEN Junda 100% 84% 49% 18% 4% - -
191 LEE JoonWon 100% 92% 66% 32% 10% 1% -
192 VAUGHN Matthew (Manny) E. 100% 88% 55% 20% 4% -
193 STRUGAR Marcus A. 100% 85% 47% 15% 2% -
193 MILLER Lance W. 100% 77% 36% 9% 1% -
195 PERKINS-OLLILA Justin W. 100% 96% 75% 39% 11% 1%
195 UVAROV Andrii 100% 96% 76% 41% 12% 1%
197 STENCEL Andrew E. 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
197 HUSSAIN Kamran 100% 98% 84% 53% 20% 3% -
199 COCHRAN Michael 100% 92% 64% 29% 7% 1%
200 DELISLE Jonas P. 100% 86% 50% 17% 3% - -
200 JONES Caleb 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 2% -
202 KOYFMAN Benjamin 100% 91% 63% 29% 8% 1% -
203 MARTINEZ Kenneth 100% 7% - - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.